Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1046. (Read 26710492 times)

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Oh now is crystal clear to me thanks God bless  you

have you tried checking Amazon though you won't see any eeePC901 but can a laptop of 10 to 11 inch with more one USB port but I advise you just go for the expected to live longer since its newer and you can easily fix it when any issues arise from it and with a USB extension hub you don't have to bother much if it has one USB port


Literally and I might be the happiest man around that time, pray it happens though  others will still come and speak ill about bitcoin after that while others make false speculation like its the End of Bitcoin but I will be more concerned about stacking in order to have the final laugh when bull comes again

Not too long of a reply today  

The red bit is almost exciting.


Speculation isn't a guessing game, it's based on theories without proper evidence to back it up.
Hence: when a theory is untested, it's speculation, as simple as that (whether accurate or not).


I was thinking of this chart as a representation of that.


Lol, that's fair enough.


I'm betting more on up than down here, but sure, with capital on stand by I'm certainly not 100% long, as I usually am in fairness. The whole structure just all seems a bit "iffy" to me, not much else. I never had this feeling in Bitcoin before, even when it dropped to $15.5K, sure I thought that it could reach $12K by the end of the year, but otherwise the whole idea of a down year, a recovery year, a consolidation year and an up year was all very much in tact, despite the price changes. It's simply the current price vs time that I'm not convinced by, not much else, not any bearish signs in the market that's for sure.

Since understanding Bitcoin in 2017, the whole 4-year cycle gave me a lot of faith, as it was something that could be trusted and relied upon, especially given the reasoning for it's existence ie the halving. Sure, it wouldn't tell you where the top or bottom was, and that was never the point of it either, but it would be able to tell you whether you're in a bear year or a bull year for example. My summary is, that I think we are still in a consolidation year - until this is no longer the case - and that means some sideways action at minimum, or otherwise a correction in order to build momentum for 2025. Similar to 2020 basically, minus the crash.


This is simply where we differ then; I don't believe price is likely to go up for another 18 months. It'd be great if it did, but given the year-long rally that has already occurred, that'd be a total of 2.5 year bull trend, which I don't find very realistic right now. Of course anything is possible, I'm not against speculating that this is possible either, but simply that I'm struggling to find the evidence of why this would happen.


Sure, this is partially when I think a low level of support would be more likely around $35K if a correction occurs, because already it's going to be there in a couple of months now, and I don't think price would drop in half much sooner than that if it were to do so. It's also likely to be above $40K by the end of the year, which ironically last year was my target for a post-halving consolidation price, so that remains unchanged for now.


In all honestly, I'm willing to come around to these ideas a lot more after the halving, once enough miners switch off and the network corrects. If price doesn't correct or consolidate alongside the correction of hash rate, then sure, 2-3x becomes an easy milestone, and the initial effects of the halving would be unlikely to negatively effect price, whether that be by decline or more "stalling" the price, like in 2020.

At the moment, I don't see any reason that there won't be the usual significant decline in hash rate, based on current metrics and historic data, and while I've never been someone to suggest shorting the price based on this correction (I know I won't be), I'm still aware that it leads to a correction/consolidation, as I've stated many times I'm pretty sure. So my opinion will likely change post-halving as well.


This is a fair argument we can both agree on. It never has in fact, even if it remains possible.

(Baring in mind until 2021, Bitcoin had never had a fake-out ATH either, until it did...)


I said $30K from $48K, I quite clearly said around $35K as a low level of support from $70K (simply as this is -50%). Spoiler alert, I'll likely say $40K as support from $80K  


I generally think 2024 will be a consolidation of price between the move from $15.5K and X, whereby X is based on the high of 2024, that is currently at $70K, but could be $80K, $100K, etc. So that means some sort of -50% from X, which from my perspective isn't possible to bet on, because there is the unknown variable of X. If price were to get rejected from here, and break below $50K, then sure, I'd be more willing to consider some bet about testing $35K before the end of the year. But until then, there isn't anything for me to bet on. Maybe you were under the impression I was short because I took profits, but simply I'm neutral by maintaining a hodl position and removing a mid-term trade that achieved the anticipated target (the fact it exceeded the target becomes irrelevant here, for what I consider to be obvious reasons).

