Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1233. (Read 26706947 times)
January 16, 2024, 06:01:15 PM
January 16, 2024, 05:35:54 PM
The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.
Gold ETF had 9 mo of "chop" to a small down.
I'll give btc ETF half a time, which "coincidentally" would be at around halving
We could see a pop just prior a la May-June 2016 (it was a $439 to $763 "pop" back then or 74%).
I am not predicting the same %, but it could "rhyme".
I think one of the major differences with gold vs BTC is that everyone is aware of the halving and it's effect on supply and spot price. I think anyone looking at buying an ETF will want to get the most bang for their buck when the price finally stabilizes (looks like we are getting close to stable price again).
Then again, they may also want to see the buy action increase before diving in...
January 16, 2024, 05:24:45 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA
January 16, 2024, 05:15:12 PM
yeah its done.
Sad times. We do all respect the effort that you put in, but alas man is no match for machine. Let us all just agree that the content of your posts is much more valuable than our little Buddy friend. Not to mention I'm sure you've mined more BTC... Nevertheless, this is the end of an era for our friend Phil. Unless, someone can go back and find some back to back posts by Buddy to report... Maybe it's not over yet? Summon the forum Karens!
January 16, 2024, 05:14:00 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA
Oh yes, Terminator, I forgot... It just looks so odd... The only human-looking part remaining...
I'll refresh your memory -
edit: oops. Wrong gif. It was this one:
I have far too many Arnold gifs.
LOL, yes! I remember that line, and also the famous "I'll be back." That movie was so cool to watch at the time it came out (early 90s?), and even today actually.
January 16, 2024, 05:13:54 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA
Oh! Right... the teeth support the nose which in turn supports the cool shades.
Also, I think these terminator robots were supposed to "blend in" while indiscriminately blowing away anything that gets in the was of their objective(s).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqW6AkTFYQA
January 16, 2024, 05:08:53 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA
Oh yes, Terminator, I forgot... It just looks so odd... The only human-looking part remaining...
I'll refresh your memory -
edit: oops. Wrong gif. It was this one:
I have far too many Arnold gifs.
January 16, 2024, 05:06:16 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA
Oh yes, Terminator, I forgot... It just looks so odd... The only human-looking part remaining...
January 16, 2024, 05:02:32 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA
Oh! Right... the teeth support the nose which in turn supports the cool shades.
Also, I think these terminator robots were supposed to "blend in" while indiscriminately blowing away anything that gets in the was of their objective(s).
January 16, 2024, 05:01:15 PM
January 16, 2024, 04:55:16 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysVqI9zTEA
January 16, 2024, 04:49:42 PM
[...]
Looking at this image, I can't help but wonder...
Why TF does a robot need teeth?
January 16, 2024, 04:32:08 PM
The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.
Gold ETF had 9 mo of "chop" to a small down.
I'll give btc ETF half a time, which "coincidentally" would be at around halving
We could see a pop just prior a la May-June 2016 (it was a $439 to $763 "pop" back then or 74%).
I am not predicting the same %, but it could "rhyme".
January 16, 2024, 04:03:26 PM
January 16, 2024, 03:41:27 PM
yeah its done.
F
January 16, 2024, 03:03:22 PM
January 16, 2024, 02:48:50 PM
And Bitcoin has bounced back
Stay above 42900 and up up we go.
50K before next week runs out.
Obviously, i close my eyes and i see Bitcoin already at 50k before the week runs out. Does anyone here doubt my speculation? i can bet on this lol Stay above 42900 and up up we go.
50K before next week runs out.
. Even the parliament and judges of the circle cannot stop it from happening .Humble respect to them
With GBTC fees 130basis points over their direct competitors, there's really no good reason for anyone to be with them, so looks like they've accepted their fate and just milking people as they exit. But they still have $26B AUM so it might take longer than a week for them to unwind.
You keep repeating this over and over...hoping that one day it would be correct?
If somebody sold GBTC on day one and immediately transferred to, say, ibit without knowing how well it will track or where it stands vs NAV, they lost 10-15%, which corresponds to GBTC fees in a DECADE or so.
I just hope it wasn't someone here
Would be interesting to see where you're getting those numbers at? Haven't figured out a good way to track live price to NAV, but on the second day when GBTC had $484,1MM outflows Bloomberg put their discount to -117 to IBITs premium of +16 basis points. So actually, GBTC is the only outlier on the tracking! Since all current ETFs are cash creation/redemption GBTC had to sell those BTC, such amounts would cause slippage thus the discount.
GBTC had a ~5% discount from the get go and ibit started from about 10% premium, check the first day: GBTC lost 5%, ibit about 10%...so, flipping GBTC to ibit resulted in an immediate haircut. Now, that GBTC discount is "only" 1.17%, feel free to flip... I do feel that freedom now
EDIT: I calculate current discount to NAV as 0.4% in GBTC.
January 16, 2024, 02:21:01 PM
The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.
January 16, 2024, 02:07:21 PM
I just want to mention, if you haven't seen it yet, you should check out FeeBuddy in the Mempool Observer Topic. Its a cool bot created by bitmover:
It posts once every 6 hours with the current fee estimates. I keep track of new posts by visiting "Show unread replies..", so you know, reply once in the topic and you'll always see it when it updates. Or of course add it to your Watchlist if you want (does anyone actually use that?).
- fastestFee: 66 sat/vB
- halfHourFee: 61 sat/vB
- hourFee: 56 sat/vB
- economyFee: 48 sat/vB
- minimumFee: 24 sat/vB
It posts once every 6 hours with the current fee estimates. I keep track of new posts by visiting "Show unread replies..", so you know, reply once in the topic and you'll always see it when it updates. Or of course add it to your Watchlist if you want (does anyone actually use that?).
Thanks for mentioning
I created this bot inspired by ChartBuddy!
I just added a new function to him. He is now going to post a chart of the last 3 days fees. This will come up in the next post!
January 16, 2024, 02:03:23 PM
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