Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1267. (Read 26731126 times)
February 17, 2024, 05:01:14 AM
February 17, 2024, 04:57:11 AM
Psst... Buddy I made you a pizza, but there might not be enough to share...
...who am I kidding. This ain't no NFP, everyone can download a copy.
...who am I kidding. This ain't no NFP, everyone can download a copy.
February 17, 2024, 04:01:18 AM
February 17, 2024, 03:45:15 AM
[...]
6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you.
$100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?
6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you.
$100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?
You probably meant 7 digits for 2mil, for example...sorry
.I can't think of any 6 digit number to be a fu situation...a nice chunk of "change", but hardly a fu, even in the heartland and forget about it on the coasts.
[...]
Jay has already explained it -- 6 digits = $100k+/coin. Assuming a 20 BTC stash, this is entry-level spot price f.u. status (whatever the implications of spot price vs. 200 WMA may be). You seem to be describing a situation where a mere couple of coins can achieve this, so then, yes, a 7-digit spot price would be needed.
In any case, I quite like the $2M as the entry-level f.u. status threshold, but I tend to multiply it by about 5, in order to secure it against unforeseeable events that may affect spot price. Basically this is very roughly equivalent to using the 200 WMA (my beloved indicator) as a basis for any calculations/predictions when it comes to spot price mega-pumps that are not likely to affect the 200 WMA value much in the short term. IOW, the 200 WMA acts as a filter, shaving off any spikes (up or down), effectively setting a (quite reliable IMHO) lower bound envelope for spot price (although that envelope has been broken a few times, esp. during the mid-2022 to mid-2023 bear period).
How big must the upcoming pump be, in order for the 200 WMA to reach $100k? Looking at past cases of spot vs. 200 WMA prices during pumps, it seems that the spot/WMA ratio tends to go down with time.
End of 2013: 28x
End of 2017: 16x
End of 2021: 4x
End of 2025: ???x
For the purpose of this exercise, let's SOMA-guess that it's going to be around 3x. This would mean that the spot price at the end of 2025 would be around $300k. So, 20 BTC would be right at the entry-level f.u. status threshold (according to the 200 WMA of $100k), with the added cushion of 3x f.u. status of $6M (based on spot price).
Looking forward to filling the green part of my post...
February 17, 2024, 03:01:16 AM
February 17, 2024, 02:23:27 AM
. February 17, 2024, 02:01:15 AM
February 17, 2024, 01:24:44 AM
https://www.tomsguide.com/computing/malware-adware/first-ever-ios-trojan-discovered-and-its-stealing-face-id-data-to-break-into-bank-accounts
"Once installed on either an iPhone or an Android phone, GoldPickaxe can collect facial recognition data, identity documents and intercepted text messages, all to make it easier to siphon off funds from banking and other financial apps. To make matters worse, this biometric data is then used to create AI deepfakes to impersonate victims and access their bank accounts."
February 17, 2024, 01:16:41 AM
wtf
February 17, 2024, 01:03:26 AM
February 17, 2024, 12:03:22 AM
February 16, 2024, 11:45:39 PM
6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you.
$100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?
You probably meant 7 digits for 2mil, for example...sorry $100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?
.I can't think of any 6 digit number to be a fu situation...a nice chunk of "change", but hardly a fu, even in the heartland and forget about it on the coasts.
I am pretty sure that he was referring to BTC prices reaching $100k would contribute towards many WO members getting into FU status, so that would mean only 20 BTC if we are talking about spot price.. so it is a bit bothersome for me because he seemed to be including himself in that group.. even though I thought that we was on board using the bottom price rather than the top price in order to figure out when some of us might be reaching entry-level fuck you status.. referring to the current $2 million default/reference level.
So in this particular factual example the guys who bought in 2015 and had a base of $250 per BTC and who did not sell any of their BTC, they would have had experienced 8 doublings that would have brought their holdings up to 256x for a short period of time during the period that BTC was priced at more than $64k, and so then their amount of value would have come back down to 6 doublings when the BTC price dropped back down to around $16k (which would have been around 64x) and then now they are currently in the supra 7 doublings that would have been 128x when the BTC prices were at $32k, and they will be back to 256x once (or if) the BTC price gets back to supra $64k, and then if the BTC price goes above $128k, then they will get into the supra 512x territory..
So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.
Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.
Yea, the thought occurred that if you had been through several doublings (since, for example, 2015), then you don't really need much of those to make bank, so to speak.So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.
Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.
Each new doubling becomes very sweet.
