Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1012. (Read 26711057 times)
March 17, 2024, 04:03:28 PM
March 17, 2024, 03:52:36 PM
Honestly we could be anywhere from Belief to Complacency ...
You mean the top might be already in?
Puh-leeze, geddaddaaheeeeya...
March 17, 2024, 03:01:17 PM
March 17, 2024, 02:51:57 PM
Improved? Sounds like a lot of unnecessary steps when simply sweeping the private key into a wallet (I usually use Mycelium) and then putting the leftovers into new addresses is so much simpler and faster.
Sweeping costs a fee. Mycelium can import private keys directly. Is that what you mean?
March 17, 2024, 02:05:40 PM
OT
My St Patty's Day, politically incorrect joke (coming from an Englishman expat who spent many holidays in beautiful Wales)
Who are the Welsh people?
They are actually the Irish that never learned to swim.
....padda boom ...pshhhh
(my Irish American friends never got that joke. I told them to go look at a map)
GO BITCOIN
March 17, 2024, 02:03:24 PM
March 17, 2024, 02:02:13 PM
I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.
I don't think so, even now the market is still showing a positive trend on bitcoin. dumping back to $61,000 - 63,000 is still reasonable, but i'm not sure about going below $60,000.
Where do you think we are now? complacency or anxiety?
Honestly we could be anywhere from Belief to Complacency ...
March 17, 2024, 02:00:01 PM
Funny thing about MSTR stock is that it has such a large bitcoin component.. so there are some difficult to control dynamics that reflect upon its price.
Enterprise value (Equity+Debt-Cash) is 2.3 times the value of their bitcoin holding.
This is a record level, it has never been so high, even during the pre-etc bullrun.
I guess Micheal Taylor has to behave very carefully to keep up with expectations.
First test is: when are they going to buy bitcoin with their cash proceeds with the second Convertible? According to my back of the envelope calculations: Tuesday.
If you see a big green candle Tuesday early morning European time, you know who it was.
March 17, 2024, 01:53:36 PM
MSTR is levered 2.2X, which means that IF bitcoin goes to roughly 31-32K, the intrinsic value of MSTR stock would approach zero.
They would probably not go bust, but they would probably lose 70-90% of their market cap in this scenario.
How likely is the "deleveraging"..maybe unlikely right now, albeit JPM started making noises about it.
https://decrypt.co/221873/microstrategy-bitcoin-buys-severe-deleveraging-jp-morgan
Maybe they want "in" on this deal, lol.
I doubt that it is as easy to break MSTR as JP Morgan would like to speculate, and maybe that is what Saylor is trying to get some of the BIG cats to do, which surely will bring the destruction and demise of the BIG cats a lot faster than they are already on a worse train than the bitcoin train seems to be the place to be, even if Saylor is seeming a wee bit psycho in recent times..They would probably not go bust, but they would probably lose 70-90% of their market cap in this scenario.
How likely is the "deleveraging"..maybe unlikely right now, albeit JPM started making noises about it.
https://decrypt.co/221873/microstrategy-bitcoin-buys-severe-deleveraging-jp-morgan
Maybe they want "in" on this deal, lol.
But this time, they cannot shut off the exchanges and/or remove the buy button - at least when it comes to bitcoin.
These funds were shorting Gamestop because they thought the company was toast so they saw an opportunity. A few apes coordinated on Reddit to keep buying buying buying, 10 dollars at a time. That wouldn't have been enough on itself, but the original apes had done much better than that - they'd bought a lot (I mean a lot) of out-of-the-money call options. Options in general have intrinsic multiplier properties: $1 of options could easily move $100 of stock or more. What happened is the apes made quite a killing - both original apes and "I jumped on the wagon later on" apes.
Now I don't even know if MicroStrategy is listed on any significant option exchange, but I bet Saylor has some safety net ready. Imagine short squeezing/gamma squeezing JPMorgan and buying back the stock you sold to buy bitcoin at half the price.
Now I don't even know if MicroStrategy is listed on any significant option exchange, but I bet Saylor has some safety net ready. Imagine short squeezing/gamma squeezing JPMorgan and buying back the stock you sold to buy bitcoin at half the price.
Funny thing about MSTR stock is that it has such a large bitcoin component.. so there are some difficult to control dynamics that reflect upon its price.
Interesting times ahead, gentlemen. Get your popcorn ready. And if the popcorn shop has cheap MSTR out-of-the-money calls, maybe grab a couple bags of those too. Worst case, you'll lose a few hundred. Best case, you'll gain a few thousands.
Have you read till the end? Good. So where's your (pop)corn?
Have you read till the end? Good. So where's your (pop)corn?
Here, we are preaching to to the choir a little bit, but there still can be some challenges in terms of who is doing what and what are going to be the next attack vectors that relate to bitcoin, and there could even end up being a few casualties among us....
Oh yes, Sunday now
Weekend dump before the pump
Healthy correction
BTC is really for the strong hearted... and those who look at it from macro-level. Weekend dump before the pump
Healthy correction
Just when we are all enthralled with the enthusiasm of $100k price, it is already heading north not because it is the right direction at this time but just to prove that no one can accurately predict its movement. The best we can do while it decides what it wants to do. Anyways, 1BTC = 1BTC, and you only lose when you sell.
Now I see why people do this "1BTC = 1BTC" thingie...
It is because it is so difficult to keep track of its price... but still. it just isn't saying anything... even though maybe someone is using the expression to say to hang onto your BTC and/or stack more of them if you can no matter how much they might cost in terms of fiat. Even though I don't really disagree with it, I still don't really like the expression.
I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.
I don't think so, even now the market is still showing a positive trend on bitcoin. dumping back to $61,000 - 63,000 is still reasonable, but i'm not sure about going below $60,000.See those wicks down in "belief"? That's where we are at.
These are long scale charts, not weeklies, lol.
We might even be further left of the chart because any subsequent correction after a hype period may well not even correct back down to our current BTC price levels.
It's fun to see the bears come out on the weekend and try to be cute only to go back in hiding come Monday. Pathetic.
I don’t think the bears came out as much as Saylor’s billion dollar buy sent it upwards previously. I fear he may have already made his $500,000,000 buy as well since he did his last one over the weekend. Monday could be a bloodbath as a result, but it’s probably important to get BTC out of the weak hands that purchased just for quick gains because it was rising.Also, Saylor is the one dumping MSTR. Is he doing that to “teach his investors a lesson” or is he just choosing to take profits on an investment he feels is overvalued?
He is using the money printer go bbbbbrrrrr that is within his powers to buy more sound money, which is bitcoin... which then contributes to causing his share prices to go up more, rinse and repeat.
March 17, 2024, 01:51:44 PM
It's fun to see the bears come out on the weekend and try to be cute only to go back in hiding come Monday. Pathetic.
I don’t think the bears came out as much as Saylor’s billion dollar buy sent it upwards previously. I fear he may have already made his $500,000,000 buy as well since he did his last one over the weekend. Monday could be a bloodbath as a result, but it’s probably important to get BTC out of the weak hands that purchased just for quick gains because it was rising.You mean that other BIG players are going to dump on Saylor just to attempt to "teach him a lesson?"
No, I mean that Saylor’s billion dollar smash buy sent the price artificially higher and now it’s settling back to where it would have been otherwise.
Also, Saylor is the one dumping MSTR. Is he doing that to “teach his investors a lesson” or is he just choosing to take profits on an investment he feels is overvalued?
March 17, 2024, 01:03:28 PM
March 17, 2024, 01:00:34 PM
I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.
I don't think so, even now the market is still showing a positive trend on bitcoin. dumping back to $61,000 - 63,000 is still reasonable, but i'm not sure about going below $60,000.
Where do you think we are now? complacency or anxiety?
Neither....we are at "optimism" or "belief", imho.
See those wicks down in "belief"? That's where we are at.
These are long scale charts, not weeklies, lol.
March 17, 2024, 12:57:53 PM
I drive a Toyota and really love it. I would not go near a Ferrari or Lambo, even if you gifted it to me.
No vroom-vroom for you?
