Explanation
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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1120. (Read 26707826 times)
February 21, 2024, 09:01:17 PM
February 21, 2024, 08:03:34 PM
February 21, 2024, 07:39:17 PM
But I Think it would have been better for someone to invest higher when the value is low than waiting for the price to high before increasing the weekly DCA.
Frequently we do not have a choice, unless you are planning to gamble with your income. So for example if a guy makes between $700 and $2k per month with a most commonly received amount of around $1,200 per month, and perhaps expenses that are mostly around $1k per month, then he only has right around $200 extra per month for his discretionary/disposable income. Sure it could be possible that he has other savings/investments/assets that he could draw upon, and he could also use debt to invest, but that likely would not be advisable absent some different factual circumstances, and sure of course, guys can do whatever they want, but frequently, they should be attempting to work with what they got in terms of prudence and management rather than gambling with funds that they might not have.
Don't get me wrong, I am a pretty fucking BIG advocate of front loading your BTC investment to some extent, so let's say the same person has around $2,400 that he can take from other areas and allocate that $2,400 to bitcoin investing, and if he has that amount, he could divide 1/3 ($800) for each of the three categories of lump sum, DCA and buying on dips... Or he could just put it all into BTC right away, which might put him in an uncomfortable position if the BTC price does not end up going up from the time of his buying.. and so there frequently can be trade-offs and balancing that is necessary, even with attempts to front-load your BTC investment.
Since the thread in which I was posting/responding was locked, I am going to post my response here, in this lovely thread, and I will also invite Pi-network314159 to look at my response in this thread and decide whether he is going to respond further.
I agree that the general idea of applying DCA to BTC accumulation would be to attempt to both invest in bitcoin on a regular basis and to customize your style/approach to your own financial circumstances and/or budget.
So within any DCA approach, you can choose the extent to which you want to be aggressive or whimpy, and whether you are aggressive or whimpy, you should still be able to manage other aspects of your budgeting which would be making sure that your expenses are below your income and/or managing your emergency funds, reserve funds and/or float. The mere fact that you are aggressive does not mean that you would necessarily end up being sloppy in gterms of managing various aspects of your budget.
Secondly DCA is a matter of choice which means if I have a higher paying job I can be able to schedule how I can invest without it affecting me. For example somebody who receives $3000 per month can invest $200 per week and it wouldn't affect him while somebody who receives salary of $200 per month, might find it difficult to invest huge rather investing the least $10per week. that is to say that the investment should be don free mindedly and not a pressure or like a by force investing which will affect the person.
For sure, we should be assuming that individuals are completely responsible for whether and/or how they choose to employ their DCA strategy in terms of the frequency and/or amounts of their DCA contributions - including that they are responsible for their managing of automatic DCA services. So it should almost go without saying that if they overdo it or under do it, they are responsible for their chosen action and/or inaction and also if their system devolves into gambling or if they are so whimpy in their investment choices that it hardly ends up making any difference, also some of the guys who choose to invest $5 to $10 per week and then immediately remove their BTC from exchanges, they are also responsible if there are times in which their UTXOs are not economical and/or spendable.
Thirdly the Table is based on absumbtion which means you did it yourself and anyone else can set his target or programs himself on how to DCA.
For reference, here is the referred to table - and I also posted some supplemental tables in this post.
Date BTC_Price Weekly$Amt $Invst/Yr RunTotal$Invst BTC/Yr TotalBTC Total$Value
1/14/25 $59,999.40 $10.00 $520.00 $520.00 0.00900009 0.00900009 $540.00
1/14/26 $64,799.35 $12.00 $624.00 $1,144.00 0.01000010 0.01900019 $1,231.20
1/14/27 $69,983.30 $14.40 $748.80 $1,892.80 0.01111122 0.03011141 $2,107.30
1/15/28 $75,581.96 $17.28 $898.56 $2,791.36 0.01234580 0.04245721 $3,209.00
1/14/29 $81,628.52 $20.74 $1,078.27 $3,869.63 0.01371756 0.05617477 $4,585.46
1/14/30 $88,158.80 $24.88 $1,293.93 $5,163.56 0.01524173 0.07141650 $6,295.99
1/14/31 $95,211.51 $29.86 $1,552.71 $6,716.27 0.01693526 0.08835176 $8,412.10
1/15/32 $102,828.43 $35.83 $1,863.25 $8,579.52 0.01881695 0.10716871 $11,019.99
1/14/33 $111,054.70 $43.00 $2,235.90 $10,815.43 0.02090772 0.12807644 $14,223.49
1/14/34 $119,939.08 $51.60 $2,683.09 $13,498.51 0.02323081 0.15130724 $18,147.65
You can see that the first year or two don't really do anything, but the longer that you are in, the more that the value starts to compound upon itself, and even though over 10 years, we a bit more than a doubling in the price of BTC from $55k to $120k, we end up getting quite a bit of appreciation in our value since we would have had invested nearly $13.5k, yet the value of our holdings would be close to $18.2k.. and of course, we can play around with these kinds of numbers to try to figure out if there might be more aggressive or less aggressive investment scenarios but also we can make assessments if we consider the BTC price to go up a lot in value or a little bit in value, and we could have steady anticipated appreciation or maybe we might assume some years to be up and some to be down, yet we might ask ourselves for the purposes of projecting out future BTC price fluctuations does it help us to predict with a lot of granularity or might we be better served by keeping our projection more general and then just adjust it each year after it has played out?
