Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 12462. (Read 26716032 times)

bonus example: https://bitcoinwisdom.io/grids/momlp0c1zlzq9q

My first guess would be hats...a perfect correlation (to the downside: as hats increase on WO, the price of btc decrease world-wide).

Re hint...De Beers & Russia?

In hindsight, people were calling 'head and shoulders' (which I never really believe in) in my earshot even before Hairy posted his to the thread. But this was a classic, even if someone is trolling us. kudos where it's due.

What kind of witchery is this?!?!?!

Since when has been this .io site up?

Updated fibs.

1h

The volume has declined under 6B$. Lets hope the price will not dip.

At the peak, yes.  It’s only 14x prior ATH. 

ftfm 

Ok boys we have three hours to turn this monthly green.
Everybody stop drinking and buy $100 of bitcoin right now.
If we all pull together as a team, hairy and bald, prickly and smooth, bigot and oppressed, brown, pink, hatted and hatless, we can do it.

What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales
9. Hats

And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern?


Edit:
Hint -- What drives the price of diamonds?

I believe we won't go lower than 3k or something around this and, if that will be the case, those price windows will be available just for a short time, it probably won't stabilize on those prices for a while.

Here is my attempt at btc bottoming fundamental analysis:

Bitcoin mining difficulty peaked on 9/30/2018, then went flat, now rapidly declining.
The last time this happened on a sustained basis was during Nov 2011 bottom.

In 2011 it took four months before market bottomed and decline in difficulty stopped (in correlation with the price rebound).
Counting from 9/30, we are already two months into difficulty decline period.
If total decline period is to last only four months, we would need to turn around (price-wise) within a month (or already) to get to the rise again by the end of four months period.
One may argue that it could last longer, but nobody knows what the result of such decline would be on system functioning. Yes, difficulty would slowly adjust downwards and relieve the pressure on miners, but it takes two weeks for adjustment, which might be too slow for some.

IF, on the other hand, you would continue both price and difficulty decline until mid 2019, bitcoin might be in jeopardy by the time it turns around there.

I'm not sure if you're trying to whoosh me or not.

One way to rile up folks... talk about something meaningful, hats.

hahahahahahaha

WheatBits has been shooting the acid directly into the balls of his eyes. I believe this was jojo's idea. We can all see through time now.

Trust us.

A fad is like a trend/fashion that passes. Kind of like a haircut or sneakers that aren’t cool for long

Well, what this contention is based on, exactly?
There is no law that in bitcoin bear markets have to last the same time as bull markets (or longer).
In US stocks market, by comparison, bull markets typically last longer (in time) than bear markets (at least in the last 100-120 years).
I "digested" the last bull market just fine, so I vote for bull resumption earlier than mid 2019.

TL;DR Basically, this is just an opinion that is not based on anything else than your "gut". It could be right, but could be wrong just as well.

Sounds like you are in the 75/25 camp, or something like that.

I never feel like it is good for my psyche to have that much confidence, that is why I just (in the last post) put myself at about 47/53... maybe if we play around in these territories for a while, I might convert into a 53/47-ish kind of guy.. but I cannot say for sure... and also, when there is a lot of movement, confidence lowers about any kind of prediction, at least for me, and it can just take a bit of time to watch it play out and to attempt to get bearings back.



Fair enough on that one.


Actually, for us HODLers and longer time-horizon thinkers (even though I would not really consider 2021 to be a really long time horizon), or whatever the fuck we might be called, there is a kind of getting a stake in the thing that goes  on in the early stages, but then maintenance is also going to include some ongoing accumulation because it is likely that we still have some discretion over ongoing cashflow that we have, and if we did not make some bad decisions and over invest and engage in some unnecessary panic losses (which also could just be part of the learning process about these kinds of highly volatile and new asset class markets)



Of course, I had seen some of your old posts and strategies, since you were kind of a highlighted special here in WO thread in recent times, and some of our strategies differed in the early days... yet I was pretty highly down too... I believe that my max amount of down was in the 65% territory... and during that time, I was trying to figure out ways to be prudent, and I also realized that every extra dollar that I put into bitcoin would bring my cost per BTC down by quite a lot, so there was a considerable incentive to buy more BTC - even while at that same time it was scary (and perhaps seemingly lacking of prudence) to invest more into something that you already had a lot invested into and was underwater.

I am probably in around 5x up territory currently, depending upon how matters are calculated.  It can become a bit complicated to calculate sometimes... but the point for both you and me remains very similar in that there were times of considerable negative value as compared to currently having decently sized equity and cushion in the who investment.  From the outset, I considered investing into bitcoin as a kind of novel investment, and I thought that if I can get it to perform equally or even in the ballpark of my traditional investments (which tend to average in about the 5% to 6% territory), then I am doing quite well... and think about it, 5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena (with a decent amount of cushion).  I am not even calculating accurately because it's not like I put all of my money in on day 1, so when dollar cost averaging in, it can be a decently greater calculation obstacle to figure out overall average return - yet some people will make attempts to take snapshots, such as where they were at at the end of each calendar year,  and then attempt to average it out from that (even though those would be kind of weighted averages since the BTC balance would be different each snapshot, too).


I think that part of my goal has been to attempt to make bitcoin a more boring investment for me, but having so much ongoing action and drama in the bitcoin space (and the ongoing attacks on bitcoin) seems to cause some inabilities to completely detach from some ongoing involvement in the investment... yet, at the same, time, I do believe that if BTC value does continue to go up in any kind of reasonable way (that is largely presumed to have high likelihood), then my goal to become a lot more passive in my BTC investment has decent odds of realization in the coming years.. and moreso the longer that I project out the timeline (and decent likelihood of enjoying while having some youth).

What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

Now you are just producing FUD

/S



Why is it so difficult to comprehend? It is possible to be a realist and see a trend to a lower price and also see the bigger picture of the next ATH!