Doublings are amazing ways to achieve compounding, and even if you shave BTC off along the way, you still would achieve a lot of compounding, especially if you are shaving off way less than 50% of your stash for every doubling.. so if you were shaving off in the ballpark of 10% for every doubling, then you have 40% compounding each time, and sure it is not as good as having a full stash, but it is still pretty amazing, especially since many times regular investing probably tends to ONLY perform in the range of 5% to 12% per years, so it has historically taken 6-10 years to double.. and even if BTC has not doubled every year, but it came pretty damned close in the last 8-9 years it had right around 7-8 doublings, retraced back to 6 yet is still in a pretty solid territory of 7 doublings and coming upon 8.
Now there might be some guys who might have started in those same areas, but still would rather start with something like a $300 -$500 starting point, so that would throw things off a bit and maybe even take away an additional doubling, but it still ends up being amazing performance even if the doublings of value end up being every few years rather than every year.
It's one thing to double from $500 to $1000 (or even $5000 to $10000) and a completely different story to double from, say, $50 mil to $100mil in an extreme case (a 750 btc theoretical guy/gal with about $50 mil at ATH in 2021 will be at $100 mil when btc would be at 133K, a very doable price point).
There surely are some WO members (maybe even historical) who might have had those kinds of numbers, but even if we try to be a bit more realistic with stack sizes of around 100 BTC.. if we use spot price, then those guys would have reached $6.9 million in 2021, and then corrected back down to $1.6 million and then currently be back to around $5.2 million and surely you are not going to be sneezing at $10 million for $100k BTC prices, are you? Maybe you, personally, feel that you would need more cushion than that, but even another doubling from $100k to $200k is surely doable, too. .whether it is in this cycle or having to wait another cycle.. and it seems that a guy should be able to work with $20 million..
Even though I am seeming to be the party poop in this particular case, because even though I would likely not be afraid to be shaving off some of those BTC, even for a guy with a measly 100 BTC, but I am also not going to be valuing that at spot price when it comes to the determination that it has either reached entry level fuck you status or some amount above that in order to get started.
So even with 100 BTC (which surely is a nice round number that we should be able to easily work with and even attempt to make it a bit more relatable for guys of more modest means), we even had a regular WO member who continued to tell us that he had 100 BTC, but he has not been coming around in recent times, so that kind of sucks.. easy come, easy go... or maybe it is not so easy come, and easy go, if you are not careful? which many of us likely realize that is not easy to be your own bank.. even if we take a lot of precautions..
So getting back to fair valuations, I surely would consider the 100 BTC to be well into entry level fuck you status and somewhat free to be engaging in various levels of sustainable withdrawal.. including that current bottom prices are still going to put the 100 BTC guy at 3.11 million and bottom price values going up at a pace of about $3,300 per day.. so there is a lot of cushion to even be spending at relatively low withdrawal rates if there might be some concerns that there are desires to get the principle value up to something closer to $10 million, so that would be around another 3x increase in the 200-week moving average.. and the higher the spot price goes the more that the spot price draws the 200-week moving average upwardly.
Even my entry level fuck you status chart projects 100 BTC to be worth $10million, in terms of bottom BTC prices by early 2029.. so that really is not that far away.. 5 years from now..
I am not sure where you are at Biodom, but I get the sense that even you are more inclined to want to keep your wealth in BTC rather than me, since you talk about not wanting to sell any, and there is nothing really wrong with that, yet I get the sense that not very large amounts of BTC need to be shaved off, except surely we have to try to live with more prudence if the BTC prices are way closer to the 200-WMA versus if they are quite a bit above the 200-WMA... like now with BTC spot prices aroudn 67% above the 200-WMA.. and maybe that is more or less a fair range, even though maybe in the future, we might consider 25% above the 200 WMA to be more reasonable on a regular basis versus how erratic that BTC spot tends to get.
750 btc was a bit less than $10K in early 2013, affordable to many, but only a few people got that then.
I am sure, only few hundreds to few thousands individuals, worldwide, not more than that.
I am sure, only few hundreds to few thousands individuals, worldwide, not more than that.
The fact that so few own that many coins seem like a reason to not be fantasizing about them, even if some of them might be present in this thread... One thing is accumulating that many coins and another thing is still having that number of coins and being able to manage them right now.
Even my fuck you status chart shows that level of coins entering into fuck you status in mid-to-late 2018... although back then we were still considering $1 million as entry level fuck you status which would have gotten him into entry level fuck you status in late 2017... but surely the 2090-week moving average continued to move up quite rapidly in those days.. and probably we still consider the 200-week moving average to be moving up rapidly but the quantity of coins that it takes to reach entry level fuck you status has ongoingly tended to change quite dramatically - and yeah in the ongoing and persistent downward direction.
