Ok here we go. Let's talk long term. All $ are Bitstamp.
1. We appear to be in the process of breaking out from under the bear triangle. By simply tracking sideways, we can escape the crushing weight of the past 8 months. Going sideways is very bullish.
2. October is historically a bullish month for Bitcoin (excluding 2014).
3. We appear to be diverging from the 2014 fractal. October 2014 was bad for the price but we are mildly rallying. This is a bullish signal.
4. There is some great news coming out at the moment.
5. Shorting is really hard work. It feels like there is deep pocket support just below where we sit. Shorts are slowly starting to fall as traders shift their stance.
butThe support line from the crypto winter (show here as the lower red line) is rising from the deep. It is still at a fair depth and not yet in play. But it is big and fast and mean. And it will hit us like a freight train.
The Russian seer (Penthuldar??) says that this support line will lift us us into the new price range. But he is wrong, because he does not study his history. We broke through the historic exponential price floor during the 2014 cryptowinter, and it was this break that caused the final capitulation to $154. We also broke the previous exponential price floor in November 2012, which led us to the final capitulation and crash to $2.22. It is almost certain that we will break through the cryptowinter support line and then crash in price. This crash is likely to be our final capitulation, so we can start the long climb out. The really critical question is, what will our altitude be when we hit the wall? If we have a high enough altitude (green line), then we can still fall after we break through and bounce off support at $5,800. If we bounce off $5,800 after breaking the cryptowinter support line and manage to consolidate above it, then we will have seen the bottom because the halvening will start to come into play as we move deeper into 2019.
On the other hand, if we are too low (yellow line), then the shock of breaking the cryptowinter support line will cause us to break downwards through the $5,800 support and potentially get caught underneath it, like a fox that breaks through a frozen lake and drowns under the ice.
I am turning bullish right now, because it looks like we are slowly gaining altitude so we can follow the trajectory of the green line, and not the yellow line.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/52d3tpdU-Bitcoin-bear-trend-may-be-breaking-but-serious-challenges-ahead/ 
