Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1168. (Read 26611082 times)

I BUY   I BUY   I BUY. As Grayscale keeps causing dips, I'm buying till I buy at the depth 😅 or I'm out of cash 💸 🤷‍♂️🙋‍♂️

This feel yummy 😋

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ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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All credit to ChartBuddy

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 🇺🇸 U.S. files notice to sell $130 million worth of #Bitcoin    seized from Silk Road agent
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While the $150k cap may end in November 2024 rather than December, it's more likely to be closer to $320k and $480k by 2025.




I don't think it's likely to happen in the next 2-3 years but if the market changes a lot then that's a different story, otherwise going over $640k is pretty much impossible.

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Another thing to make matters even more clear is that many of us long term Bitcoiners will maybe complain a bit because we are selling 0.5% of or stash or maybe sometimes 1-2% at most for some expenses that we thought that we could put off, but were not able to put off.  So we are usually not even tending to talk about selling large amounts of our BTC holdings but still we are kind of complaining about it.

Maybe I can give one of my own examples.  In late 2018 and even into early 2018, I had constructed plans to do some construction over 2018, and so I had pretty much held in reserves around 65% to 75% of the costs of various construction that was taking place in mid-to-late 2018, even some of the construction was going slow, and so I had anticipated those bills to start to come due in February and March of 2019, but instead a large chunk of them came due in November and December 2018, so I felt kind of fucked to be considering having to pay those bills and not really being able to put them off until I thought that they would be due.  So I ended up selling around 4% of my BTC stash during some pretty low points of the market, it was not the absolute bottom, but I think that it might have been around $4k-ish.. and between December 2018 and April 2019 I was able to buy back about 1/2 of the amount that I sold..and so there was some regret there in terms of how I planned it and how I carried it out.. but I did not sell at the absolute bottom of that correction (which was $3,124), and probably I was able to get back some  more of those BTC over the next ups and downs of the BTC prices, since the BTC prices had gone up to $13,880 and then corrected back down into the $6ks in late 2019 and then we can recall the prices went above $10k but then corrected back down to $3,850, so all of those were played well in my system of accumulating BTC so my BTC stack largely built during that time, but still I can feel that my sale of 4% and my ability to ONLY recover half of that was still some place in which I ended up with less BTC to play with.

Another thing is that if I am the one who is claiming to have had average BTC costs of around $1k per BTC, so there are some regrets to be selling around 4x in profits rather than other opportunities to sell at much higher amounts such as even 10x in profits in order to have had the potential of not having to sell as many and to have been able to have chances to buy back at the times that I was selling or at least to HODL through it rather than to sell at lower than preferred BTC prices.


much ado about nuttin.


In udder wurdz.. seems like a lot of noise.. you have a target price of $33,333 that may or may not get hit, and yeah you have some targets between there, as well, but what is the good to either get emotional about it or to wage upon it happening.. even if the ONLY meaningful thing that you are waging is that you have some buy orders outstanding that may or may not end up getting filled.

When I posted earlier about some of the adjustments that I made to my buy and my sell orders, I forgot to mention that I largely did not change the increments that i had set from late 2020 and early 2021, but I think that our various ups and downs (mostly downs) since 2021 did cause some needs for me to rethink the ways that I had those set.. so largely they are currently with about $1,500 increments until we get to pretty well into no man's land (about $58k when the switch to $2,000 increments until $72k they switch to $3k increments and then $3,500 increments from $100k to $120k and $5k increments up until $150k.

Since some of us had been talking about what to do after $150k (presuming that it could end up happening, and I had not really thought about it very much), but I am thinking that maybe I will increase my sell amounts by 20% to 30% or so in terms of bitcoin and then the increments would be $7,500 until $200k  and then probably $10k between $200k and $300k, but still I am not as concrete as setting those supra $150k sell orders, and I am thinking that we would need to get through noman's land first and maybe even get into supra $100k .. but things could end up moving fast if we get to supra $100k, so it might be better to have the sell orders set up if it looks like $100k might get broken.. so yeah, a lot of ifs.. so maybe we are still not close to getting to those kinds of break throughs.. and I might become guilty of counting my chickens before they hatch.. but still giving some thoughts to those kinds matters shouldn't hurt to have a kind of outline of a plan so that it might be easier to put in place.. and maybe I should at least on paper (besides this post) write it out in order that I will know what I had already tentatively decided)... it might make more sense to actually see it on paper, too (referring to digital paper rather than actual physical sheets)...

So then if we get through $150k and then $200k and then $300k, then probably it would be good to figure out $300k to $600k.. we alreadyknow that sometimes in a cycle there can be a doubling and then a doubling and another doubling.. but it might not happen all at once, but if we look back between late 2015 and late 2017, we had 6 doublings over 2 years, but then maybe we had something like 5 doublings over 1 year .. or maybe we had 4 doublings over about 4 months

250 9/2015
500 11/2015 & 5/2016  & 8/2016
1000  12/2016
2000  3/2017
4000  9/2017
8000  10/2017
16000  11/2017

2500  9/2017
5000  10/2017
10000  11/2017
20,000 12/2017

I am not certain that doublings are going to happen in a matter of a few months, even though there is nothing really discounting from the possibility of several doublings being able to happen in a relatively short period of time.. but then what kinds of numbers do we start with in order to measure?

not quite this but something close

$15k
$30k
$60k
$120k
$240k
$480k

or do you prefer to contemplate something like

$20k
$40k
$80k
$160k
$320k
$640k

Any of those are possible, but we still might not know the timeline or if they might be within reasonable contemplations for this cycle. .and do you have plans for such?  or might you blow your whole wadd (if any?) prior to $150k?

I can tell you for myself, even if I pick up my sell orders, I still will likely be "under" doing it... and will I have regrets when the ultimate BIG correction comes?  I am not sure because I am not sure about if a BIG correction will come and if it will even matter very much to me.

probably enough fantasizing for now.. and I can neither confirm nor deny how great the odds might be for some of the possible upside scenarios nor figure out for anyone else the extent to which they feel that they are ready, willing and/able to prepare for those kinds of situations and not even be disappointed if they don't end up playing out and maybe we don't end up getting much if any above $120k. .and sure could even be worse than that, but I hate to devolve into too many negative Nancisms.. I will let the beartards, the bitcoin naysayers, the shitcoin pumpers, the low coiners and nocoiners and the fence sitters to engage in those even more negative scenario ponderings.

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Well so far the dude was proven wrong and I am still correct.

However you can get that amount of money.

I mean in the past 4 years, you could have had gotten a wee bit over a whole bitcoin with $100 per week.. and I am wondering if 4x to 6x is actually going to get a whole bitcoin in the next 4 years, and that would be $400 to $600 per week.

It is surely a pretty good income to be able to put $400 to $600 per week into bitcoin or any other investment, yet I am not even going to proclaim that a guy needs to get a whole bitcoin, especially if he is just starting out. If he is just starting out, he just needs to get started, and before 2020, I would frequently suggest $10 per week for newbies to get started, and since 2020, I have been recommending $100 per week, even though I know that it is quite difficult for a lot of non-westerners to do $100 per week.  Sometimes it might be easier for westerners to be able to put aside that amount, but even westerners might be stuck in situations in which they have too much debt and they don't have reliable income... so I am not going to presume it is easy, and I also am not going to presume that anyone should start out by aspiring to a whole coin within 4 years, unless they might already be starting out with some kind of an investment portfolio that they could diversify (reallocate) into bitcoin or if they just happen to have a lot of disposable/discretionary income such as in the $400 to $600 per week arena.


Grayscale mostly do not have any control over the amount of bitcoin that are sold.  They sell in regards to the amount of GBTC shares that are sold, and sure some of those GBTC shares could have been their own shares, but I would not presume that they are selling their own shares.  I would presume that most of the sales are coming from clients selling GBTC shares, and then so then Grayscale has to sell the corresponding number of bitcoin in order to keep their accounts balanced (or backed by the correct amount of BTC).  


Well a further dip may or may not happen, so I am not sure what the point is to wait too much for any further dip when we already got around 21.5% dip. but hey you never know maybe there will be more dip, but I would think anyone waiting for a dip would have already bought some at these price points, even if it might surely dip further, but then again, it might not.

Maybe part of the matter depends on how many BTC that you already have versus how much fiat you have in reserves, so if you had just started buying BTC and you have a disposable income of around $100 per week, and you have $3k in savings and another $3k for your emergency fund (presuming $1k per month in expenses), then maybe you would buy $1k right away.. but if you had been buying $100 per week for the past 18 months, if we go by your forum registration date, then you have already bought around $7,600 worth of BTC, so you have a bit more cushion if you had already been buying... .. but if you had ONLY bought a few hundred worth, then maybe waiting is not a good idea... waiting kind of depends on circumstances, including if you are already largely prepared for UP or not.

Even if you had been buying $100 per week for the last 4 years, as we discussed in this thread earlier, some guys might consider 1 BTC is not enough, so they are not going to be waiting around for any dips.. they have been buying for the past 4 years and they had plenty of dips and even plenty of buys that were higher than current prices, so they likely are just continuing to buy.. but yeah, none of us can really speak for anyone else in terms of when they can change their strategies away from ongoing buying and into some kind of waiting for a further dip approach to their BTC accumulation..


Don't get into those numerology thingies again Philip, you have not tended to be very good at it.

 

Or an envious shitcoiner.

Everyone prepare for the bull 🥳🥳🥳

But with Grayscale dumping, we are expecting a pre halving dip event.

Can't wait to buy the DIP AND HODL 😋

Of course, if we were to measure from the 2021 top, then our current correction point would be right around 44% from $69k to $38,505.. but that likely is not what was being shown in that earlier chart which was a conjectured dip from the $48,048 price arena... which again would not be completely impossible, but I still would not give it greater than 50/50 odds, but hey what do I know.. I am not really that much into trying to figure out some of the short term ups and downs, especially since there are strategies that any of us can do in order to make sure that we are prepared for either price direction, depending on our own personal circumstances, which would include how many BTC we have already stacked in comparison to our other assets, our cashflow and other personal circumstances.


When is such supposed MegaCrash going to happen?

Sounds like either wishful thinking or probably a low coiner or no coiner or someone who sold way too many coins too soon.

The current chart looks like the below.. which does not show any kind of crash yet.. and for sure not a mega crash.. it even looks like the first scenario could be closer to playing out rather than the second scenario.:


https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

It would dangerous to overly bet on DOWNity, especially in times like these.. .if you know what I am talking about.