Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13168. (Read 26608596 times)

Hmmm talk on Twitter of a monster hidden buy wall on BFX @ $6300.  

I hope y’all are wearing a belt.  Maybe do it up a notch tighter just in case.


Edit:   I can see what looks to be a floor forming @ $6311.  This could be a whale call for an explosive short squeeze. I would target $6700.   

Roger is a PR face that Chinese miners need, plus he also has his own vested interest in it so it's a win/win combo for them. Is 1-5% of BTC a fall? Think BITMAIN can sustain that and continue to cater to outliers, and position themselves as a "hedge" to diversify into for idiots whenever BTC rallies. China has deep pockets maybe they decide to go with 1GB blocks and China will bank roll them, who knows

Come on bears. Keep piling on the margin shorts. I'm sure no bulls will notice those growing future buy orders stacking up.  

Yes.. you are so amazing.

Thanks for sharing. 

little by little wins the day, as some famous WO thread canadian might say.   

Just woke up and WOW what a brutal pump     

We already talk about bcash too much in this thread, including your stupid-ass repetitive bot posts.

The reason that you are having difficulty understanding or responding to complexity is because AI has not come along well enough for your to camouflage your bot-ness.

Scott Nations of CNBC teaches us how to short.  

As I write this the price is $6312.

That must mean that I am feeling better.

I had like a 24 hour stomache flu, and I was not really feeling like doing anything, including reading WO posts.

Has anyone ever caught a short term stomache flu from Calamari? 

I am thinking that it was the calamari, because I had a similar thing with calamari about 15 years ago.. .. at least this time was a bit less extreme, but I just felt down for about 24 hours.  I'm feeling better now.

Gambling versus investing is on a continuum, so of course, the more you learn, the more you can improve your strategies and even move more towards investing and away from gambling.

So even if you have better gambling tools, both your mindset and your approach can still be more inclined towards gambling rather than investing.

Furthermore, your use of the term "speculation" and attempting to lump everyone in the same category tends to show that you might not understand some of the nuances within the various approaches that are possible within bitcoin (long term and short term).

 In the end, the most that matters is that you customize your approach to your own situation, and surely it would be better to make money along the way, but sometimes it takes a bit of learning to make money in both the long term and in the short term (or perhaps sometimes be willing to take some losses in order to make longer term profits).  



My strategy does not generally involve attempting to predict the direction of BTC prices.  So, if the price goes up, I sell and if the price goes down I buy, and I don't generally attempt to predict or to change my strategy (except perhaps just a little bit of tweaking here and there) based on what I believe the price might do.


Yes.. HODL works well too, and dollar cost average accumulating of BTC too, and buying on the dips works, too.

Of course, there can be manipulation on all kinds of levels, and surely BIGGER miners or more long term prepared miners might engage in behaviors in order to attempt to push out the competition, including driving the price down lower and for longer.  In the end, it is only one of the factors, and some miners are going to be able to ride out the dip for longer and for lower than others, but in the end, the hash rate keeps going up with increases in difficulty.  No miners are giving up on bitcoin, but you are correct that some of them might not have positioned themselves as well as others in terms of the amount of capital that they have to float in order to keep their operations going and sometimes maybe having to cash out some bitcoins at times that are ones that they have not chosen.

Regarding bitmain specifically, we certainly do not know their internals, and there have been some folks who have been going through their possible IPO disclosures with a fine tooth comb and even trying to figure out whether or not they are going to be able to fool enough people into giving them money (if an IPO does take place). 

It is not exactly easy to make assessments about who are the miners and what are their financial situations or their ability to ride out this particular down wave; however, if a company such as Bitmain goes public then it seems that more of their assets would become publicly knowable - good strategy or not?  who knows? could play out in a variety of ways with the entrance of new competition too, and perhaps Bitmain may end up playing their cards wrongly which would allow some other entrants, too.



There are probably other ways to make efficiencies besides electricity costs, and also a question of being sufficiently capitalized (and even liquid) to be able to ride out possible short term losses.  Mining remains just one component that affects price and the games that are played (and manipulations as you mentioned) that might be in the wheel house of some of the players who are either BIGGER or who have positioned themselves well for riding out the wave.


