Pages:
Author

Topic: Volatility determined by percentage of traders vs hodlers? (Read 269 times)

full member
Activity: 2128
Merit: 180
Its hard to see a blue chips here actually and this is different from stock market since Bitcoin is very volatile and you’ll lose money easily and traders and hodlers dictates the price obviously. If you’re going to trade in cryptomarket then you must be ready for volatility, every coins/tokens here is volatile as expected.
hero member
Activity: 2814
Merit: 734
Bitcoin is GOD
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?
While that is an interesting metric and one that I have seen a lot of times I think it is flawed in the sense that it doesn't take into account the people that are outside of the market and that are getting in and those that are inside the market and get out, it also has the flaw that for example if you want to become a long term holder but you just bought your coins using that statistic it seems that you are a trader but in fact you have the intention of becoming a long term holder, you simply did not have the time to demonstrate that this is the case.

And obviously the opposite happens as well, you may be holding your coins and you did this for a year but that doesn't make you long term holder, you have all the intentions of becoming a trader and you simply didn't because you didn't had the time or because you did not saw a single good opportunity to make a trade.
hero member
Activity: 1778
Merit: 709
[Nope]No hype delivers more than hope
I think volatility is determined only by the trader. Regardless of the percentage of the number of holders, it does not mean that they are directly involved in price changes. In fact, new traders and holders came in every day and did not cause prices to increase consistently. Holders also have no significant differences with traders, only their trading terms differ.
sr. member
Activity: 966
Merit: 306
I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?
This article Quantifying Short-Term and Long-Term Holder Bitcoin Supply. Is it what you are talking about?

The chart classifies long and short term holder with their days of holding bitcoin. The time from 100 days to 150 days (>3 months to 5 months) are important to know who are long term holders and who are short term holders. The article presented that there are 66% of circulating supply about 12.3 M bitcoin are from long term holders. The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Bitcoin supply chart shows when price goes up (bull), the total bitcoin is hold by long term holders often climbs.
hero member
Activity: 2366
Merit: 594
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?

I don't know how bluechip stocks work but I know the basics of supply and demand law. If there are huge demand for something but the supply is low then the price will surely increase like bitcoin. How does that work in the bluechip market if most of the investors are hodling, who is creating the demand on their market?
legendary
Activity: 2450
Merit: 4295
eXch.cx - Automatic crypto Swap Exchange.
My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?

Less activity in the market result to less price swings so obviously if the percentage of holders increase there would be less swings in regards to price dropping and rasing instead we'll see continuous increased in price since the demand of the coins would had been increased and they might not be enough supply to in the market to satisfy the demand.

More traders guarantees high volatility while holders guarantee stability. Traders are always after quick profit securing which is why they'll seized any opportunities they see to take profit from the market while holders careless about what the current market situations are but anticipate of a future filled with big profit result as a reward for their patience
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1139
Volatility is measured by active traders trading the market at a particular period in contrast to hoarders who will hold the coin for a long period of time. The both are important to ensure bitcoin have a controlled price through demand and supply but then, volatility isn't based on the hoarders but rather on the active traders.
Today, we have lots of hoarders in contrast to traders due to the technicality involved in trading but they all play together to make the system a success.
sr. member
Activity: 2520
Merit: 280
Hire Bitcointalk Camp. Manager @ r7promotions.com
Only traders are responsible for the price changes because actual price determined by the supply and demand which is driven by the cryptocurrency exchanges literally by the traders who are executing the trade orders. But we can say that whales are also responsible for huge price changes.
sr. member
Activity: 826
Merit: 250
Bitgesell (BGL) Decentralized Cryptocurrency!
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?
Bitcoin is the most violent coin in cryptocurrency . So anytime price will be so high or down so low.Most of bitcoin user are hold their coin if they start trading bitcoin cannot violent so high.when bitcoin get negative Or price down most of the people sell it for this panic same case on getting positive .
hero member
Activity: 2730
Merit: 585
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Traders becoming something more common definitely changes the price, but holders change the price a lot more in quicker fashion. So, what volatility shows here is that if there are more traders, we get to see a lot more swings daily but to lower level, like maybe 10% and under for trader world if they became bigger power.
I think it also depends on the amount the holders are keeping with them because if the whales are holding then yeah they will shake up the market no doubt but if there are large number of holders holding less amount of coins then they cannot change much because when they decide to sell will not happens simultaneously.

volatile it is due to lack of demand rather than supply or vice versa, not from holders,
holders keep the price from falling from support, but traders do whatever they want,
this is how cryptocurrency is very volatile.
Yeah agree, but the big whales that are holding like 10k BTC actually control the market in a big manner if even they are doing nothing but just holding because them holding itself means that the market will not crash. Imagine when the price was doing down like earlier this year and during those times if a whale dumped their coins the market might have broken into two halves.
hero member
Activity: 3164
Merit: 937
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?

