Speaking of Dull twit, I am coming to a tentative vision about some possible upcoming BTC price waves that could suggest that our BTC bottom is already "in"
So perhaps, at some point we are going to get price trickling up, and then a shooting up of the price that takes us above $10k, but just short of micgoosen's intermediary play game.. so just shy of $12k.. so that UP would take less than a month to play out, and then prices correct down to nearly $7k, and then get stuck in a $7,600 to $9k range for several months.... maybe 6 months-ish... before resuming progress towards the previous ATH... but then again getting stuck along the way, perhaps in the $14-$17k range for at least 6 months....
Therefore, we might not be breaking previous ATHs again for about a year and a half.. maybe that is too lackluster of a scenario given potential drama that could involve playing around with the halvening and an ETF that could cause additional UP drama? though I am thinking that we still have not experienced our true and complete blow-off top that would have been started by the December 2017 rise to $19,666... so there is that, too.
I know that a lot of us are thinking that alt coins are dead, but seems that whether we like it or NOT, they are coming with us for at least one more rally that will confuse a lot of normies about which coin to invest in... but those of us already who have been around the block understand that bitcoin is the solid one... especially if we are considering both upside and downside risks.
I doubt we will get stuck in the 14-17k range. Once we reach 12k, the amount of fomo will be ridiculous. We will speed past the ATH and reach a new level. I would not be surprised to see 30k at the end of year.
FOMO wont be the same because a lot of people are going to be scared of another crash, also a lot of people will take profits along the way this time (at least more people than last time). We will never achieve the same amount of FOMO unless we break 20k convincingly.
Actually, these are competing viewpoints described by each of you, goldkingcoiner and Astargath. Part of the reason why I hestitate to attempt to describe what is probable to happen beyond one leg at a time, because subsequent legs are more difficult to describe both because they depend upon what had caused the earlier leg, if anything beyond pure momentum, and how fast the earlier leg passes through its progression, including degree and duration of built-in corrections.
At this point, I am more inclined towards Astargath's scenario, mostly because it is more conservative, and it is really difficult to get a straight upwards without some profit taking along the way, especially given the fact that our current correction has been largely bouncing between $6k and $10k (of course, we were above $10k for a few weeks, too), however, Astargath's describing panic selling and all that boloney about people must feel compelled to take profits, can be overwhelmed by situations in which the UPWARDs sentiment is overwhelming, and even the fact that some pretty BIG whales can negate the impact of a bunch of regular folk weak hands selling because of their valuing their wealth in dollars, failure to understand bitcoin and lacking confidence in bitcoin.
So, yeah, as soon as I hit "post" for my earlier submission, I was having reservations about my own described scenario that I was considering to be amongst the most probable for a bull-type scenario because there remain many subsequently unknown events or news to change the probabilities and to cause the timeline to move much faster than my earlier momentum anticipations, and in that regard, we should continue to keep in mind that this whole bitcoin market (and even including all altcoins) still includes involvement of quite a bit less than 1% of the world-wide population, so there are an enormous number of decently wealthy folks (or complementary entities in which a small number of individuals control (even sometimes a bit covertly) such as governments, financial institutions, or investment groups) who could move the whole bitcoin market (and perhaps even several alts along the way) all by themselves, if they were to choose. We cannot rely on some of those kinds of single entity or small group of entities (or signaling from these groups) pumps like that happening, even though those kinds of pumps remains reasonably possible, especially considering the relatively low level of liquidity that can move the price in one direction and then cause momentum that kind of builds upon itself in a way that becomes beyond the control of any of them to stop, until it runs its reasonable (and by definition kind of unreasonable) course.