Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13194. (Read 26609678 times)

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.

 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

1.  Most ppl can't get their head round it. It needs too much experience and analysis. The market moves in waves : each wave sets up the preconditions for the next.

2.  That is the best simple advice.


and 3. See my post just above,  re keeping it simple.


edit :

I just realised that worth adding a note on contrarian logic, for those that dont know :

Bull markets climb a 'Wall of Worry'

Bear markets flow down a 'River of Hope'


Thus sentiment is a contrary indicator.  The majority of sentiment does not change overnight, and a lot of 'work' is need to be done by time and price, before the herd changes its mind.

I really cant make sense of any of this?
So what we are saying that in order for the price to rise it has to go down first?
Why?
What if more people get in to bitcoin? Is the price going to go down?
Whats wrong with as demand goes up so will the price and if supply goes up then the price will decline?
Sometimes when I read this stuff it makes my brain hurt! So many double,double, double negatives! In the end everybody tries to second guess what everybody else is doing that we all end up tripping over ourselves.
If you can afford to wait then just Buy and HODL. Its worked out fine so far.

/sarc off     ..    Agree  



In fact, responding to both your posts, I would say it's true that most ppl overthink this trading analysis... and they lose.

Just finding one or two very simple (seemingly over-simple) yet powerful drivers, and seeing price through those prisms, has a better chance of success.

I'm in.

Science. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

IMO BTC is headed for another rally, maybe from a lower level (perhaps 5k) which will reach around 7.5k by October and fail.  The subsequent fall may get to 4k, but in best case could get to 3k, in which case you could call it 'Mass Panic' , and the low could be 'in'.

The worse case would be another low around 4k followed by a rally to near 6k (by February ??) and a continued fall after that, with another year of bear market from here.

As far as Development and Adoption goes, that will continue whilst price falls, and even better when a more stable low level is reached.. Ironically, there is less proper development in a strong bull phase, because everyone is distracted by easy money.

I agree with your analysis. From what I see around many, many different sources ( offline as well as online), there is a majority of bullishness.

Lots of price rise forecasts, mostly predicated on hope alone. Lots of anger directed at bearish forecasts.

Unfortunately then, price is stiil flowing down the river of hope, and it could take a long time and a big decline to change that.

I wish it wasn't so.

That is the problem, its been false for so long, what's real

Transparency is key

Pretty hilarious too that litecoiners scoff at Bcash for the same reason, but don't know or realize that Chinese miners/exchanges are sitting on > 7M litecoin to restrict supply.... lol

I feel your sarcasm
Good point though. So if lot of people are saying that, is it necessarily false?  

I know this is a bitcoin thread, but please do your research before you state such nonsense.

- The transaction fees are still very reasonable for an always fully private transaction (<$0.30) + Monero will have 'Bulletproofs' in the September upgrade, reducing the transaction size with >80%.  

- The supply not being fixed is not a problem, it is a very deliberate awesome feature. It will be <1% yearly and percentage wise further decreasing over time (likely less than the amount of moneros lost per year in boating accidents). In exchange there will always be a miner incentive, thus not having to rely on a fee market like bitcoin does: this allows an adaptive blocksize!

Monero learned from the issues Bitcoin has. Don't be auto-dismissive, the thing we detest so much about no-bitcoiners.

Wow, so insightful, exactly what a lot of people have been saying

Mass panic selloff - despair - indifference - the time of low interest by general public, and active work by the core supporters -- then natural growth from inside, caused by the persistent work of real value creators, such as developers, adopters and promoters.
I believe before BTC can grow again, there should be new achievements to show, and more healthy community caring about fundamentals, not just price.
This is how I see normal way of resolving the consequences of the latest bubble.

I wonder how do you see the possible path? Do you really think BTC is ready for another rally in this situation now? Or you think it can go sideways long enough so new development matures and adoption kicks in?

There's doesn't need to be "mass panic". That's not a necessary requirement to determine whether the bottom has happened.

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.

The Monero and Bitcoin transaction fees are very close to each other. There is not practical difference, exept during the high volume times Bitcoin has had actually higher fees.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-transactionfees.html
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html

Also, the Transaction fees of Monero will be decresed even more by 80-90% by the bulletproofs.
https://ethereumworldnews.com/monero-bulletproof-protocol/
https://getmonero.org/2017/12/07/Monero-Compatible-Bulletproofs.html

In addition The Tari Project which is a second layer protocol for Monero, will cut the transaction fees to fractions by Lightning Networks. It will also bring Atomic Swaps, Internal assets and much more for Monero.
https://www.tari.com/

The "not fixed" supply is not a problem at all. There is a fixed tail emission for Miners to have an incentive to mine. And because the tail emission is fixed, the emission in relation to existing supply will be decreasing. Also, the tail emission will be very low. 0,6XMR per 2 minutes block. That is only 432XMR per a day.
https://getmonero.org/resources/moneropedia/tail-emission.html

Also, the Tari Protocol will be merge Mined with Monero.

PSA: exchanges will start to wobble at under 6k. 1 or 2 self-hacks must be expected at times like that. Get your money off the exchanges as soon as you have done your business. Do not 'invest' more than you can afford to lose.