Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1020. (Read 26711005 times)
March 15, 2024, 05:17:54 AM
Yes Yes this is the Bitcoin I know and love. Bring it on
March 15, 2024, 05:11:28 AM
-9.6% from the ATH. Perhaps Binance/Bitfinex longs squeeze? At least I don't see anything suspicious about Coinbase or ETF outflows. But there always will be manipulators in these two exchanges specifically, perhaps related to the 'house'. It has to be someone familiar with all complicated positions/options, etc. It is funny that there will always be plenty of victims who manage to lose big amount of money even in the most stable and long bull run in the history of Bitcoin. Imagine if these billions of fiat lost each day were invested at the price of 15K a year and something ago. That would be 4.5x profit. But the lack of knowledge and wider perspective leads to gambling and always losing.
I wonder who is using leverage on BTC in 2024.
I used to do it and it was exciting, for a few months in a row I had done more than 1 million $ in trades per month. I managed to not lose money, but I didn't earn any either, only the exchange was making money.
Also at the time (2017 I think) I could see my ~1BTC orders move the market so that was exciting, now I doubt that still would do the same.
March 15, 2024, 05:03:22 AM
March 15, 2024, 04:20:59 AM
March 15, 2024, 04:15:39 AM
Poor again.
oh well.
Dinner....
It’s over. Seriously though, it’s funny the way human behavior works. I too am sad seeing this drop and it feels like the end of the world. However, it’s important to remember that we just dropped 4 days worth of gains. That’s basically nothing. We’ll see where it goes from here, but I don’t think we’ve come close to the high of this cycle yet. oh well.
Dinner....
.. yet a so far recovery our recovery 4 hours later is right around 4.15% which would be $71,400-ish/$68,555. Yeah the numbers do not mean the same thing when measured on the way down versus on the way back up. and yeah maybe this recovery is going to be a fake out and we are going to have more droppening.. but still.. wake me up when we get some correction that is either deeper and/or more sustained.. maybe more than 12% would be interesting (or worthy of news) and maybe lasting for a day or so rather than a few hours... that might be helpful to any potential DOWNity thesis.
chartbuddy has 45880 posts
philipma1957 has 44992 posts
grand total of 90872 posts
when honey badger tops us?
March 2024
April 2024
May. 2024
Later then may?
never?
Of course, both of you are going to keep posting, so it is a moving target, so I am thinking May-ish.. but yeah, you never know... we could get a blow off top (meaning a period of temporary overexcuberance) that crosses above such threshold in April.. I have a hard time with it happening this month.. maybe giving it less than 22% odds for this month... but still nothing to sneeze at - up to 22% odds for this month.philipma1957 has 44992 posts
grand total of 90872 posts
when honey badger tops us?
March 2024
April 2024
May. 2024
Later then may?
never?
I hope it is soon
I mean if we are given five choices, which you have given, then we try to guess the most likely to happen. You have covered all of the possibilities, so maybe we could boil them down to 100% and assign odds to each one. What is wrong with that?
Here's my ballpark off-the-cuff attempt to assign actual probabilities to each of the choices (based on current data and my own thinking about the matter).. .which currently shows May with the highest results.. but what the fuck do I know?
March 2024 - 17%-ish
April 2024 - 24%
May. 2024 - 29.5%
Later then may? 28%
never? 1.5% or less
Total = 100%
Please note that earlier I had assigned 22% odds to March, but now after I filled in the whole spectrum of possibilities, I had to down grade my own assignment of my own March numbers from 22% to 17%-ish, so I filled in the other possibilities for each of the answers to make them add up to 100% in total.. and then also to show how I resulted at May 2024 as the highest probability...
You will also see that my May results are not even greater than 50%, but if you add up all of my numbers for March, April and May, I am probably giving too high of odds because they add up to 70.5%-ish which seems a bit outrageous when I think about if that is even realistic to have that high of a probability assignment to such a thing.. but for now, I am going to stick with those numbers..
I have no problem being wrong and I am now thinking that I might be overly bullish with these actual numbers.. especially since life is full of surprises, yet I am doing my best based on what is in my thinking at this particular moment based on a scenario that you presented that already shows that it contains all of the possibilities so whatever we do, our numbers have to add up to 100%.
I would say exceedingly over-bullish with those numbers ... my guesses would be more like:
March 2024 - 1%
April 2024 - 5%
May 2024 - 10%
Later than May 2024 - 80%
Never - 4%
Obviously the longer it takes the more likely "never" becomes as ChartBuddy and Philip's postings continue to stretch the target ever higher ...
March 15, 2024, 04:15:13 AM
Are we poor AGAIN? 
It sucks to wake up and see that you've lost 10% of your networth overnight, because of some gambling morons. But the real loss is for them, not for us. It is impossible to have a vertical line up forever 
And for the last 16 months it was mainly up, very rarely sideways. Meanwhile, going further down into 65s. Oh, well, I guess today we won't see another ATH. 
March 15, 2024, 04:13:12 AM
What the hell is going on with these dumps? An effort by certain forces to keep the price low or just normal selling? Seems kind of orchestrated to me, 2 decent recoveries then smackdowns, I haven't seen that kind of price action for a while. I guess it could just be all the degen future traders. Anyway clearing out the weak hands around the former ATH is probably a good thing.
March 15, 2024, 04:01:17 AM
March 15, 2024, 03:47:26 AM
Are we poor AGAIN?
March 15, 2024, 03:03:21 AM
March 15, 2024, 02:40:37 AM
-9.6% from the ATH. Perhaps Binance/Bitfinex longs squeeze? At least I don't see anything suspicious about Coinbase or ETF outflows. But there always will be manipulators in these two exchanges specifically, perhaps related to the 'house'. It has to be someone familiar with all complicated positions/options, etc. It is funny that there will always be plenty of victims who manage to lose big amount of money even in the most stable and long bull run in the history of Bitcoin. Imagine if these billions of fiat lost each day were invested at the price of 15K a year and something ago. That would be 4.5x profit. But the lack of knowledge and wider perspective leads to gambling and always losing.
March 15, 2024, 02:21:16 AM
.
March 15, 2024, 02:09:02 AM
bitcoin - 7% in 24 hours!! can still be tolerated
March 15, 2024, 02:01:14 AM
March 15, 2024, 01:03:24 AM
March 15, 2024, 12:40:36 AM
$30k
Sorry guys this was your last chance to get it below $30k
Sorry guys this was your last chance to get it below $30k
$67.96k
this is your last chance to get it below $70k
If you ignored above you have chance on this.
March 15, 2024, 12:01:16 AM
March 14, 2024, 11:03:23 PM
March 14, 2024, 10:55:07 PM
Ever notice how with every dip the MSM tries to attribute it to some news?
So what's this dip? The news that Craig Wrong is not Satoshi?
So what's this dip? The news that Craig Wrong is not Satoshi?
March 14, 2024, 10:37:13 PM
we ded?
Just setting the bear trap. Gotta let the shorts get comfortable enough to double down. I wouldn’t be shocked if this went all the way down to $50K, but the real fireworks are still months out. I suspect by Halloween this will look like a buying opportunity.
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