In my understanding of this your table I see that the investment on DCA per week in the first year of the table was $10 per week compounding to $520 per year because there are 52 weeks per year with the value of btc at $59k per btc. 1/14/25 $59,999.40 $10.00 $520.00 $520.00 0.00900009 0.00900009 $540.00
1/14/26 $64,799.35 $12.00 $624.00 $1,144.00 0.01000010 0.01900019 $1,231.20
1/14/27 $69,983.30 $14.40 $748.80 $1,892.80 0.01111122 0.03011141 $2,107.30
1/15/28 $75,581.96 $17.28 $898.56 $2,791.36 0.01234580 0.04245721 $3,209.00
1/14/29 $81,628.52 $20.74 $1,078.27 $3,869.63 0.01371756 0.05617477 $4,585.46
1/14/30 $88,158.80 $24.88 $1,293.93 $5,163.56 0.01524173 0.07141650 $6,295.99
1/14/31 $95,211.51 $29.86 $1,552.71 $6,716.27 0.01693526 0.08835176 $8,412.10
1/15/32 $102,828.43 $35.83 $1,863.25 $8,579.52 0.01881695 0.10716871 $11,019.99
1/14/33 $111,054.70 $43.00 $2,235.90 $10,815.43 0.02090772 0.12807644 $14,223.49
1/14/34 $119,939.08 $51.60 $2,683.09 $13,498.51 0.02323081 0.15130724 $18,147.65
You can see that the first year or two don't really do anything, but the longer that you are in, the more that the value starts to compound upon itself, and even though over 10 years, we a bit more than a doubling in the price of BTC from $55k to $120k, we end up getting quite a bit of appreciation in our value since we would have had invested nearly $13.5k, yet the value of our holdings would be close to $18.2k.. and of course, we can play around with these kinds of numbers to try to figure out if there might be more aggressive or less aggressive investment scenarios but also we can make assessments if we consider the BTC price to go up a lot in value or a little bit in value, and we could have steady anticipated appreciation or maybe we might assume some years to be up and some to be down, yet we might ask ourselves for the purposes of projecting out future BTC price fluctuations does it help us to predict with a lot of granularity or might we be better served by keeping our projection more general and then just adjust it each year after it has played out?
So, yes, essentially you are correct Pi-network314159. The table projects investment amounts and it does not guarantee results, but could be used in any attempt to plan how your varying choices regarding how to invest into BTC might play out with the passage of time, and you can tweak the variables however you like. It is meant to be an empowering tool that is meant to help the person who chooses to use such a tool, and people can use it to their benefit or they can use it to their detriment. The tool does not become less valuable merely because I was the one that inputted the data and created the assumptions versus some other person could make better or worse assumptions, so the mere fact that such a tool is available does not assume that it will be used well or that my way of using it is not any good for me, whether I turn out to be correct in my assumptions or not, it could still be helpful to go through such exercises.. but it also might be a big waste of time for some folks who might be served better by using their skills and their thought process in other ways... Another thing is that it may or may not be helpful if the person using the tool is failing/refusing to attempt to match the knowledge and/or theory with putting some variation of the framework into action... When a person puts some of these ideas into practice the ideas may well end up informing the practice and the theory, so the whole process of putting the theory to action can help to better inform any person who is trying to improve himself and/or his circumstances through the use of these kinds of tools.
Which implies that the goal is to invest what you can afford according to your earning and also an investment which will not affect your accumulated btc. Because most people who invented on btc with aggression sell of and regretted later.
Whether someone ends up recking himself based on his having had been aggressive and/or overly aggressive may well have to do with degree rather than kind.. In other words, there are ways to be aggressive and still be responsible and not devolve into gambling and surely one of the ways to potentially be more aggressive might be with someone who creates an emergency fund, reserves and a float, and then once those funds are adequately established and built, then the person might choose to become more aggressive in his style of investing into bitcoin based on his having had established and built such funds.
