Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion - page 10295. (Read 26576738 times)

Quote from: Bitcoinaire on May 28, 2019, 07:23:44 PM

This chart has some great info!

$BTC: Still waiting on that 30%+ pullback?
Bitcoin had eight 30%+ pullbacks last market uptrend but the average time between each pullback was 98 days
BTC had a serious 26.3% pullback on May 17th, which means the next major retrace could be a couple months away

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1133371092175863808

It had that pullback on bitstamp only. all the other exchanges were between 16 - 19% average of 17.5%

It only went that low on bitstamp because of the 4000 sell wall.

It's going to dump slow but steady soon ending at $2500 before the year is out imho.

I hope you didn't mortgage your home to fund your short position. There are way too many homeless folks already.

my home is quite safe.

and I don't think it's people going short that need to worry.
https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

Since you are predicting a price of $2500 ... you need to worry a lot. It seems you are not even close to understanding how Bitcoin works. You are basically predicting and counting on a total failure of the bitcoin network.

like it has for long periods before you mean? Like when miners mined at a loss? like when they had to folk it to reduce the sha256 hash power so that the price could keep up with the profit curve, with countless forks thereafter. Like when they have to hire an army of bull trolls to maintain the bull phase . Like when they have to DDOS multiple sites, log multiple people out of trading accounts during breakouts to make it work? or are you discussing something different?

Wow you are really showing a lack of understanding. Many events did happen, but they were all short term. If the price were to crash as low as you are hoping for the blocks times would slow down to hours or even days. The network couldn't survive that. Yes the difficulty would adjust, but it could take months and at that point there wouldn't be any interest left. All that would be left is a few altcoins and crypto controlled by governments and banks. So your $2500 bet is a sucker bet.

It is possible that events could cause a quick plunge to those levels. It is highly unlikely you would be able to cover though.

Now if you were banking on BTC dropping back to $8000 I would think you have some sense. Heck $7000 is possible, just not as likely. We might even see days at $5000 but those prices aren't network killers. Given time the network could support a $2500 price point, but that would be so slow that a short position would have other problems. It is difficult to maintain a short position for many months or years. Well unless you're position is so tiny it doesn't really matter.

AlcoHoDL

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Addicted to HoDLing!

I see that some seemingly intelligent people here support Craig S. Wright... Directly or indirectly. I wonder why. It defies belief how anyone in their right mind cannot see the fraud that he is and the damage to Bitcoin he and his friends are causing...

nutildah's post above shows just a few of the evidence against him. And yet, there are people that support him and his shitcoins. Human stubbornness and/or stupidity is infinite, it seems...

OTOH, maybe this is good, as it has shown (and will continue to show) the robustness and strength of BTC, and how it can resist attacks and come out stronger than ever.

Bring it on...!

JSRAW

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forget shit coins they are not even in the race but only their bag holders wishing for some miracle, unfortunately all shit coins wants to become Next Bitcoin only in Price range, that's it. my Portfolio is 90% in BTC so I care less about other shitcoins.

Meanwhile kenzawak posting some good meme for GOT Cheesy

Quote from: kenzawak on May 28, 2019, 08:46:48 AM

Paashaas

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Bitcoin is valuable because it's:

Hard - secure - durable - transparent - permissionless - unconfiscatable - open-source - borderless - useful - scarce - P2P - sound - portable - divisible - immutable - empowering
programmable - decentralized - sovereign - trustless - neutral - global.

I don't see all of these characteristics in shitcoins.

DaRude

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In order to dump coins one must have coins

Quote from: infofront on May 28, 2019, 10:01:53 PM

Quote from: DaRude on May 28, 2019, 08:06:27 PM

Quote from: jbreher on May 28, 2019, 06:46:43 PM

Quote from: DaRude on May 28, 2019, 05:26:17 PM

6-If this would to happen, BTC would just fork, adjusting difficulty and freezing his coins (you gotta be pretty retarded to think that people who believe in BTC would just give up and switch to BSV to blindly follow the leader "Satoshi"). This is bitcoin, we trust in math not in deities.

Let me see if I have this correct. You think that, should Satoshi start cashing in some amount of his Bitcoins, that the community should fork to deny Satoshi the fruit of his labor?

Divorce the question from whether or not CSW has any relation to Satoshi - that's irrelevant. But I really want to know if you think such an action by the community is warranted.

You took the quote out of context, but let me see if i can spell this out for you "cashing in some amount" is different from crashing the price and then 51% attacking it to destroy the network. Did you watch the video at all? BTC is not a cult and has grown beyond Satoshi. If any entity attempts to destroy BTC, an appropriate action must be taken, even if that entity is "Satoshi". Personally i can live with the idea of Satoshi gone cuckoo or that he wasn't a perfect person (sold guns drugs etc...)

