what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?
A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges. Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy? Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.
Or am i not understanding something?
My post will allow your earlier linked image to be seen (above )
(
Edit - although Ludwig Von beat me to it.. hahahahaha).
Maybe you should explain a bit more about what you are getting at, exactly, because for several months there had been decent BTC price variance (premium) on USD tether based exchanges ranging between $50 and $250. Currently that premium is in the $200 area, but a day or two ago it had gotten below $100 for a while.. so I still don't seem to understand your point, exactly?
How much do we really care about "true" BTC price anyhow? We have some folks taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities, and we have FUD thrown around about tether, and surely the introduction of "stable coins" is not going to really resolve any of this any time soon, is it?
Surely, an additional factor is that a lot of folks tend to use Bitstamp as our price reference point for other reasons as well, including that bitstamp does not engaged in margin trading...
sorry for my english. i am happy you chose the example of bitstamp.
I try to explain harmonic patterns appear on USDT exchanges much more regularly than on a place similar to bitstamp.additionally bitstamp is lower price than a bitcoin live sell exchance such as cex.io. how can this be? if harmonics are the purest form of Fibonacci numbers in trading then this suggests that tether trades fit a more natural organic pattern.
bitstamp for my experice is a good example. it is higher in bull times, and lower in bear times, suggesting the manipulation is there not with usdt. When harmonic patterns show on tether echanges, especaily bitstamp will behave almost opersite to the expected result of fibbonacci harmonic patterns. this is why the price flutuates between supposed usd and usdt, and additionally why bitstamp is lower than cex.io.
I believe that bitstamp especally is price manipulating, either a alorthim program, the exchange or one or many traders. you can also see the bitstam orderbook is not behaving normally.
It seems to me that you are attempting to find exact explanations for events that might not be exactly explanable.
There are a lot of exchanges, and larger whales are frequently going to attempt to play on exchanges that they believe are price leaders; however, since there are so many exchanges, sometimes one kind of exchange (whether USD or USD Tether connected) might end up leading momentum.
Sometimes the lead and the manipulation works, and sometimes it does not. Of course, there are people who attempt to study these kinds of phenomenon, but these types of phenomenon don't always tell you which way the BTC price is going to go with any certainty.
Sometimes pumped exchanges will be out of wack for a while, and then after a few hours, or sometimes days or sometimes weeks, might come back in alignment.
Another factor that affects differences of prices on one exchange versus another has to do with how easy it might be to get fiat in or out of the exchange.
Of course, there are conclusions that you can specifically make about the value of USD tether and whether the USD tether is sufficiently backed up or whether they have legal turmoils that could undermine their value, relative to actual USD or some USD stable coin.
In the end, the question becomes what are you attempting to conclude from your analysis of BTC price differences on exchanges? Are you trying to predict the direction of the BTC price? Are you trying to predict if BTC price has bottomed?
In fact, you might look at a variety of exchanges and come to a kind of tentative conclusion about what you think is going on, but if you want to present the facts here (in this thread), then for sake of clarity (not to confuse anyone) it is better to refer to the bitstamp price dynamics and if you want to specify what kind of price action is going on some other exchange then either specify which exchange(s) you are referring to or compare the referred to exchange to what is going on on bitstamp in order to attempt to make your point clearly about what you are trying to prove or predict with the information that you are presenting.
Sometimes it can be difficult to make any kind of meaningful short term conclusions, especially when the BTC price is moving a lot, and of course, sometimes posters will look at a variety of exchanges and compare BTC price actions and trade volumes on the various exchanges in order to attempt to assess or predict, yet a tentative conclusion that you might make at one point in time, may change at another point in time, because the BTC price dynamics are surely fluid and affected by a lot of factors besides differences in exchanges, momentum, manipulation and even, sometimes, non-BTC trading pairs...
Yet, this thread attempts to focus more on the USD to BTC trading pair.
I still don't really understand what purpose it would achieve to conclude about "true" BTC price as you seemed to had been attempting to figure that out?