If you believe that bitcoin incentives, including POW is broken, then you are likely looking at the wrong factors.  Each of the miners decide for themselves what they want to do, and even whether to go on their own or to join a pool.

Recall a lot of the misinformation that was spewed out there in 2016 regarding the halvening and the suggestions that BTC mining was going to die down.   That did not happen, and there was a bit of a delayed affect, but what happened was the most obvious, BTC prices went up and miners continued to mine on bitcoin.



You now that these are all factors, and there are many factors that push price, and it is not just about mining - even though that remains one of the factors.


I think that we cannot be attempting to place too much emphasis on one thing or another and trying to figure out the matter.  The incentives in bitcoin remain quite well designed to inspire mining and profits from rewards and/or fees, and the fact that the hash rate and difficulty continues to go up, even while the price corrects goes to show that miners are still expending resources to mine bitcoin and they are figuring out their own profits (even if they end up betting wrong and losing in the long run, we still get the benefit of their expending resources to mine bitcoin in the short run).



Each person, including miners, ponders his own market conditions and figures out a strategy that he believes will be profitable that in the case of miners would involve both speculation on BTC price but also figuring out ways to attempt to make his business most efficient and to be able to ride out the down wave.  I really don't think that it is fruitful to attempt to figure out the factors that are being weighed by others in order to recognize certain indicators about what we need to figure out for ourselves.

By the way, miners could go out of business because they took on too much risk and they miscalculated or they could go out of business because they have their own internal problems, such as manpower or business management issues, and those factors are going to vary from miner to miner and from pool to pool, including getting their hands on cycling good and powerful equipment and electricity costs, but they have a lot of ways to play their bets on mining and accumulating BTC and they may end up betting wrong and even some factors outside of their expectations happen with their operations and their ability to float the business through the down wave.



Yeah, but if there is momentum, then it can take a while to reverse the momentum.  Sure, we might continue considering that BTC has visited $6k for the last time, and we are returning up, but as long as the price remains in striking distance of $6k, there are going to be some bear whales who want to attempt to push the price down, and some real people (regular investors) might also wait on the sidelines because they are afraid to get in when they are not certain about whether the "bottom is really in this time". 

There remain some informational aspects whether miners or even the knowledge of whales regarding how many coins they can sell that are out of touch for some of us regular peeps to know, so we just have to do our best to attempt to figure out whether we might need to change our strategy from what we had been doing (considering our own liquidity situation, too). 

Yes but i believe Roger will fall before it happens, how quick he would have to gain more favours is lessening each day

It's a chance to corner BITCOIN market, i'm sure it won't be hard to find some companies to throw few millions/yr at it to keep it at 1-5% of BTC. Kinda like playing lottery on a corporate scale, chances are practically non existent but payoff is h'UUGE!

Anyone factor in what happens when btrash goes bust?

HODL, next question.

 

I know wouldn't it be 2x better if they held twice as much!? And 10x better if... That's how these things work right? A shame that they're running (ran?) out of BTC to sell in order to continue propping it up.

No no, it was gambling at the start. That was a couple of years ago. After that I started learning about the indicators, self taught how to read candle charts and so on. And yeah I lost money like an idiot and that was not fun because it was gambling. But now I enjoy making money because its speculation. I prefer to keep an eye on RSI( Outdated I know- but if used correctly, still a good indicator)

My favorite tool is stochastics combined with bollinger bands. Basically I wait for the outbreak while securing a stop loss limit. And once the outbreak is in, I keep a close eye on MACD and MFI as to the perfect selling point. Works like a charm most of the time. If you have any strategies to share I would appreciate it!

Fair enough that there is "speculation" involved, but there is a difference between gambling and investing and you seem to be very inclined towards the gambling side.

You can make a lot of money in bitcoin as long as you develop investment (rather than gambling) strategies that are likely to pay off quite well in the longer run 5 years plus (and maybe even less than that). 

We will be over the hourly ichimoku cloud at this point and at 8.5k It will officially be a bull run again. Come out of your dark caves the nightmare is almost over!