I am perfectly fine to drive that (and had Camry before, when it was a car almost 1/3 bigger), but a "muscular car" could be a lot of fun.
That said, I enjoy my beemer, but now thinking of buying MX-5 for giggles (will try it soon).
It's low and sporty...it is not Ferrari or McLaren GT..maybe I should learn to drive a "stick" first, though, albeit at least one MX-5 model is auto.
March 17, 2024, 12:43:52 PM
I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.
I don't think so, even now the market is still showing a positive trend on bitcoin. dumping back to $61,000 - 63,000 is still reasonable, but i'm not sure about going below $60,000.
Where do you think we are now? complacency or anxiety?
The index is still showing levels at "extreme greed", can we expect a reversal to $70,000 in the next few days?
As we expect, hopefully before the halving happens we can touch $100,000 for the first time, LFG!
March 17, 2024, 12:37:56 PM
It's fun to see the bears come out on the weekend and try to be cute only to go back in hiding come Monday. Pathetic.
I don’t think the bears came out as much as Saylor’s billion dollar buy sent it upwards previously. I fear he may have already made his $500,000,000 buy as well since he did his last one over the weekend. Monday could be a bloodbath as a result, but it’s probably important to get BTC out of the weak hands that purchased just for quick gains because it was rising.You mean that other BIG players are going to dump on Saylor just to attempt to "teach him a lesson?"
I have my doubts on that kind of theory, especially since it is likely the case that the ETF providers are still onboarding newbies, so they don't really have any incentive to allow the BTC price to dip too muchedly.
So perhaps Jaime Diamond and some of his buddies are going to be the losers in this if they are actually continuing to bet against bitcoin in any more than mere rhetorical ways. In other words, if Jaime Diamond and the other bitcoin haters actually put their money where there mouth is and they bet against bitcoin, they are likely going to be the ones who actually get reckt in meaningful ways, so I am not sure if they are really willing to play that card and to bet against bitcoin, especially when it is in the midst of no man's land and also with other current circumstances that are ongoingly causing UPpity price dynamics (and perhaps momentum?) on dee cornz.
[edited out]
I agree with what you're saying, and you are describing my situation quite accurately. The thing is, I have reached a stage where I have enough BTC (even though the amount may be considered quite low for many WOers' standards) that I don't feel I need to buy more, and I also have enough fiat to use for everyday expenses and to sustain a good lifestyle. And new fiat keeps coming in every month. So, why should I shave off from my BTC stash? Ok. that all makes sense. You are in that kind of limbo part of your bitcoin journey in which you mostly have enough.
Yet, I still feel a psychological need to shave off small amounts (a few thousand dollars every now and then), just to enjoy using them for the fun of it. Buying things, traveling, doing fun stuff. And yes, I do feel I still have plenty left, even to the point of not being able to live long enough to really spend them all. It's a strange feeling actually, when you consider that I don't generally have the need to buy luxury stuff. I drive a Toyota and really love it.
The Lexus is the luxury version of the Toyota..
I would not go near a Ferrari or Lambo, even if you gifted it to me. Having said that, there are many very expensive things that I'd like to own, that would not appeal to most people.
I don't think there's anything wrong with Saylor. His material needs are satisfied many lifetimes over, with his fiat inflows. His Bitcoin stash may be serving a higher purpose for him. Perhaps, he envisions a time when Bitcoin will give him absolute control and dominance over things that go beyond personal material needs. Come to think of it, this last part doesn't sound very healthy to me, but being a multi-billionaire, and fueled by the very realistic, even near-certain prospect of Bitcoin's multi-magnitude price appreciation, can elevate one's grandiosity to extreme levels. So, maybe you're right in that there is something "wrong" with him. He seems very likable when he talks, and it's fun to read about his BTC purchases. Those laser eyes... Looking forward to putting mine back on when price surpasses $100k.
