The last time the market was more indecisive was at the start of 2018. Zones of minimal Long + Short positioning have historically coincided with bearish price action during bear markets (opposite is true for bull markets). When undecided, "the trend is your friend" prevails.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1102053206308225024?s=21His ideas in that tweet (and some of the tweets in the responsive tweets) appear to be all garbled up.
Of course, he is talking about times of reversals while also referring to the "trend is your friend," so in early 2018, we likely had no idea about whether that point in BTC's price was a reversal or not, because sticking with the "trend is your friend" would have meant more UP from there.. and in my view that issue about the trend is your friend and whether the trend had reversed was NOT really resolved until mid-November 2018 (and at that point in mid-November, there was a bit of a decisiveness about the matter regarding what the current trend was (and still seems to be)).... Call me conservative.
Currently, if we happen to be a reversal, we may not know for several months. I don't think that we can call it, until such new trend (of UP) is well upon its way, and for me, my number for trend reversal still is in the supra $6k territory.
I just don't trust calling these kinds of matters too early, and I am not going to bet on them either. That is part of the reason why I did not make any major sales of BTC between $10k and $19,666 on the way up, and certainly, I was not selling on the way down, either. I was buying starting from about $19k all the way down to $3,122.
Yes, yes... I hope we are in a reversal.. but the trend is your friend still says that the odds are against it, until we reach $6k-ish.. at least in my rough assessment of what is a sufficient of enough barrier between the current low (which is now $3,122) and a necessary BTC price to feel some degree of comfort that a retest of the bottom support becomes less than 50% rather than our current greater than 50% status.