72 maybe 80k which I think JJG calls wake me up is true bull.
You surely are getting my own terms mixed up.
And, currently I am considering $55k to $82k to be within no man's land or maybe bat country.. which largely is 20% on each side of the current ATH, which means that it is not too likely that the BTC price will be hanging around in those territories.. and sure it could take a few weeks to get through that whole zone, but relatively speaking it is not a place to be selling or a place that there should be much resistance.. but sure, anything can end up happening, but the odds are not really in favor of spending very much time between around 20% below and 20% above the current ATH.
Sure I could be wrong.. even though I find it a bit retarded for some people to be planning to sell BIGGEDly within that zone or even to be getting excited about it.. and yeah people can do what they like and they can get excited over what they like.. and yeah, don't get me wrong, I am likely to be getting excited too.. but I still won't be expecting to be hangin around those prices for very long... even if it might seem like a long time while we are going through it, but it is quite likely that when we look back at that price range after we get through it, it may well end up not being a lot of time that we had been hanging out there.... but hey, it surely is not 100% and anything can happen.. but you still need to consider in terms of what is more likely to happen... and hopefully act accordingly.. .
I don't really change my system very much even when I have some predictions, so I will still have sales in that area that are tending to be a bit smaller than usual.. but really the sales still exist for me.. even though I don't expect to be able to buy back for any of those sales.. even though sometimes we will have quickie ups and downs in those areas (do they call that fake-outs?) and sometimes there will end up being a lot of drying up of liquidity so the price moves a lot up and the buy orders do not keep up, so then it drops a lot and then the sell orders do not keep up and then it shoots back up because there are hardly any sell orders.. and so that is just typically what ends up happening when the BTC price moves fast in one direction.
February 16, 2024, 11:12:33 PM
February 16, 2024, 11:01:15 PM
February 16, 2024, 10:05:09 PM
Some bitcoiners bristle at ETFs...not me.
Bought into a couple a few days ago (in Roth)...not taxable, haha.
A path: from some strange swedish bitcoin ETP (Bitcoin XBT tracker One or something like that) and straight into US-based.
An expensive tx (they REALLY fleece you), but it was up about 10X since 2020, so, no biggie.
I grabbed some too. I went with FBTC for the custody diversification. Also tossed it in a Roth IRA. Bitcoin is cool and holding your own is respectable, but long term Bitcoin gains without having to self custody or pay taxes on gains… That’s just too good to avoid for any reason. I’m up 25% already. Bought into a couple a few days ago (in Roth)...not taxable, haha.
A path: from some strange swedish bitcoin ETP (Bitcoin XBT tracker One or something like that) and straight into US-based.
An expensive tx (they REALLY fleece you), but it was up about 10X since 2020, so, no biggie.
Its not well publicised but you can withdraw your roth contribtions without any penalty/tax so long as its only the contribution amount and not any profit.
Sounds a bit reckless to be using retirement funds as your "emergency funds."
Another day in the books (UTC) and another green candle. That's 11 of the last 12 days.
Gee. Are we in a bull market yet?
no first we must get into the top 100 see thread link:Gee. Are we in a bull market yet?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58617278
number 55375 is in 100th place
so we are close but not there.
The essence of the matter is that we have been in a bull trend since November 2022 - at least that was the bottom, but we might not have had realized it until around March of 2023 when BTC price went from the mid $20ks to the lower $30ks but still failed/refused to break above $32k until October 2023.. so it cannot always be easy to call or to know.. and so bull trend versus bull market can be a bit ambiguous both in terms of if we are in it and when it might have had started.
How far it is going to take us, and when it might end may well be additional questions that are not easy to figure out.. even though right now we should be able to identify quite strong UPpity BTC price pressures, even if there are potentially various sticky resistance points along the way and even if we might experience some decently large corrections at various points.. and so even since October, we have only had around 3 corrections that were more 10%.. and a couple of them just barely with only one correction taking us 21%.. so seems a lot of UPpity.. even though there have been various pauses in the UPpity... but so far not giving too many opportunties to buy back. .which also might end up causing us to be able to go through noman's zone.. though I am still a bit nervous if we were to get into noman's zone now in terms of being able to completely make it through within 2-6 weeks, which surely would end up being fairly rapidly with any of those kinds of scenarios. .. .but not completely out of the question.. and difficult to really place time and price on something like that... even though the UPpity pressure seems to be ongoing.
[edited out
I agree with almost everything, including the vibe, but Microstrategy in SP500? This is not going to happen for at least 10 years, maybe never.Why? For the same reason as why GLD is not in SP500. Basically, very small earnings (in MSTR case).