I don't think there's anything wrong with Saylor. His material needs are satisfied many lifetimes over, with his fiat inflows. His Bitcoin stash may be serving a higher purpose for him. Perhaps, he envisions a time when Bitcoin will give him absolute control and dominance over things that go beyond personal material needs. Come to think of it, this last part doesn't sound very healthy to me, but being a multi-billionaire, and fueled by the very realistic, even near-certain prospect of Bitcoin's multi-magnitude price appreciation, can elevate one's grandiosity to extreme levels. So, maybe you're right in that there is something "wrong" with him. He seems very likable when he talks, and it's fun to read about his BTC purchases. Those laser eyes... Looking forward to putting mine back on when price surpasses $100k.
He does seem likable, and it could be that he is just battling with guys like Jaime Diamond.
BTW, my take on "we" is that, deep down, it's always royal...
Maybe I can stop specifying then? When using it (we), frequently it just seems a bit ambiguous.
The index is still showing levels at "extreme greed", can we expect a reversal to $70,000 in the next few days?
Yes.
The index is still showing levels at "extreme greed", can we expect a reversal to $70,000 in the next few days?
Whoaza!!! That surely comes off as bettable.
we haven't even reached the 2021 ATH when corrected for inflation. plenty of upside left
we even don't have weekly candle above previous ATH.. maybe need some correction/consolidations before really pass it.Sounds like very wishful thinking to this here cat... which just seems like a way to lose money by either selling too many cornz too soon or failing/refusing to buy enough to prepare ur lil selfie for UPpity.
March 17, 2024, 12:35:11 PM
Improved? Sounds like a lot of unnecessary steps when simply sweeping the private key into a wallet (I usually use Mycelium) and then putting the leftovers into new addresses is so much simpler and faster.
Why complicate things?
Why complicate things?
It's a safer method. Your PC could have been hacked and, thereby, your Mycelium could have been affected.
How often this happens-maybe infrequently, but the internet is filled with stories of hacked accounts, albeit these stories are mostly on a s-tcoin side where they have "contracts" to worry about; bitcoin (so far) has been much more straightforward.
I have Mycelium on an Android device that has never been rooted so the chances of it having been hacked are pretty slim. Also I try to never leave anything in Mycelium for longer than it take for one confirmation.
I don't really trust any wallet.
March 17, 2024, 12:34:47 PM
The index is still showing levels at "extreme greed", can we expect a reversal to $70,000 in the next few days?
I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.
https://twitter.com/0xhedge32/status/1768208346329366869?s=12&t=GOxgUHAih5V6rQN5toiPJQ
We all saw this one gazillion times already.
The twitter "guy" doesn't even say where we are at in his opinion.
I would say, maybe "optimism", but according to all social metrics we are nowhere close to the "mania/thrill" yet.
79 is a lagging indicator too. We are not more than 70 rn, after a few days of declines.
well showing this now
Is either mad genius and we are all fucked or very premature and just for weak hands.
I personally shaved some off at 70k and 73k so I can hodl quite a bit longer.
March 17, 2024, 12:24:54 PM
Believe it or not, this kind of "more solid dump" is good for the price in the long (in this cycle) term. As much fun as a continuous ATH is, the reality is that price overheating "too much too fast" usually ends bad.
This is -perfectly- FINE.
This is -perfectly- FINE.
Yes. This is the market’s way of making sure that nobody gets a free ride. Too many people see the price going up and dump in some money with ridiculous leverage trying to become overnight millionaires. That isn’t fair for the rest of us who have stacked for years, so the market wipes out all leverage any chance it gets. This is just so longtime Bitcoiners don’t have their lunch eaten by fly by night gamblers posing as investors.
March 17, 2024, 12:10:36 PM
The index is still showing levels at "extreme greed", can we expect a reversal to $70,000 in the next few days?
I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.
https://twitter.com/0xhedge32/status/1768208346329366869?s=12&t=GOxgUHAih5V6rQN5toiPJQ
We all saw this one gazillion times already.
The twitter "guy" doesn't even say where we are at in his opinion.
I would say, maybe "optimism", but according to all social metrics we are nowhere close to the "mania/thrill" yet.
79 is a lagging indicator too. We are not more than 70 rn, after a few days of declines.
As long as its not "Complacency" ...
March 17, 2024, 12:03:31 PM
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