I think that the price volatility would increase if the amount of hodlers increases as well.More hodlers means less Bitcoins in circulation,which means less supply of Bitcoin on the market.This combined with a not-so-stable demand for Bitcoin would cause bigger price volatility.
In order for the price volatility to decrease,we need more traders to bring more Bitcoin supply/liquidity on the market.
By the way,I don't believe that your statistical data about 65% hodlers and 35% traders is accurate.
member
Activity: 518
Merit: 33
does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?

That is most probably true and that makes so much sense, and on the other hand the number of traders could increase volatility as well, there are some coins that are a bit more stable in crypto market and I actually can see people holding them either because they are just optimistic about these coin's future or they just use these coins to pay for stuff when they shop online, for example Litecoin and Dogecoin are one of those coins that are a bit less volatile and they happen to have lower fees on their transactions too which makes them great for paying online for services and goods.
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 275
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?
Understandable that price swings and movement could really be even more when there are lots of people who had been trading and also i dont really that much
on believing into those numbers yet its not really that precisely determined on whose been holding for years and been doing active trading.We can just base off
into exchange statistics but knowing the precise numbers arent really that the same.You had mentioned about stocks are less volatile then its expected
yet price cant swing that much if you do compare with crypto assets.
Not all of stocks have low volatility because there are some stocks who have high volatility similar to cryptocurrencies, in terms of what good between trading or investing in volatility of cryptocurrencies; volatility is a matter especially if you are day trader wherein you are making profit in quick swing high or quick swing low if you are doing some shorting. A day trader should choose a cryptocurrency that have high volatility in order to maximize the gains. If you will make investing and not trading, volatility is just a little factor because as a investor you are not hourly or minutes monitoring the chart so you do not have care if the prices are making swing high or swing low in just short period of time.
hero member
Activity: 1249
Merit: 506
I think that increasing the number of traders will increase the degree of price volatility.
Any market operates on the principle of supply and demand, when people have a need to buy and sell bitcoins more, the price fluctuation will be constantly changing.
hero member
Activity: 2590
Merit: 644
The point is that the higher the dominance of Bitcoin, the volatility of other cryptos will have an effect.  And if the dominance of Bitcoin is greater, automatically there will be more Bitcoin holders than altcoins.  considering Alt will crash when BTC.D gets higher
^ There are a lot of factors that affect the volatility in bitcoin's price it is not always these two options, it could be for new investors that keep on coming in as well as slow transactions that await to be processed in exchanges. The fact that the price keeps on swinging is because of the demand and availability of bitcoins in the market because if traders and holding won't do any movements still there could be changes on the price if demand will occur from a third party which could be a new investor or a private company that acquires bitcoin in their services.
hero member
Activity: 2478
Merit: 512
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?

The point is that the higher the dominance of Bitcoin, the volatility of other cryptos will have an effect.  And if the dominance of Bitcoin is greater, automatically there will be more Bitcoin holders than altcoins.  considering Alt will crash when BTC.D gets higher
sr. member
Activity: 868
Merit: 251
HEX: Longer pays better
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?
Exactly. Bitcoin's price fluctuations are quite similar to those around us. Let's take another example like Rice. For example, in a village there are only 10 kg of rice but more than 100 households. therefore, each household has only a little rice, about 100 grams, and then the Rice shortage occurs. Certainly some households will accept to hold rice and wait until the demand increases, the price of rice will inevitably increase. it will appear a lack of price volatility. This is also part of the supply - demand theory.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1140
Hi,

I saw a statistic online, that currently lists the percentage of hodler of bitcoin (holding 1+ years) vs number of traders who hold btc 1 month or less. Currently there are 64.99% hodlers of bitcoin vs %35.01 of traders. My question is, does an increase in percentage of traders increase the magnitude of price swings? If say the percentage of hodlers of bitcoin stabilizes in the future to 90%, will the magnitude of short term price swings also decrease? In other words does volatility decrease as percentage of hodlers increases? Is that why "bluechip stocks" are less volatile? because a large percentage of the investors are holding?
Understandable that price swings and movement could really be even more when there are lots of people who had been trading and also i dont really that much
on believing into those numbers yet its not really that precisely determined on whose been holding for years and been doing active trading.We can just base off
into exchange statistics but knowing the precise numbers arent really that the same.You had mentioned about stocks are less volatile then its expected
yet price cant swing that much if you do compare with crypto assets.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1232
All the opinions and suggestions that were posted above are correct.

For traders and hodlers affect the volatility on the Bitcoin's price if more hodlers decided not to trade and then the demand will be higher which brings an increase in the price and if fewer traders and more investors decided not to trade then the price will be constant or possibly a drop in the price may occur.
The fact is the main factor that affects the volatility is the supply and demand in Bitcoin and this demand doesn't always come from traders, there are some it may also come from hodlers or a new one who wants to start investing with Bitcoin as well.

The nearest answer is, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates every now, and then that makes the price volatility due to the fact that traders and hodlers aren't doing the same activities.
full member
Activity: 1064
Merit: 100
Combo Network
volatile it is due to lack of demand rather than supply or vice versa, not from holders,
holders keep the price from falling from support, but traders do whatever they want,
this is how cryptocurrency is very volatile.
Pages:
Jump to: