Question to TA experts: how likely would be a situation when we try to get to ATH, then fail (around, say, 15-18K) and revert to at least a short term, but significant bear?
Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)?
I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10%
In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500.
The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K.
The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken.
Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)?
I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10%
In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500.
The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K.
The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken.
I would have to say 86.89% unlikely, 10.11% possible; but not likely and 3% likely. I would further add that I think after this cycle ends there is a good chance the next cycle will be much shorter as in the 2013-2014 run up/dip/run up.
W
#stronghands'19
Does the intercept of the exponent and logarithmic regression curves represents the likely future peak (at around 80K)?
