There is almost no scenario in which the price would go straight up, for example to a new ATH within a day or even within a week. I'm not even sure whether an ETF approval would cause that, or some kind of news that some country has made bitcoin it's official currency. Perhaps, but I have real doubts about such sudden exponential movement without any correction.
On the other hand, it is not likely, but we could get 100% or 200% within a week.. or we could get a kind of gradual UP and then, BAM, a sudden 100% to 200% UP within a week. Is that what you mean by one of these days, moon?
Is moon past the previous ATH or is it some other number?
Where is "moon" exactly?
if ((amount of btc * btc price) > target net worth) then MOON
O.k. Fair enough that moon is a number that would be somewhat individually tailored - and sometimes, members might need to disclose where that point is for themselves, and sometimes just thinking about "where is moon" can be a psychological well-being point.
Part of the reason that I frequently express so much content, even though we are still bouncing around in a 66.6666% correction arena, is that I had considered $3k to $5k to have been the top of the 2017-2018-ish bubble - meaning the next bubble that was coming after the 2013 ATH of $1,163. Accordingly, thereafter I had expected the top to have been in the $3-$5k range and then a correction into the $1k to $3k range. Therefore, it seems to me that there is still a lot of icing on this particular cake, and it kind of already seems, to me, that a variation of moon has already arrived.
All of what I am saying does not mean that I am bearish or that there is froth in this market, but a peak that goes to $19,666 remains in the approximately 5x area higher than expected and the correction back to $6k-ish remains in an area of about 5x higher than expected - and even with all of that 5x higher than expected, there seems to be plenty of upside potential, still.... because bitcoin continues to be in a very low adoption level - even with a lot of peeps coming into bitcoin, the numbers still remain trickles in comparison to the world population and in comparison to what is possible based on the ongoing good news in bitcoin, in terms of developments and the seeming solidity of the tech (and computing power for that matter - including bitcoin's continued winning of various infighting).
Sure there remains a question about whether alts are coming with on the next journey up, and so that could be the $1,000,000 question about how long any kind of continued correction goes on further or just drags out longer.... let's see, let's see... So even if we are at a kind of moon..., "When next moon?" might be more poignant of a question, perhaps?
As much as I want it to be different, a new moon will take a lot of time to materialise. The grind up to 20k will be long and hard, with tons of resistance levels established by previous run-up. Once we pass 20k, price discovery starts again and we are in uncharted waters.
Right JJG, I share your sentiment about btc adoption and also did not expect previous top to be this much of an overshoot. I'd caution everyone to be rather conservative in setting any sort of timeline for a next run, my experience has learned me this is always further away than one expects, especially after such a massive year for crypto that we had.
Still BTC and perhaps some other alts are terrific buys at this level from a long term perspective thats why I am hodling and accumulating, just as all you smart and fine gents in this thread
