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well...I made my 'mental bet' in a previous post...I think the price (hope I'm dead wrong) that due to mt. gox dumping 1.25 billion or so USD worth of bitcoin...supposedly May 2019.
Maybe that is where you are going wrong? Distributing is not the same as "dumping." You should know that.
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There are issues with both of your statements. MtGox has only 141,686 BTC left, so nowhere near 1.25 billion $ at current prices.
Distribution has no chance to happen in May 2019, because of the Coinlab claim, of about 16 billion $ (previously 75 million $).
MtGox Trustee Kobayashi may have to sell (dump) a lot of BTC, if the Court will decide in Coinlab's favor (claim was rejected by Kobayashi), but this is unlikely.
That is a fair characterization (and status update). I do recall reading the creditor minutes, or something like that (or maybe it was your comments in another thread) that Kobayashi seems to be a bit anxious in terms of wanting to dump a certain amount of additional BTC.. just to feel more insured against possible future BTC downside volatility.
So, I was not saying that dumping was out of the question, but just concerned that Searing's seeming expectation of a distribution in May 2019 (even if that is unlikely too, as you stated), would not necessarily result in a BTC "dumping" as he had implied as a kind of current uncertainty that is hanging over bitcoin and causing it to price-move sideways.
