Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 12152. (Read 26609512 times)

 Moar discrete

Well, another night I go to sleep knowing that I will wake up to a lower bitcoin price.

We thought this was a quick band aid rip off.

Instead it's a slow bleed draining the life from us.

Miners can't keep mining on these rekt prices.

Excellent post, please give him some merit I have been out of merits for months. This post is going to be a very helpful guide during a bull run.

I'd like to add that with all the nocoiners asking you for advice and talking about it more and more. During the last bull run I had the feeling bitcoin adoption suddenly had skyrocketed. Meaning that my view of adoption was completely delusional because of the sudden increase of price. Which resulted in me barely selling any coin and not having extra fiat to buy back during the bear market. The price attracts a lot of people but that's not adoption, adoption is the people who are leftover after the attraction of the price. This is how I see it.

nice writeup

Logic would dictate that a significant amount of mining equipment is no longer profitable to run.

What's the deal with the sharp drop in hashrate?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

I have decided to write about what have been my errors during the past bull run and subsequent downtrend till now.

First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits. It doesn't need to be huge and it certainly would vary depending the individual circumstances but take some. It will make you feel better during the bear trend. It may be as low as 5%, 10%.... maybe a bigger amount if you plan to "gamble" on rebuying later in the downtrend.

How do you know when the time has come? Well, hitting a perfect top is just a matter of luck but, hitting somewhere NEAR the top is much more easy:

- You start receiving calls from nocoiners that are now suddenly interested in investing. They usually ask you for advice on what coins are a good buy... because Bitcoin is already too expensive you know....

- Exchanges can't cope with the demand. The trading engines not only lag extremely, but the verification queue for new users are weeks or even months long. Some even stop accepting new users.

- You start to feel that the rise has reached completely ridiculous levels and it should implode.... But since you already thought that a few thousands ago... why would it not keep pumping much more? Yeah, you feel like you are going to be richer than your wildest dreams!

- You start to feel not only as if you did a great investment but as if you had just hit some fucking and totally undeserved big lotto prize.

- You feel that the price has come so much higher than you would have expected (in that short timeframe) that, even when the necessary "correction" comes, the bottom will still be so high that you won't care about not having sold ANY... Because, you know, this time (tm) Bitcoin is so well known and popular that price would not decimate, maybe not even halve (and of course that $10K you never expected to be broken so soon nor so easily will act as an ultimate support in the worst case, yeah!).

I could add more signals of when the top has been reached or is very near, but I guess that's more than enough to get the idea.

This is getting long, so I think I will better be writing this as a series of posts... Some ideas I have in mind about more mistakes I did and how to improve on them are:

- Realising you are in a clear downtrend and what to do during it.
- Hedging with alts during the bullrun, near the top, and on the downtrend. Hedging with stablecoins (ie USDT).
- Managing exchanges and FIAT ramps for profit (diversify risk and get them all ready well in advance)...
- Lending

I am writing this as advice for my future self, but hope it gets useful to someone else. Will continue.

Not a depression. This is a normal wave. It will remain normal if the low does not get under $1500.

The recovery will take 2-3 years.

It's getting tricky to understand how much it could go lower, but probably you are right. This is a huge depression.

Surprising , many still dont expect it.

This market has been easy to predict in 2018. It is not difficult to see what lies ahead, either.

I can't believe most of them have retained the price they still have. Which says to me we still have a ways to go.

I can't believe some alts are so cheap, in 2017 everybody believed prices would have rised more and more... now it could be a huge opportunity to get into the market.

Although, scam coins are still present and I don't see Ethereum in good shape as it was 1 year ago.

To sleep well and not have dreams of this type, you have to put Bitcoin in your Christmas tree, but in a discreet way.
This year if things go on like this, do not talk about BTC at home.

In the meantime, what we can do is prepare some good fiat stash for when/if that doom scenario happens. Buying right now, not so sure. Buying soon, most certainly.

Fortunately it all looks so doom. It must be harder to trick people by dumping it lower as people are coming to expect it.

In addition, we should consider all the lost BTC which means the number you exposed is even lower.

If we don't see a bounce, this place will soon be known as the Wailing WALL.

https://messari.substack.com/p/tax-loss-selling-unqualified-opinions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio