[edited out]
How about 30 days under $40K for 0.01 BTC?
(taking JJG advice here) Even though you are offering the bet to the dude.. I would take some variation of the other side of that bet just for funzies, if the amount was for 0.001 BTC rather than 0.01 BTC... even though I do consider it to be around a 50/50 bet.. and I am also thinking that there have already been 5 days in 2024 under $40k, so that ONLY would leave 25 more days of the BTC price touching under $40k in order for you to win the bet (if we were to be agreeable to that rather than 30 more days under $40k would be another fairly reasonable variation of such a bet).
That is an interesting and even fair counter-proposal for such a bet, and it does bring out the idea of "are you bearish?" or "are you bullish?" perspective and even to add a bit of a need persistency below $40k rather than a kind of transitory touching upon sub $40k.
That's the thing, long-term I'm still bullish until $20K. I simply think price needs to cool off after a 12 month rally (or 3 month rally, if we are to consider the consolidation around $25K for 6 months, which we obviously should). Therefore, based on usual mid-cycle corrections, ~$30K seems very reasonable, roughly -35-40% back to the 200 WMA area (like has happened in both past cycles, regardless of reasons why/when this happened).
Well, we might also have to account for the 200-week moving average currently being around $30,500 and currently it is going up nearly $30 per day, and yeah you don't seem to be including the 200WMA as any kind of limit to the correction, but largely suggesting that getting in that neighborhood, whether above or below the 200WMA may not be very material in terms of figuring how how low of a dip would be reasonable.
I also think a dip will very short lived, and that after the halving price will stabilise around ~$35-40K very quickly/easily, between 0.382 & 0.5 fib levels from ATH to recent low, again similar to previous cycles.
I don't know how great is your "similar to previous cycles" thesis. Sure similar things do sometimes happen and certain causes can be somewhat unexpected, but maybe as somewhat of a chartalist you might not be very concerned about cause because there will frequently come some kind of reason even if not exactly known at this particular moment... I am not really convinced, including that I am not really convinced that getting below $35k has very much greater than 50/50 odds if maybe I might conceded that the odds might be greater than 50% just to acknowledge that shit happens, but at the same time, how would anyone be waging much about going to those kinds of levels if the odds are not really much greater than 50%, even though at this time, you clearly seem to consider the odds of going below $35k to be greater than 50%.
In other words, you seem to have had been getting so excited about further downity that might not happen, when we already got 21.5% downity (so far).. and sure such further downity might happen, but then again it might not.. but I do consider going below $38,500 to be greater than 50%, but I am still thinking that you are not getting much more than 50% at best from any expectations of below $35k.
The only difference I see this time around is that the blow-off top arrived 6 months later than usual, but I don't think that nullifies a correction, only speeds it up, or makes it less severe. Some people see $25K summer price as the "cycle top" prior to a correction, but with pull-backs of only -20%, I only see consolidation working our way through long-term resistance, not a top at all, but textbook continuation.
Your not saying anything illogical, yet I am having difficulties considering the various long term (16 month) staying near at or below the 200-week moving average (between June 2022 and October 2023) to already be gifts from god (for the bears, the BTC naysayers, the hopers for lower BTC prices) in terms of considerable amounts of ongoing BTC price suppression (even if it was for more or less legitimate reasons of flushing out various scams and related contagion).
The main issue I have is that most people see a return to $30K as bearish, whereas it'd quite likely be the most bullish thing to happen to price in the next few months, in order to cool off and build more momentum for a stronger rally.
Fair enough.. but I still do not consider the bounce from $27k to $49k to have had been overly exuberant, especially given the context including how long we had been below the 200-week moving average, and we could even look at similar periods in late 2015 and the BTC price pretty much doubled in a month to $500 and then it spent 6 months consolidating around $420 until it finally broke back above $500 in May and never really returned below $500.. so there is no need to go back there, especially if the price had been repressed for so long like it had been in 2015... similar today, even though of course some of the dynamics are a wee bit different, but likely not enough to make a difference to show the point that a further correction back down to (or even within 20% of) the 200-week moving average is not necessary... for UPpity to continue with enthusiasm and gusto.
Obviously in the short-term -35% is bearish, sure, but is also far from unusual, even in full-blown post-halving bull markets.
I am not going to completely write off a possibility of a 35%plus correction from here, but I also would not give it greater than 50/50 odds so why would anyone bet on something that is not even much greater than 50/50 odds. I do agree that greater than 35% correction will likely come in this cycle at a variety of points along the way.. and the halvening is hardly significant in terms of when such corrections might happen.
Oh by the way, think about the 3.5x price run from April to June 2019.. maybe you are going to agree that we had around 80% price run from October until January.. that still is not anything close to requiring a 35% correction right now.