Often the best bet to have is NO BET, which is more of less my current situation you could argue based on recent positioning, even though I'm approximately 60% long you could say, but this is based on a hodl position from 2018-2020 that I quite frankly don't consider as a position nor trade, so is somewhat irrelevant. Being in cash is a no bet scenario, not long nor short. But otherwise, if you're willing to consider a bet based on X (being an ATH of 2024) and X/2 being the price target, then I'd actually consider it. Obviously these aren't specific numbers right now, but by the end of 2024 they will be...


Yes please! If that's the interpretation I gave, then I'd like to avoid others making the mistake of interpreting my words like that again. Even if it involves a boring disclaimer for noobs.

Especially the idea of selling on the way down, that doesn't sound like me at all. Probably the idea that others would likely sell on the way down, sure, but not suggesting others do...

In summary: I didn't tell others to sell then, that was just your interpretation, which already seems wildly out of touch with the reality of what I said to be frank with you.


Again, this comes down to assumption. If I believe X is likely/possible, the correlation isn't always that I am weighted or positioned for X. I don't feel the need to regurgitate everyone else saying that Bitcoin will reach $100K before halving, or $200K this year. Mainly, because these are concepts/theories that I believe are obvious, whereas, maybe the idea of that not happening isn't so obvious... clearly.

Generally I find there is more valuable in information that is a minority opinion, and thus under-represented, rather than the dominant opinion, which is widely available.


I also did last year being an uber-bull and banging on about a recovery to $48K, so wouldn't be the first time!



This would again be where we differ in opinion, even though I do see an argument for that. Especially if 2025 was still a bull year and 2026 a bear year for example.


I said considerably, so probably something >$75K, although this would still be quite conservative if you look at $69K being a fake-out of $64K.

It's about eliminating all possibilities, in this case, a fake-out high, that sure has never happened after 2 years of an ATH, but obvious could....


Probably because I spend more time trading than I do hodling, as the latter literally involves no effort? It doesn't involve selling 5% here and buying back 5% there. It's more or less an emergency stash I've only ever had to dip into once in 2021 for about 1%. If I were to document my hodling, there wouldn't be much of a story, it would be a topic based on "I'm hodling" with a single update of "sold 1%" in 2021.


For me this is what I'll do with my trading account; basic maintenance. Making sure the weight of my investments are adequate, although involves a lot more shitcoin profit taking (usually 50% every 2x) and otherwise full blown liquidations towards the end of the bull year. This is exactly what a trading account is for, which is the opposite of HODL account - as the idea of the latter is DO NOTHING, HODL.


That's literally what some of the best traders say  


Feel free to call yourself an investor, even if you trade, I'm really not that bothered. But hodlers don't sell, clues in the name. At least a hodl position is never sold, trading/investor accounts are obviously different, as requires balancing with broader portfolios and the like. That's a completely different ball park in my opinion. Hence my hodl and trading accounts are completely separate. Probably as well if you're not willing to lose the value of your hodl, it also shouldn't be a hodl (because you won't hodl to 0 like you should), so naturally this should be balanced accordingly to only hodl what you feel comfortable with or able to.


This makes sense, and why I think managing an investor account completely separate from a HODL makes a lot of sense. The former you can actively manage, as you should with investments, the latter you literally hold on for dear life, nothing else. Maybe you end up retiring from it, but more realistically someone inherits it (because you held on for your entire life: you win). Just food for thought, you do you.

Your hodl could literally only be 1-5% of your entire stash, as is the going recommendation for a Bitcoin allocation to hodl. But not having a hodl allocation just seems very bizarre to me. I understand that the assumption is you will always have 1-5% left, even with actively managing an investment account, but even this risk isn't worth considering or even necessary in my opinion, for various reasons. For example ideally your hodl is in deep cold storage, not an "active" cold storage which you access, and therefore has every potential to becomes a risk. A piece of paper in a vault you own is ideal in my opinion.

I'm not even trying to convince you to have a hodl position, I just think it's strange you don't have one, and more relevantly, would be easy to implement by the sound of it.


You talking "playing swings" in the market, but you're not a trader? OK then...