Also btc is an investment that need focus and determination to achieve it because sometimes inpatient always affect us and makes us do unthinkable things.
For sure people get emotional about their BTC investment, but there are also ways that any of us should be able to set up our own investment style and practices into BTC so that we lessen the odds that we would become emotional about our BTC investment. Let's say that we fail refuse to create an emergency fund, reserves and/or a float, and then we thereafter decide to invest all our spare money into BTC, and maybe we have not even considered that our cash inflow does not always meet our expenses, so if we act in those kinds of ways, then we are more likely increasing the chances that something in our BTC approach might blow up on us.. because in the kind of situation that I just described, the person may well be preparing for the BTC price to go up, but he may well be insufficiently prepared for the BTC price to either go down or sideways. The mere fact that you might be investing into BTC aggressively does not necessarily mean that you fail/refuse to prepare for BTC prices to go in either price direction.
Meaning we should be courageous to make sure we take btc investment seriously because it is an investment that's is more profitable amongst other investment. and for someone to succeed in it you must set your mind at a long term investment not investing and hoping for results within the shortest period of time.
For sure, each of us should be striving to set up systems in which we do not get forced out of our BTC at a time that is anything other than our own complete choosing, and we should be capable of setting up systems to be able to increase our odds (or even assure) that we are not going to have to sell BTC at a time other than our own complete choosing.
Now everything is so easy for you to invest in Bitcoin while increasing the investment amount every month, the salary you get from work in real life can be allocated to several parts including investing $50 regularly every month.
People can now easily invest in Bitcoin with their limited income through DCA method.If a person accumulates $50 worth of bitcoins per month, his total bitcoins at the end of the year will be (12month×$50)$600.If the same person can prolong his investment for a long time i.e. up to 10 years then after ten years the total amount of invested bitcoins will be (10year×$600)6000 dollars. If he continues to increase his investment by another $20 each year, the amount of bitcoins he has invested will grow by a much larger amount.
Some forum members.. referring to LesterD also seem to not understand that it may well not be necessary to sell your BTC (or at least not large portions of your BTC, and that selling your BTC might potentially feel like "profits," but then there may end up being realizations that too much BTC was sold too soon.. .and there are a lot of these examples in bitcoin's history in regards to guys who sold way too many BTC too soon, even though they felt profits at the time of their sale, and they might have even felt profits for several years before they realize that they would have had been way better off to either to have had not sold their BTC or perhaps to have had bought back whatever BTC that they had sold.
Another problem that sometimes comes with selling too much BTC too soon, such selling can put guys into the wrong kind of mindset in regards to their BTC, and they may well be better off to ride BTC's likely inevitable UP and DOWN waves, rather than putting their lil selfies into the wrong kind of a mindset in regards to their BTC holdings..
February 21, 2024, 07:03:28 PM
February 21, 2024, 06:40:21 PM
Kinda glad we’ve taken a breather and the price has stopped pumping. It’s too early bros, the last thing we needed was an unsustainable pre-halving rally and a mini blow off top and dump. Slow and steady wins the race man, this shit is a marathon, not a sprint.
I do wonder who is selling now though, what kind of a moron do you have to be to sell the greatest financial asset known to man, two months before its supply is cut yet again? I guess you can’t help stupid people.
I’d like 50k to hold, if only for psychological reasons. Let’s meander around 50k and then start a slow rise into the halving. Spot ETFs will soon have bought all the OTC supply and that’s when the fun will really start. $250,000 in play for 2025.
HODL.
I do wonder who is selling now though, what kind of a moron do you have to be to sell the greatest financial asset known to man, two months before its supply is cut yet again? I guess you can’t help stupid people.
I’d like 50k to hold, if only for psychological reasons. Let’s meander around 50k and then start a slow rise into the halving. Spot ETFs will soon have bought all the OTC supply and that’s when the fun will really start. $250,000 in play for 2025.
HODL.
No idea who is selling or why, but then I also don't get why anyone would put any cent into any other cryptocurrency than BTC. It makes no sense other than only for a short term possible gain perspective. Some of the other currencies are even built as intentional unlimited supply jokes and people still go for them.
Just like that utter NFT BS. Unlimited supply of bearded colourful apes with a cigarette. WOWOWOW.
All these stupid coins are coming and going: Cardano, Tron, Ripple, Stellar Lumens, BNB, Solana with server issues, Bonk, Doggystyle coins etc. etc. Load of shite.
It says there are 2.2 million cryptos on Coin market cap. The last time I checked that number it said there were in the 4000s.
Just crazy carry on.
So because of that, sure, I guess some people are thinking they are doing well selling their BTC and probably spreading it into a thousand other cryptos or "projects" thinking they may rise just as much as BTC. But with those rises they are most likely going to miss the boat to buy back in?
