Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1295. (Read 26729426 times)

I know.. I'm probably alone with this opinion but what I like about this girl is actually her cute face.

... and no, I'm not gonna resize this gif for my quote !

when ever i feel anxious i like to think about reindeer

Major difference compared to the Tim Draper case, buying the Silk Road bitcoins in 2014, is that the MtGox bitcoins already have owners.

Don't be so quick to dismiss the effect that the mtgox coins could have on the market.  Last time I looked the discussion was that about 130,000 BTC were going to hit the market once the coins are distributed.  After April we're looking at 450 BTC per day being added to the system.  That's like damn near dumping a year's worth (289 days) of BTC supply on the market overnight.  While there are certainly funds and OTC buyers lining up to get their hands on a massive chunk of BTC without moving the market, there's no way to tell if those 130K are going to be absorbed or cause an absolute market crash until it happens.  My hope is that people with deep pockets will see this as an entry point the way Tim Draper did back in 2012/2013 with the government auction of a massive amount of coins, but I wouldn't say it's certain.

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I am having trouble with all of these various predictions too.. because surely once we get above $55k then that is no man's land between $55k and $82k.. so  there still could be some resistance to actually get into $55k, but it is hard to say.

By the time the halvening comes the 200-week moving average will likely be right around $33k, so I am having trouble imagining that BTC spot prices is going to come that close to the 200-week moving average absent just a quick dip.

So, for sure, any BTC price theory that I have right now is jumbled and full of contradictions.. including that usually we do not test the previous ATH until around half a year after the halvening, but for a lot of reasons these are not normal times. ... so even if we might say that we get stuck in the $80k to $100k range, but that makes no sense either because the BTC price does not tend to get stuck at the top.. we will go to tops and then come back down a bit, so it could be the case that BTC prices go to almost $100k and then get stuck in the upper $70ks to lower $80ks for some time... and no matter what I consider, it seems difficult to really put it into a reasonable framework, and maybe it makes more sense to go to $120k and then come back and get stuck between $80k to $100k... all within this calendar year.. and that seems overly wishful thinking but it does not make sense to me to get stuck in no man's land and it also does not make a lot of sense to stay in this $40k to $55k range, either.. especially given how many BTC the ETF providers are continuing to have to buy in order to cover demand.. so it kind of makes sense that the BTC price goes up to accommodate that level of demand on liquidity.

I am not going to be surprised by anything, yet like you I am trying to consider more likely and less likely scenarios, and I just have troubles considering what I consider to be less likely scenarios whihc is BTC prices getting stuck in noman's land - even if that might be what ends up happening.