This chart seems to suggest the bottom will be reached (around 70% lower from here = $1500) in mid 2019. That would not be good news.
I am inclined to agree with the timing, but I think (hope!) the price will not get below $2500
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13211. (Read 26610289 times)
August 09, 2018, 07:41:49 PM
This chart seems to suggest the bottom will be reached (around 70% lower from here = $1500) in mid 2019. That would not be good news.
I am inclined to agree with the timing, but I think (hope!) the price will not get below $2500
August 09, 2018, 07:37:17 PM
August 09, 2018, 07:05:52 PM
if you don't have a lambo .... than just sell the car that you do have and buy the same 6K bitcoins .... and buy it back with the same BTC dust
But if you did that in January you would still be hitchhiking today.
This is why the rich get richer, they can hold during bear markets.
What I need to do is get off my lazy butt and work again. For (devalued) bitcoins. But if you did that in January you would still be hitchhiking today.
This is why the rich get richer, they can hold during bear markets.
August 09, 2018, 07:03:21 PM
Bitcoin back to where it was 27 days back:
What a waste of time.
Sheeit.
Aug 7th 2017 $3,638.38 usd seems the last year was but a 'dream' but still better ....not sure what to think....currently $6,335.00 usd btc.
My view is NOW it will bounce below 5K in that even big miners (data halls) can't pow scrypt mine ANY crypto BTC or whatever at these prices and not be at a loss....thus
they have bankers to pay etc. So I expect a big dump of btc and crypto. Or at least what I've been told by a couple of owners of such.
The choice is pay off the debts/banks and any loans with crypto. If it all goes tulips and the folk pull their contracts for miners or you are under water..you at least salvage the building
and shut your stuff off (hopefully for now). I'm talking 200 -500 unit data halls. Hell, I doubt bitmain is even making $$$ at these prices over costs...at least for their stuff in the states.
so, with those folk, in HODL mode, due to revenue and that revenue goes away as folk shut down....again gonna be ugly yet I think
brad
OH MY FUCKING GOD.
Lots of doom and glom on the way. Shit. Holy shit.
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/08/fud-fueled-crypto-market-dumps-25-billion-in-24-hours/
We're 9.5% down in 24 hours?! Is that how much we fell? REALLY?!
We're 9.5% down in 24 hours?! Is that how much we fell? REALLY?!
Quote
Once again traders and hodlers have been suckered into the FUD frenzy and are selling out of crypto. It was hardly as if this decision wasn’t expected and nothing else has really changed in the ecosystem. Total market capitalization has plunged 9.5% on the day resulting in a loss of almost $25 billion. They are currently at their lowest point in 2018 which is just over $231 billion and the bear market is still in full effect.
Aren't you able to do your own math and assessment too? Is 24 hours an important measurement? Don't we need to look at both the UPs and the DOWNs and the context before we get worked up about whether 24 hours was a 7% or a 9% or a 20% drop?
Furthermore, if we are attempting to time a little bit short term, then context becomes even more important to determine whether and how much we buy (or sell - which would be dumb) now or wait for the next price move before taking some kind of buy/sell action.
Of course, my own portfolio has been in a dominantly buying situation since the price rise to $8,500 with my first buys occurring around $8k and so far down to $6,300 with my next buys set for a bit above $6k... So if we look at the local top, and perhaps I am helping you out too much, then we might see shorter term significance coming from the period in which we came down from $8,500 to nearly $6,100, which is approaching a 30% drop - well 28.2% to be more specific.
Anyhow, part of my point remains that any attempt to quibble with numbers provided by someone else (whether in an article or in a post) is to consider the context in which the numbers are presented and attempt to determine if that context is very relevant or if a different context would be more relevant (especially for your own considerations about either what to do or how to perceive the situation).
you are correct if BTC survives in the future...myself, I see it as going down more, with miners and data halls (big guys) now feeling the pinch. Sell some coin, keep the building/etc as a hedge, seems to be the game
now. Can't count on income and thus that would keep the banker at bay. But ugly. If BTC and crypto is not FUD'ed to death after all this, again IMHO, no ETF will be allowed with the price dump of from 18,000 usd to
now $6,358 or using these figures a dump of 64% from the bubble..in less than a year. They will use the too volatile argument and pass on all ETF's IMHO, well into 2020. This likely is the reason for the dump in price
people have lost all hope on ETF's.