Probably crypto scam artists trying to get other people's BTC is a huge reason for this nonsense and we are often flatlining for a while.
Whooptie Doo, another 10,000 coins added to CMC.
The truth is that BTC is original and although it may seem like I am saying nonsense, no other copy has been achieved and I doubt that it will achieve the stability that bitcoin has so far… and it is only enough to investigate other cryptocurrencies to realize that many of these have failed.
“But with these increases, it is most likely that they will miss the train to buy again?”
So yes, right at this moment I think you would be missing the train to buy again, as the saying goes... You can lose diamonds by collecting stones!
February 21, 2024, 06:24:14 PM
no i say 44,444 in the next 4 days
40/40 chance
That math makes no sense.
I will have to fold as that 40/40 chance is tough to beat
Gotta be a 20/20 chance if I’m risking any money on it. That’s what we call the perfect vision odds. You can already see what’s going to happen.
February 21, 2024, 06:01:18 PM
February 21, 2024, 05:37:52 PM
no i say 44,444 in the next 4 days
40/40 chance
That math makes no sense.
I will have to fold as that 40/40 chance is tough to beat
February 21, 2024, 05:08:18 PM
no i say 44,444 in the next 4 days
40/40 chance
That math makes no sense.
February 21, 2024, 05:03:25 PM
February 21, 2024, 04:50:50 PM
your bets guys... will 50k hold over the next 3 days?
I'd say we'll dip below
I'd say we'll dip below
Will 53k hold for the next 3 days?
I'd say it's iffy.
will we stay under 55,555 in the next 5 days.
I say it is a 50-50 chance
no i say 44,444 in the next 4 days
40/40 chance
February 21, 2024, 04:42:45 PM
your bets guys... will 50k hold over the next 3 days?
I'd say we'll dip below
I'd say we'll dip below
Will 53k hold for the next 3 days?
I'd say it's iffy.
will we stay under 55,555 in the next 5 days.
I say it is a 50-50 chance
The way I see it, we will either bounce off of 49.6k or 47.5k but we will be sub 50k probably for a short while.
It's ok, though. Bitcoin was pumping really hard so it needs a breather.
Poor lil fella's all tuckered out.
It needed to reload. The next leg up takes us to test the all time high. We’ll all be exhausted with calls from friends and family, not to mention seeing Bitcoin articles plastered all over the internet. It’s good we’re getting this chance to catch our breath before the fireworks start shooting. Take advantage and get your bags ready to go.
While I think during halving bitcoin will get to around $30k - $35k and then after halving, up up and away, probably within this year to before mid next year $100k
February 21, 2024, 04:01:18 PM
February 21, 2024, 03:43:18 PM
your bets guys... will 50k hold over the next 3 days?
I'd say we'll dip below
I'd say we'll dip below
Will 53k hold for the next 3 days?
I'd say it's iffy.
will we stay under 55,555 in the next 5 days.
I say it is a 50-50 chance
The way I see it, we will either bounce off of 49.6k or 47.5k but we will be sub 50k probably for a short while.
It's ok, though. Bitcoin was pumping really hard so it needs a breather.
Poor lil fella's all tuckered out.
It needed to reload. The next leg up takes us to test the all time high. We’ll all be exhausted with calls from friends and family, not to mention seeing Bitcoin articles plastered all over the internet. It’s good we’re getting this chance to catch our breath before the fireworks start shooting. Take advantage and get your bags ready to go.
February 21, 2024, 03:32:03 PM
your bets guys... will 50k hold over the next 3 days?
I'd say we'll dip below
I'd say we'll dip below
Will 53k hold for the next 3 days?
I'd say it's iffy.
will we stay under 55,555 in the next 5 days.
I say it is a 50-50 chance
The way I see it, we will either bounce off of 49.6k or 47.5k but we will be sub 50k probably for a short while.
It's ok, though. Bitcoin was pumping really hard so it needs a breather.
Poor lil fella's all tuckered out.
February 21, 2024, 03:03:32 PM
February 21, 2024, 02:51:25 PM
your bets guys... will 50k hold over the next 3 days?
I'd say we'll dip below
I'd say we'll dip below
Will 53k hold for the next 3 days?
I'd say it's iffy.
will we stay under 55,555 in the next 5 days.
I say it is a 50-50 chance
February 21, 2024, 02:15:39 PM
Remember we were below 40K just 4 weeks ago, lol.
I've long forgotten that 
Forgotten what now?
February 21, 2024, 02:01:17 PM
February 21, 2024, 01:37:45 PM
Remember we were below 40K just 4 weeks ago, lol.
I've long forgotten that Jump to: