I would accept that scenario right away (which holder wouldn't?).
Even though the scenario could happen, as a fellow HODLer, I don't accept it... at least not readily.
The scenario calls for an additional 50% down, based on an overlay of 2014/15 which were different circumstances than we find today. Yes, it could happen, but it is far from a given, and it is even reasonable that the bottom is already "in".
Unfortunately there is a high probability that futures markets (CME/CBOE/etc) have indeed sorta "tamed" Bitcoin and we won't see neither those lows nor those skyrocketing highs, at least not in that relatively short timeframe. But... I only know that I know nothing and anything is possible.
Your last sentence seem to be the most important, and even though the theories like to suggest that bitcoin has been "tamed" and volatility has gone down forever, how are they really going to tame it, when we still have way less than 1% of world adoption and a whole lot of stupid ass crazy with the alts too?
Financialization of bitcoin has both its ups and downs, but even a lot of those folks are still acquiring bitcoin and they want to "get rich" too, especially if they are able to take advantage of the least resistance when it happens, and when such "least resistance" happens to be UP, they will also join in on the buying frenzie... which seems to be a matter of "when" rather than "if".
I am "poor" already... If it is on the cards that I will be "sufficiently rich" someday just because of crypto... so be it.
Whoaza!!!! you have been registered here since early 2013, weren't you able to accumulate some BTC over the years? At least enough to have decent profits, even though you might not be "rich" yet, the decent profits should have removed you from "poor" status, relatively speaking, no?
In the meantime I will be working on other potentially profitable stuff to raise my probabilities of reaching that status one way or another.
It does not hurt to continue to accumulate BTC and even to have some kind of cashflow coming in and to use a decent amount of that cashflow to buy BTC. Hopefuily you don't delve into gambling and become desperate about becoming rich, which does not usually work as well as a sound investment strategy, such as accumulating BTC....
The next months/years are critical guys.
Agreed.