Right now, it seems to me that we are on solid enough grounds that we could get a run to $80k or even $100k and then thereafter experience a 35% or more price correction..... in other words making it through noman's land which is $55k to $82k, and at the same time, there are a lot of variations of what could happen and what could be sustainable pump or dump, so I am not even going to list some more possibilities that seem reasonably possible at this moment..
Either that, or consolidation between $40K and $50K for next 6 months would also be very bullish, I just see if as much less likely even if entirely possible.
Shoot up to $69k and then come back and consolidate $40k to $50k for 6 months. I could see that. but kind of agree that consolidating right here for 6 months does not seem like the kind of thing that dee cornz does... we would have to have down before up (as you are proposing) or up before down which is what I would suggest to have at least equal chances as compared to what you are suggesting to have greater odds, which I have my doubts, but I am not going to be shocked if your scenario ends up playing out and actually gives a bunch of undeserving folks another opportunity to buy.. and actually, the more painful route would likely be up before down... which the more I type the more I think that up before down has slightly higher odds, but it does not really seem bettable... .. or rephrase, which one first $51k or $33k? That might be bettable, just for funzies..
My main issue with $35K is that -30% doesn't go deep enough for a mid-cycle correction, it's usually 35-50%.
Ramble over.
You could be right, but
don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Lock in your buy backs before it is too late!!!!!!!! (hahahahhaha I had to get that little dig in there)Ramble over.
I liked the "ramble" - but was it, really?
Apart from the bet (0.01 is still a tad too much IMHO - didn't JJG suggest 0.001? Not sure, not important.) Oops ahem I digress, apart from the bet - the analysis seems lucid to me.
It's not like we
need down before up, but it happened so many times already. This time is different, though. Oh, just like last time, I see. And the time before that. Rhymes without repetition? Whatever.
Your spirits seem much better this time around d_eddie.
Wasn't it the pre-2021 price rise in which you seemed like you were about to jump off of a cliff or to completely do ur lil selfie in... and sure maybe the fact that you did not end up mindrusting ended up lifting up your spirits? hahahahaha.
I am glad that you are taking it so well this time around. You seemed to stop trading too.. which maybe was causing more stress than it was paying off.
Pee-pare for up, pee-pare for down. If she goes to 200k overnight, I won't have time to complain (buying a couple lambos and securing a coop of hookers isn't work that does itself, folks!
You are correct.
During those few unexpected days (weeks or whatever) that the price ends up pumpening, there is no time to get back in. You are either in or you are not, and we seem to have quite a few of those rare days that you "should have had been in" rather than fucking around with trying to trade the most pristine asset that man has ever witnessed.. who would want to be on the wrong end of that trade. Not this here cat.
And don't get me started with the blow, it's gotten crazy with the supply chain!). That's all good for UPpity - but with this dubble pee-pare mindset, I am keeping some dry powder to scoop up loose corn when (if!) it gets moar cheeper. Call me stupid.
I think that many of us have learned to be stupid in terms of making sure that we have some cash, just in case, and there are ways to still have decent amounts of cash, but still having plenty of cornz too so that we are not really bothered if the price goes up and if they price goes down we have some abilities to make lemonaide out of a less than preferred situation.
As I mentioned earlier. I have buy orders going to below $20k, yet I doubt that the odds are much greater than 50/50 that the BTC price will go below $35k even a spike down to the 200-week moving average. but seems like 40% odds at best of getting within 10% of the 200-week moving average to me... surely I woudl not want any of those scenarios to happen, and they would not be bearish, but I just hate for any of the undeserved to get any more corn at cheaper prices.. maybe within the don't wake me up zone, I am not as much bothered, but I would also prefer not to revisit $38,500.. it just does not seem necessary, and it would likely cause more pain and suffering on the undeserved fuck twats (do I need to name them?) to go up to $51k from here rather than down to $33k or whatever from here.
Ramble over.
Apart from the bet (0.01 is still a tad too much IMHO - didn't JJG suggest 0.001? Not sure, not important.) Oops ahem I digress, apart from the bet - the analysis seems lucid to me.
Yes s/he did, and it is important, but for me 0.001 BTC could easily end up being a transaction fee when it comes down to it so not worth the hassle
I don't really like small transactions, but we should be able to bet and to figure out some potential creativity. Lightning network is possible too...and you remind me of a small payout that I received last year.. that I might need to move while fees are low..and that one is .002 BTC.
I have more than 0.001 BTC in bounty funds that I'm not really fussed about losing. I'm aware it's "real money", but doesn't really feel earnt when it's mainly just me posting analysis in order to try and gauge some market sentiment (ie, it's self-serving). Having a bet on would also make me more active on here, which I've been meaning to be for some months now, especially leading into the halving.
Plus, it'd be like fun I imagine.
There could be ways to make bets fun and to really identify the disagreement.. but at the same time, yeah the transaction fees are a bit of a pain.. and it is not just the transaction fee at the time, but it is trying to figure out ways to future proof it, somewhat... when possible.
