I am playing around with Google Trends data of "Bitcoin" as a search term v Bitcoin price. I used the daily values for each for 2018, converted to a percentage. Start date is 1 January 2018, end date is 5 September 2018.
Price is orange, trend data is green.
So, "absolute" is the number of bitcoin queries as a fraction of global Google use?
Hmm. I can't spot any pattern. Can you?
It would be nice to have the day scale in months/weeks rather than absolute numbers, with a few markers to put things into historical perspective.
The first peak in searches seems to anticipate the price. After that first event, the curves seem mostly uncorrelated. Maybe if we REALLY search Google a lot we could...?
I was of the opinion that google searches follow price (like in the FOMO period) rather than leading price.. in other words a lagging indicator.
I think where I am going with this is confirmation of a price trend. If google searches don't follow an upwards price trend, then the price trend is suspect.
Sure. When you are comparing google searches to BTC price, you might be able to find a bit of a trend here and there, but I would suspect that down trend will continue in google searches quite a bit after bitcoin has already been going up in price, and so the google search uptrend does not begin to show for so long that by the time you notice it, the price has already done a 2x or 3x from where it was.. perhaps more.
I bet you can see a similar thing in 2015/2016... Pretty much we were coming out of the bear market in late 2015.. (let's say such coming out happened in the October time frame when prices shot from mid-to-upper $200s to $500 and then settled back into the $350 to $450 range until about end of May 2016), but really we likely did not realize that we were out of such bear market until after May 2016.. but we even had some false starts after May 2016, too, with the Bitfinex crash in August 2016 and then some subsequent drama in late 2016 and early 2017 with the blocksize bullshit, flippening bullshit and BTC forking threats.
I bet that Google search trends did not really begin to pick up until late 2017 - even though the price had already done more than a 10x from its mid $200s and a lot of event confusion happened with subsequent BTC price surges in the middle.
Because of all of the fucking confusion regarding value, fundamentals and what is Bitcoin compared with crypto, I mean it seems to me that during the most recent price run, peeps did not really even start to get bullish about bitcoin and to start to think that bitcoin fundamentals were strong (and that bitcoin had overcome the propaganda and forkening threats) until about August/September 2017 - but BTC prices were already floating 10x from their 2015 starting point.. and that is really when the up-trend in google searches likely begun to show... so I am not sure how you are going to sort through the noise using google search information in confusing consolidating times like these.. and price can still go up and meaningfully go up even if google searches remain quite low for another year...and then we are in the $30k territory before peeps start to consider taking bitcoin seriously enough in order that there search information meaningfully increases... . something like that.
I am playing around with Google Trends data of "Bitcoin" as a search term v Bitcoin price. I used the daily values for each for 2018, converted to a percentage. Start date is 1 January 2018, end date is 5 September 2018.
Price is orange, trend data is green.
So, "absolute" is the number of bitcoin queries as a fraction of global Google use?
Hmm. I can't spot any pattern. Can you?
It would be nice to have the day scale in months/weeks rather than absolute numbers, with a few markers to put things into historical perspective.
The first peak in searches seems to anticipate the price. After that first event, the curves seem mostly uncorrelated. Maybe if we REALLY search Google a lot we could...?
I was of the opinion that google searches follow price (like in the FOMO period) rather than leading price.. in other words a lagging indicator.
I think where I am going with this is confirmation of a price trend. If google searches don't follow an upwards price trend, then the price trend is suspect.
I see your point, JJG and Hairy. It makes sense. But I can see such a confirmation only after the second spike - not the first.
This doesn't make as much sense, does it?
@ d_eddie - That might be something similar to what I am attempting to say, perhaps?