Now to answer your question as phrased, personally i don't have an issue with Satoshi responsibly cashing out and even endorsing BSV (I support ideas not people). But as i previously wrote on this topic, realistically speaking, it'll be very hard for someone to conclusive prove that they're Satoshi. Especially in case of CSW, who couldn't have distanced himself further from Satoshi if he tried. So if CSW has private keys, we would most definitely fork, and then market would decide (but if he kills off one fork [to force people to follow his new chain] he'd make everyone's decision that much easier)

We all knew what we were getting into with bitcoin. Satoshi could come back at any time and dump his entire stash. Most of us have made a calculated bet that this won't happen.

Forking away is not an option. We'd be no better than the cult of Vitalik forking away after getting butthurt about the DAO "hack".

Well first of all i think its important to differentiate between Satoshi coming back, and Satoshi's coins being dumped. i.e.
-If CSW can prove in some court that he is Satoshi but can't move a single coin, after a short BSV pump no one will care the world will move on
-On the other hand if BTC1MM gets dumped across exchanges, even with a signed message of "i'm not CSW", might bring BTC to its knees.

That would be a black swan event, but I can't imaging any person forcing me to abandon the idea of BTC for a unlimited blocks at BSV (its just too retarded).

if the option comes down to no BTC or fork BTC, i'd go with whatever name they choose and whoever will lead it as long as they alight with my idea/vision of BTC

nutildah

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Speculating about whether CSW holds Satoshi's keys is even more futile than speculating on the future price of bitcoin.

He simply doesn't have them. He's been caught in lie after lie, con after con. Every claim he has made thus far has been proven to be false. Exhibit A:

Wright says he will see BCH "trade at zero for a few years."

BSV is currently a fraction of the price of BCH, which is a much smaller fraction of the price of BTC. He was wrong. He was obviously just making threats out of moody arrogance.

Exhibit B:

Wright changes a blog entry to make it appear he used the word "cryptocurrency" in 2008.

As this example (and many others) demonstrate, he is a serial forger and will say/do anything to make it appear he invented bitcoin.

Exhibit C:

Wright announces his "departure" from bitcoin in 2016.

He couldn't bear staying out of the limelight after getting a taste of it, so he came back shortly thereafter, but this time with even less "proof" that he was Satoshi.

Some of Craig's many other fibs:

- Satoshi is a lawyer.
- Satoshi thinks anonymity is the "shield of cowards".
- Satoshi thinks bitcoin is meant to be bank- and government-friendly.
- Satoshi believed in patenting everything under the sun.

This will end badly for everybody invested in the idea that these two people are the same.

infofront

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Shitcoin Minimalist

Quote from: DaRude on May 28, 2019, 08:06:27 PM

Quote from: jbreher on May 28, 2019, 06:46:43 PM

Quote from: DaRude on May 28, 2019, 05:26:17 PM

jbreher

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lose: unfind ... loose: untight

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 28, 2019, 08:43:28 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 28, 2019, 02:16:36 PM

But it's being bandied around by all the usual shillspects on twitter recently.. perhaps in advance of the SV Shindig.

I have been meaning to answer back your responce to me... but busy.. life... etc.

That said, without going "Aussie man bad" do you not think that warning/threat is

1. Horrible. Horrible. Horrible. Bad game theory. Does decades of damage to the entire sector. Undermines the legitimacy of the Bitcoin and the entire crypto sector. Shows that it's all being controlled by a madman etc.

2. The most un-Satoshi like thing possible considering his writings that we have.

So we have evil, out of character, and possibly all a lie. Right?

Well....

1) I dunno. The pervasive narrative in this here space is that everything out of Craig's mouth is either: a lie, or; simply wrong. As such, how could anything he say undermine the legitimacy of the sector?

This is not an argument. Well it's a circular one. Do not use the reverse of something I did not say to refute what I said.

Well, what you said was "...do you not think that warning/threat is 1. Horrible. Horrible. Horrible. ..." Your words there refer not to the potential action to which the warning/threat refers, but to the warning/threat itself. If you meant otherwise (which is apparent in the next bit of your reply), perhaps you should have indicated so.

OTOH, if he has the capability to carry out such a threat, how would his huge advance warning not be a good thing?

If I planned to release a doomsday virus onto a continent and gave them a year and a half notice... And then shrugged my shoulders pointing to a 4chan post as that continent was ravaged by that virus, would I have not acted as a saint? C'mon. Another non argument. Warnings are nice. What he says he would DO is terrible.

I see again that you thought you wrote something other than what you actually did write. Nevertheless, you think him using his funds to accomplish his goals in a fully legal manner is somehow "terrible"? Are we not all free to use whichever resources we have legitimate ownership of to affect any outcome we may desire, as long as the rights (note 'rights') of others are not violated?

No, you don't have a right to be protected from the consequences of your stupid investment decisions.

Quote from: dyask on May 28, 2019, 09:30:21 PM

2) I dunno again. Before vanishing, Satoshi revealed very little of his personal proclivities. I see no evidence therein to support the notion that he might not use his substantial war chest in order to tilt the market in favor of what he perceives as the more faithful rendition of his ideals. What exactly am I missing in his writings?

His posts on this forum reveal so much about his character. He certainly did not see bitcoin as the panopticon for the State that Wright is trying to sell.

Again, you are bypassing what you wrote, and substituting something else of novel construction. Nevertheless, what panopticon are you speaking of? CSW talks about traceability and the difference between anonymous and private, this is true. However, he is not seeking changes to the system in order to give additional tools to law enforcement. He is merely pointing out the already existing characteristics of Bitcoin - whether SV or BTC. For you to put your fingers in your figurative ears and chant "muh anonymity" to avoid hearing the reality does not change it one whit.

And seeing as you merely sidestepped the question, I will ask again: I see no evidence therein to support the notion that he might not use his substantial war chest in order to tilt the market in favor of what he perceives as the more faithful rendition of his ideals. What exactly am I missing in his writings?

Quote

But MUCH more than them he is trying to sell it to the CENTRAL FUCKING BANKS.

I thought our collective thesis included the proposition that Bitcoin is a superior money? If it is, then of course central banks will end up using it. The only way that they would not in the end game get involved in Bitcoin is if it is an inferior form of money. The sooner we get to such a condition is that much less time idiots like Rep Sherman have to try to pull it down.

Quote

And FWIW My bet is he is clearly full of shit.

He may well be (though my bet is hedged). But this entire sidebar started with the hypothetical that he would be able to carry out the implied and expressed action.

jonoiv

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Quote from: Bitcoinaire on May 28, 2019, 07:23:44 PM

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1133371092175863808

I hope you didn't mortgage your home to fund your short position. There are way too many homeless folks already.

my home is quite safe.

and I don't think it's people going short that need to worry.
https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

DaRude

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In order to dump coins one must have coins

Quote from: jonoiv on May 28, 2019, 09:14:23 PM

Quote from: DaRude on May 28, 2019, 08:55:04 PM

Quote from: Bitcoinaire on May 28, 2019, 07:23:44 PM

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1133371092175863808

I hope you didn't mortgage your home to fund your short position. There are way too many homeless folks already.

my home is quite safe.

and I don't think it's people going short that need to worry.
https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

Not sure where they source their data from but bitfinex has BTC32.200 over $280MM shorted
https://www.bitfinex.com/stats

it's from the BFX api, same as this site
https://datamish.com/d/000000004/btcusd?refresh=20s&orgId=1

the stats page on bitfinex doesn't seem to update, not sure if it's hourly, daily, weekly but the API is live afaik.

Umm try again, sorry to bust your "bear data source" which inflates longs and deflates shorts

Quote

Rates on Margin Funding

Average rates of the open funding (positions) as of May 29, 2019 - 02:34:49 AM UTC.
Currency Flash Return Rate Total sum of active funding Total amount used in margin positions
...
BTC 0.0107% 33,873.90 32,230.27

From https://www.bitfinex.com/stats

dyask

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Quote from: Bitcoinaire on May 28, 2019, 07:23:44 PM

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1133371092175863808

I hope you didn't mortgage your home to fund your short position. There are way too many homeless folks already.

my home is quite safe.

and I don't think it's people going short that need to worry.
https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

jojo69

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diamond-handed zealot

Quote from: DaRude on May 28, 2019, 08:55:04 PM

It's going to dump slow but steady soon ending at $2500 before the year is out imho.

dude

you are seriously bumming me out man

jonoiv

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Quote from: Bitcoinaire on May 28, 2019, 07:23:44 PM

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1133371092175863808

I hope you didn't mortgage your home to fund your short position. There are way too many homeless folks already.

my home is quite safe.

and I don't think it's people going short that need to worry.
https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

Not sure where they source their data from but bitfinex has BTC32.200 over $280MM shorted
https://www.bitfinex.com/stats

DaRude

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In order to dump coins one must have coins

Quote from: Bitcoinaire on May 28, 2019, 07:23:44 PM

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1133371092175863808

I hope you didn't mortgage your home to fund your short position. There are way too many homeless folks already.

my home is quite safe.

and I don't think it's people going short that need to worry.
https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

Not sure where they source their data from but bitfinex has BTC32.200 over $280MM shorted
https://www.bitfinex.com/stats

cAPSLOCK

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Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 28, 2019, 02:16:36 PM

This is not an argument. Well it's a circular one. Do not use the reverse of something I did not say to refute what I said. Let us assume he has access to original blocks in the "tulip trust" and plans to sell them. How is this not going to ruin the legitimacy of Bitcoin probably forever. Let's say he sells every last one of his millions of bitcoins and buys every last one of the BSV coins with the proceeds. Bitcoin will crash, as will all the alts. BSV will skyrocket, and then the entire world will see that the "new money system" was invented by a megalomaniac willing to ruin lives and destroy fortunes. Trust in BSV will be virtually nill. Central banks will create a competing, and equally centralized coin and the world will flock to the devil the know and away from the devil they do not know. They will be HONEST in their creation of a centralized system (let's not kid ourselves BSV with a single actor holding probably 25% of the coins after the sale of BTC and purchase of BSV, running on a network designed to centralized will be... ta da... a centralized system) and their centralized system will use good centralized databases and will have no need to provide security through POW.

OTOH, if he has the capability to carry out such a threat, how would his huge advance warning not be a good thing?