Regarding scenarios for adjusting your position or taking some kind of action? I wonder what those would be. A new bottom or something close to $3,122 might change your plan, and then I suppose if BTC prices go up too quickly, you might want to shave a bit of BTC off, too, I would think.
I might consider taking a leveraged long in 2021. But frankly at this stage I am done with trading for the time being.*. There is no chance of me selling and any further buys will require new money rather than recycled money, so would only dribble in at best.
*I reserve the right to change my mind at a later date.
It is almost that you can take a break from this thread too.
Recall in the $8k arena and March/april 2018 time frame you said something very similar, but I suppose that a lot of us had already assumed that the February 2018 bottom of $6k was in, until it was not. This time is different? perhaps? I suppose if the bottom is really in, and BTC prices don't really go below $3,500 in the coming months, then you are going to be able to rest assured, but I suspect if BTC prices go blow $3,500 you are going to start to worry, and maybe you won't worry too much (since you already might be prepared for that), unless BTC prices go below $3,300, then it is going to begin to appear much more likely that prior support at $3,122 is going to be challenged again, and might be breached. We will see. We will see.
I don’t recall saying something like this in March 2018 but you may be right and I can’t be bothered going and looking so let’s just assume you are right
It doesn’t make any difference to me if the price goes as low as $3,122. We have already been there once. It is far more important to me to spend all my remaining fiat profits under $4k. All I care is that it starts with a $3,xxx. A rule in trading is never hyper optimize - don’t chase the first 10% of profit in your entry and don’t chase the last 10% of profit on exit. You will never exactly buy the bottom and never exactly sell the top. If you try to do that (and I have tried trust me) you will just get chopped up with stops. Sometimes you will make the perfect trade but that doesn’t make up for all the losses you take getting stopped out.
It is far more relaxing to take a long term view and say “here is close enough, I will get on here”. We are currently 80% down from ATH so this is close enough for an entry.
Yes there is a chance I am wrong and have gone too early. Maybe years too early according to the “cycle lengthening gurus”. I don’t believe their analysis but if they are right and I have badly misjudged then maybe as you suggest I will just walk away for awhile. I got caught at $700 in 2014 and walked away for two years. I know how to hold and can do it again.
On the other hand if I am right then I have been buying the bottom for the past month and that is a good thing.
That's a fair enough approach, and I am not claiming to attempt to time the bottom either, but I always try to keep some reserves for buying - including my cashflow that would be used for buying too.
So let's say for example, I have $1,000 per month coming in and maybe $900 goes towards all of my expenses, including having a bit of a reserve for emergencies and extra entertainment costs. I still have $100 left, and where am I going to put that extra $100 per month? For me it goes into my BTC fund, and that money will be used for buying BTC on dips, if they happen... and from time to time, I can restructure at what price points I have my buy orders.
For you, where does that extra $100 per month go? Does it just build up and you hold it in dollars? And it is kind of a non-working fund that keeps growing? or does it go into some other kind of non-btc investment? Over a year, that $100 per month can start to add up, and what you going to do with it? Consumption goods?
