Since the whole thread is people pretending the losses are entirely temporary paper losses while under the delusion the price will be a trillion dollars per coin someday, I think the downward grind and actual capitulation number might surprise even me. At this point, from $2xxx to $1xxx will be the despair phase, and three digits will be the anger phase where random shitcoiners start sending death threats to people like Antonoplous for tricking them into malinvestments.
Do you think the decline is due to people panicing or due to TPTB, like this
https://breakermag.com/when-wall-street-financializes-bitcoin-who-benefits/and the futures?
I wasn't trying to pin down an exact number or anything with that, I was mostly mentioning it doesn't feel like any type of capitulation has occurred. Like you have this delusional poster named "BTCMillionaire" who claims the odds of bitcoin failing are 0% and it's guaranteed to be a million dollars a coin each, and all kinds of mindless people joining in going "yo dude, so true man, let me hit that crackpipe too bro". It kind of spells out way longer downward grind ahead.
It's also hilarious for people to claim bitcoin can't fail when it's guaranteed to fail just the way the block rewards are structured alone. While there's a high, static block reward running, each transaction is hugely subsidized. When the block reward is either zero or low without a corresponding price increase, transactions are no longer hugely subsidized, and miners are then forced to try and raise taxes so to speak, or most of them just bankrupt and disappear leaving you an easily attacked chain.
The point is, once transactions are no longer hugely subsidized by a high dollar value static block reward in some manner or another, they'll be hugely expensive. As long as there's some other type of shitcoin besides bitcoin operating out there in the blue somewhere with a high static block reward running that subsidizes their transactions, whether it's infinite inflation Dogecoin or some other random coin, people will just start sending transactions on the cheaper, more subsidized chain instead as long as security is not pathetically weak (and it probably won't be due to having a more efficient Ponzi that debases hodlers).
There's really only four possible options here:
1) People will slowly migrate away from bitcoin to more subsidized or inflationary chains that debase hodlers because they'd rather have cheap transactions than several hundred dollar or more transactions.
2) People will move to some entirely centralized, closed entropy system like proof of stake solely because it has less overhead and cheaper transactions.
3) Bitcoin itself will be forced to change to some other consensus mechanism with less overhead because nobody will pay the amount of overhead wanted by miners when they can pay less with some other alternative. (Bitcoin PoW is centralized and thus suffers most of the same cons as all the even more centralized systems anyway)
4) People will realize it's not possible to create a decentralized digital currency, that neither PoW, PoS, or anything else is possible to be decentralized, and boycott cryptocurrency entirely and use something like physical metals.