Words can't explain how lucky we are to live in a century where Bitcoin was invented. Just a few years ago, a man (or probably a group) called Satoshi created a Bitcoin that was firstly discussed at sourceforge, then on Bitcointalk, in a small group and over time, just in 14 years, this coin become one of the major invention of the w eorld. Gold, that has been the major currency on our planet for many centuries, ranks first with $13,7T and Bitcoin, just a 14 years old currency ranks 9th, $1.25T (Numbers are higher on some websites).
I always think about Pizza transaction, what a pity I missed this phenomenal coin and phenomenal moments of history.

Explanation
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That is still pretty specific, and of course a correction from $250k to $120k is barely over 50%, so in that sense $75k would be right around 70%, which seems more realistic.. so gosh, who knows?  We could have several 20% to 50%-ish corrections between here and $250k, but who even says that $250k would be the top, since that is not even quite half of gold's market cap.. ...so maybe more realistic to be thinking some where between $250k and $600k as a reasonable top for this cycle.. even though I still find it difficult to assign very high values to upside scenarios, since I would prefer to error on the side of conservatism.. even i am tentatively thinking that the upside for this cycle could be $2 million or more, with about a 0.5% likelihood... so the other 99.5% of other possibilities would have to be contained below that.... meaning between $70,184 and $1,999,999.99.  Nice if it would end up being a 1 and 8 9s.

Such play out would be a gift from heaven

250 - 75/120ish

He’s not wrong. The drop from $250K down to $75K is going to be brutal.

Had to put the Bitcoin earring-tag project on hold. 
My 17 years old trusty, eeePC901 running Windows XP, died today. It's a 9inch minibook, because i have limited space and the "laptop" (more a knee-top... LOL) did fit perfectly in the space above the milling machine (a converted engraving machine, built like a tank).
The thing is beyond repair, i have to look for replacement. What pisses me off is that you can only buy tablets (only one USB port, but i need two) or totally cheap chinese no-name netbooks with small screen sizes up to 10 inch, otherwise i could run windows 10/11 on newer, fanless hardware, which is expected to live longer in the dusty environment.
I hope i can get some appropiate replacement asap.

Shit happens. 

Explanation
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I am not going to ask, but there are a lot of things in life that suck.  I had a BTC theft that was quite significant in size too, but luckily I was able to retain most of my then stash... so it did not go to a level of losing all of it.. and so I had a period in which I did not want to say anything about the matter, and I still tend to be a bit judicious in some of my revealing of any details - even though it is worth noting that for me, I had come to realize (and recalculate) that I did not need as many BTC as I had accumulated, so there was a path forward in order to reconsider matters, and also to fix a lot of the vulnerable areas.. and mine was largely related to a sims attack and it had several components that were kind of crazy in terms of how sophisticated the attack seemed to be and then even mistakes that I made too... and a few areas in which I just got lucky.. in terms of little quirks that caused the loss to be less than it could have had been.

Hopefully you either were able to retain some coins in order to have a base upon which to rebuild, even if it might not be as much.. or you are ready, willing and able to start to rebuild from scratch.. especially since you already know the value of having coinz.. yet I know that some folks could become disgruntled with some of these kinds of matters, especially if there is something like government involvement or some various kinds of injustices that were involved that might not make a whole hell of a lot of sense.

One time in around 2017 or 2018, I had a person file a small court claim against me that was truly trivial, stupid and the person was truly in the wrong - but feeling self-justified to file a claim for a good/service in the carrying out of a contract, yet in the end I ended up having to pay a judgement for that and it was a pretty small amount, but something that the person truly did not deserve... and so maybe that judgement plus other various complications in running a business and sometimes having various disputes with customers and also sometimes with government agencies wanting to sometimes get extra cuts that seem to be not warranted, and other kinds of problems of people trying to rob your business in various ways - including physical break-ins.. I decided that I was putting way too much time and efforts into something that was not worth the headache.. including that it was costing money and tying up capital.. ... so I guess I am just trying to point out various injustices.. that can sometimes contribute towards of web of considerations and reconsiderations in order to consider another possible road forward.. and yeah, hopefully, bitcoin remains part of your way forward and even resuming accumulation if that might be part of the current better way forward.


All of that about selling on the way up seems reasonable, but I don't know how you sell and then not end up with some kind of vulnerability in terms of how you are going to keep your money, unless you find someone who will give you physical cash or something similar for your BTC sales.


