So I just woke up, and upon seeing what has transpired, I just wanted to say “Hey bitcoin, fuck you!”
I’m so sick and tired of waiting for the price to claw its way up a little for days, then it’s all gone in minutes.
Come on bro, I’ve seen your posts here. You’re better than this, I know you are. Strap yourself in, I know it’s a long wait but we will get there in the end.
North of $50,000 6-12 months after the halvening. Quote me on it, you owe me a beer when we get there
You are starting to sound a bit like Adam with his $32k in 1-2 years that he was repeating in 2015, 2016 and into 2017 - except you are a bit more specifically timing yours for 6 months after the halvening, and it is appearing that $50k plus would be a bit more conservative for late 2020 or early 2021 than $32k would have been while Adam was predicting $32k for 2017-ish (but his time line seemed to keep changing, too).
To me, the odds of your steadfast prediction of $50k plus happening within the timeline that you state seem pretty decent, which justifies putting a decent amount of stake into BTC (especially for those who are currently no coiners).
I feel that I have always had a sufficient amount of coins into BTC for such a bull run (probably since late 2014), even though I have continued to stack BTC since after late 2014.
Let's say, for example, that some no coiner has $100k in total quasi-liquid investments, and I include 401k value in that calculation. 1% would be $1k into BTC, but $10k seems to be a bit of a stronger stake.. put up to 10% without having to leverage.
I did something like that in 2014 with what ended up being more than 10% of my total quasi-liquid value, so the bull run in 2017 caused my BTC investments to become more valuable than all of my other investments, including my 401k, and even with the large price drop of BTC, the value of my BTC still is larger than all of the other quasi-liquid investments that I have.
We know that history does not exactly repeat itself with any kind of exact similar performance, but having decent odds of another nearly 14x increase in value ($50,000 / $3,600 = 13.89) seems like a good investment with good odds. Do your own research and your milage may vary.
I remember Adam’s 32k predictions well, we will see his predictions come true but maybe not as soon as he wished/hoped.
What I do know is that yourself & I have HODLED through much, much harsher times than we’re currently witnessing. I’m still at over 15 times my total investment into bitcoin. I need to recalculate that though as I’ve been buying regularly since we went sub $6,000.
Jay, I think all of us here who are possibly now becoming seen as you said earlier ‘the latest bitcoin OG’s’ need to use this period of sideways price movement as a real, real opportunity to make sure we buy as much as we can before the next bull run.
The next bull run will make a massive fucking change to a lot of our lives. I’d imagine many of us will become millionaires then.
Here’s to the future
For some reason, I am spouting out a quite a bit more bullishness this time around, and I am not sure about what that means, exactly.
I continue to believe that each of us has to prepare for both price directions and the negative scenarios. So, I am not sure about how much doubling down here or going in deep here would be prudent because there continues to be this ongoing potential for other cryptos to drag down BTC (the froth and all).
Certainly, each of us should be striving to prepare for both price directions, so I don't have any problem with guys and gal who might chose to engage in a bit of "overinvesting" at these price points, but there is also prudence in having some dry powder available, too.
Personally, I did a decent amount of accumulating of BTC in the last run down to $3,140, but I also did not buy as much as I would like too, because I tend to plan out my finances for 8 months or more into the future, so I had to slow down on some of my BTC purchasing and even trying to figure out at which price points I will be buying again. Probably in the coming weeks I am going to reset my price points, and even figure out something down to lower price points, even though we might not go there.
A similar thing was true with me during a large part of 2015. My BTC stash had grown relatively slowly during that whole period and a decent amount of my accumulation had taken place in 2014 (at then higher prices).
Since 2015, Bitcoin has gone from 6 years old to 10 years old, so there is some Lindy effect value in that, too. Nothing is really broken in bitcoin, and in a lot of ways with segwit, lightning and really the decent assessment of failure of the various forks (such as bcash) and alt coin attack vectors (such as ethereum and its various scam appendages), so with all of those kinds of positive fundamentals - including that bitcoin has not broken with any of its sound money aspects, I retain a kind of pent-up bullishness regarding the supra $50k scenario that you continue to mention. At the same time, there remains a possible 1 year or more in which BTC could stagnate, and of course, there could be some attempt to hold off the bullrun or any sign of a bullrun for as long as possible, including going past the 2 year time line - yet as your presumption seems to suggest, there are likely going to be some hard incentives that are going to cause even the most powerful of bears an inability to keep BTC prices down, even if they throw vast amounts of fiat at it with their printing machines (and perhaps stable coins). Anyhow, I like to be prepared for scenarios in either direction.. but understand that there remains a decent built in soundness of money and incentive structures in BTC that are going to be tough for the powers that be to keep down in the coming years which remains bullish for us HODLers and accumulators.