MSTR is almost like a no fee leveraged bitcoin ETF.
Do I wish that I bought it in my retirement account?
Sure...but it ain't a SP500 destined entity, imho.
That said, we are steadying for the next burst up, imho, with nary a dip.
How can guys, like uie pooie, express so much confidence. and maybe I am not quite at 60/40 in terms of my thought so Up versus down.. maybe 57% 43%... .. .. (of course if we put sideways in there it gets even more complicated, so let's just talk about breaking up or down) but then if we are still in the "don't wake me up zone",** then why do I even care until if we were to get above $55k, then for this here cat that would constitute UP... .. so I would not really be counting $53k or $54k as up, even though technically they would be UP, and probably I would not even count $55k as up, either unless the BTC price were to keep going UPpity and kind of gets caught above something like a $55k price point... but then.. where would we be.. scary territory (which by the way is within about 20% of the ATH.. which why it get's such a reference)..
** by the way, I think that I have to officially move the bottom of don't wake me up zone from $35k and up to $38k. maybe even $40k, even though I am a bit hesitant to come right out and say $40k.. especially since I hate getting overly excited and then being called names (such as an irrational bulltard.. even if it might be true).
February 16, 2024, 10:03:30 PM
February 16, 2024, 09:06:23 PM
Another day in the books (UTC) and another green candle. That's 11 of the last 12 days.
Gee. Are we in a bull market yet?
depends on the timeframe Gee. Are we in a bull market yet?
Short term (days) Yes
Mid term(weeks) not sure
Long term(months/years) Yes.
Short term (days) yes
Midterm (months) yes
Long term (years/decades) yes.
no first we must get into the top 100 see thread link:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58617278
number 55375 is in 100th place
so we are close but not there.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58617278
number 55375 is in 100th place
so we are close but not there.
What you're describing is a peak market, not a bull market. Of course it would also be part of a bull market.
Where did you come up with the top 100 days list as an arbitrary definition of a bull market?
Well this pretty simple reason. A bull market means profits are happening left and right and up and down.
Technically we are bull for almost all.
But in 60 days miners drop to bear due to the 1/2 ing. Plus all people that got in in 2021 at 55k or more are still losers.
So we are kind of bull. True bull is everyone one is up.
Right now we are close.
And 55.5k number 100 on the list would be short.
72 maybe 80k which I think JJG calls wake me up is true bull.
February 16, 2024, 09:01:15 PM
February 16, 2024, 08:43:42 PM
Another day in the books (UTC) and another green candle. That's 11 of the last 12 days.
Gee. Are we in a bull market yet?
depends on the timeframe Gee. Are we in a bull market yet?
Short term (days) Yes
Mid term(weeks) not sure
Long term(months/years) Yes.
Short term (days) yes
Midterm (months) yes
Long term (years/decades) yes.
no first we must get into the top 100 see thread link:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58617278
number 55375 is in 100th place
so we are close but not there.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58617278
number 55375 is in 100th place
so we are close but not there.
What you're describing is a peak market, not a bull market. Of course it would also be part of a bull market.
Where did you come up with the top 100 days list as an arbitrary definition of a bull market?
February 16, 2024, 08:16:02 PM
6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you.
$100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?
You probably meant 7 digits for 2mil, for example...sorry
.I can't think of any 6 digit number to be a fu situation...a nice chunk of "change", but hardly a fu, even in the heartland and forget about it on the coasts.
So in this particular factual example the guys who bought in 2015 and had a base of $250 per BTC and who did not sell any of their BTC, they would have had experienced 8 doublings that would have brought their holdings up to 256x for a short period of time during the period that BTC was priced at more than $64k, and so then their amount of value would have come back down to 6 doublings when the BTC price dropped back down to around $16k (which would have been around 64x) and then now they are currently in the supra 7 doublings that would have been 128x when the BTC prices were at $32k, and they will be back to 256x once (or if) the BTC price gets back to supra $64k, and then if the BTC price goes above $128k, then they will get into the supra 512x territory..
So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.
Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.
Yea, the thought occurred that if you had been through several doublings (since, for example, 2015), then you don't really need much of those to make bank, so to speak.
Each new doubling becomes very sweet.
It's one thing to double from $500 to $1000 (or even $5000 to $10000) and a completely different story to double from, say, $50 mil to $100mil in an extreme case (a 750 btc theoretical guy/gal with about $50 mil at ATH in 2021 will be at $100 mil when btc would be at 133K, a very doable price point).
750 btc was a bit less than $10K in early 2013, affordable to many, but only a few people got that then.
I am sure, only few hundreds to few thousands individuals, worldwide, not more than that.
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