That is true.. USDT could be possible.. so then are you keeping it on exchanges or in some wallet.  You can store USDT on Aqua wallet, if you don't want to keep that value on exchanges.


That seems to be fighting with the hypothetical to go that extreme.  So for example, if someone is starting to feel like he can start shaving some off without putting much if any of a burden on his stash, then I don't see any problems with that.. even though you could be correct that getting over €150k is easy peasy... in other words, I don't see any reasons to let the perfect become the enemy of the good... in other words good enough to start selling, but surely the person who is doing the selling has to be able to live with the consequences that he might have had been able to get more if he had waited.. but I surely am not a waiting kind of guy since I think that we can set buy and/or sell orders in such way that the price is coming to us. and so we already planned what we were going to do once the price gets to the spot that we had already set.. which ends up being incrementalist and likely less gambling than if the numbers are set at such heights that may well not end up getting met.

@UnDerDoG81 can also play around with his numbers by plugging them into fillippone's Google spreadsheet that is based on a model that I had presented in this post.

I left Germany as soon as the Covid madness started. I purchased an apartment in Turkey in 2021 (85k euro) and brought all my stuff from Germany to there. So I dont pay rent for my apartment. The monthly costs of the apartment are 50 bucks for the whole complex (swimming pool, electricity for elevators, security salary etc.). I am still registered in Germany because of the tax free cash out option. Other than that I don’t have anything to do with Germany. So right now I’m living in Thailand for over a year. But heading back to Turkey soon. I’m spending about 1.5 to 2k a month here for rent and eat good food and coffee and stuff. I’m a happy guy if I can keep this lifestyle. Not interested in lambos and yachts and blow. In Turkey I live a real good life for 500-700€ a month due to not paying rent and having no other expenses besides food.

As for the other replies, I would definitely buy back Bitcoin if it drops and we see another bear market. I missed this chance in the last 3 cycles. Even though I am kind of a veteran in holding, the last 3 bear markets were rough and I don’t want to stay on the sideline and watch another one. Also as I said, 11 years in Bitcoin but I still don’t fully believe that Bitcoin is 100% here to stay. As soon as it gets too powerful, the cabals will find a way to get it under control. They are dominating this world for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. They won’t let a crypto coin take the power from them.

Oho! Look who's here! I'm buying the rumor right now...

Explanation
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The main idea is: sell when you must, but "must" could be different.
1% every 10k makes some sense, but these are "artificial" numbers, not corresponding to some "natural" progression.
I am in more of a "sell to pay for something" camp.
However, you are a bit strict with your approach (no banks, no stables, etc).
What's left: gold/silver (physical), residential real estate, including rental projects (worldwide), farm land or farms, timberland/timber.
Selling from bitcoin into equities-strange, but also within reason.

I saw the youtube video (sorry, no link) about a couple of german multimillionaires investing in timber as diversification.
I am amazed by the fact that $2k/mo is enough to live (in Germany, I assume), including traveling and rent.

I'm bullish as hell on Bitcoin and have been for over a decade.  A side effect of it's meteoric rise is that my asset allocation has gotten way out of whack.  I don't want to sell any BTC, but I do feel like there comes a point when it's irresponsible to have so much of your wealth in a single asset.  So I can understand the profit taking.  I also think that moving some capital into dividend paying equities can help you build up your income to be a regular purchaser of BTC instead of a holder. 

Explanation
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bc all depends on your holding

for example a little fiat to cover stuff ain't bad... imagine after 69k ATH... if I didn't sold any for no mather what reason, maybe buy property or travel, supporting live style or whatever... and even if not spending it then there is the possible opportunity of being back lower and still have some dirty FIAT.
But the main main thing is if I didn't sold any and my desire to buy something expensive is there like property or whatever then I just have some cash bc I surely wouldn't sell any there at the 20k ish price we got served for more as a year or so.
sometimes cash is needed for fast decisions and selling some at high prices is logical for such.

Just my thought, keep in mind the biggest amount stays in corn and the maybe opportunity to buy back low is just a thing.

Why not just keep it in Bitcoin unless you're spending it on a purchase or other payment?

You are lucky to sell at 13k because AFAIK the price after Dec 2017 ATH went down to 3.5k in Dec 2018.

I fully agree with you that you must have your own strategy with you that tells you whats best for you and your family.