So that is the choice indeed. Believe in BTC and crypto and ride it out with 1) what you have 2) with what you have and add to the stash 3) bail and sell
But, the lower the price the more the 'powers that be" gov't/regulation and just plain pushback from big money....the more likely we will lose even more ground ..under 5k IMHO.
So thems the breaks/ and bets now, the above 3 choices...crypto poker as it were....1) HODL 2) raise 3) fold.
A bit too pessimistic, but certainly an accurate depiction of some of the underlying dynamics, yet I still think that there is something about the alt coin dynamics too that is affecting this whole "shaking out" situation that you did not mention in your above post. Could partly be an alt coin shake out, too, no?
I simply think that the ETF's will be 'strung out' over the next 2 years at best..before they come to fruitaion....
thus it is gonna be like 2014-2016 IMHO. A long 'slog'. There is NO reason for any bureaucrat to make an ETF under the present circumstances, with a 64% drop in value.
I HOPE it bounces back up to 6k from the above and stays there ...but again....the new window IMHO is gonna be 4k to 6k w/o any meaningful movement by institutional money
and no ETF ...no institutional money...no pump in price...so it really, really is a good time to 'buy' or it is just gonna meander sideways for 2 years.
Bitcoin has been there before and likely has returned.
Another point, I'm not entirely sure of ...I myself suspect sometime within the next 1-2 years a pretty major recesson..from my USA point of view...so the question becomes....is bitcoin and crypto
prices kept up by 'discretionary spending' ie people have extra cash..thus it goes into crypto and BTC? or will BTC act as a store of value in such a recession.. Again, myself I see this 'supposed'
recession my part as being around a 40% or more correction. (the normal view of a recession is a 20% pull back)
lots of crap ...being juggled...but just can't see any new money coming in, until more sensible regulation of some kind and/or ETF's ..I'd love to be wrong...but what I'm thinking
I'll likely HODL my BTC etc and burn my ALT's on the retirement...but, again...perhaps people should buy like hell, because even if it is a long haul to the next wave or crypto price rises and I'm 'supposedly'
correct....nothing is gonna happen till gov't and big money are comfortable...and again, they are not very damn comfortable without an ETF and with the 64% drop from the ATH of around 18k or so.
What I'm steeling myself for, in HODL mode anyway...As usual, like the rest of you, I really hope I'm full of shit...but damn if this does not seem to me like 2014-2016 with BTC and crypto.
brad
I cannot really disagree with anything that you are saying, but even given a lot of the various factors you point out, aren't you seeming to give a bit too much credit that anyone actually knows or anyone actually has a strong ability to keep bitcoin down.
Perhaps you and I really do not disagree about anything, but instead we are merely quibbling a bit about the ways in which we differently express what we are attempting to say.
For example, I cannot really disagree with you about manipulation going on and the fact that there are powers that be (PTB) forces and whales who attempt to manipulate the price down and have goals to manipulate the price down. However, sometimes there just comes momentum that is to difficult for them to keep down, and I think that we frequently witness this in bitcoin.
Recent examples seem to be the powers that be, and bear whales would have loved to have kept bitcoin below $500 in early 2016 and even attempted again in late 2016 to push the price below $500, but they were not successful, and there was a certain loss of control that came with their inability to get the price to go below $500... similarly dynamics were in place to keep the price below $3k and seeming again a kind of battle to keep the prices below $10k... but these battles are going to be lost.. it is just a matter of when, and we cannot really know exactly how the price movements are going to play out and even their ability to take advantage of momentum and get some weaker hands to get shooken from their coins.
I guess my main point remains that loss of ability to keep the price down can happen at various unexpected points, and it may not even require 1 or 2 years to play out, but it is also reasonable that it could take some time to play out before there is another loss of control of the bearwhales and the powers that be... we cannot always make any kind of meaningful assessment until a bit after such loss of control has happened (and surely we can also have a sense that it is happening or that it has already happened, but we cannot always be sure about that, either, until looking at the matter much further down the road), so in that sense it can be quite difficult to make meaningful calls while we are in the process, even while each of us has differences in hunches based on our own life experiences, knowledge and even our emphasis (or deemphasis) of the importance of the relevancy of certain factors.
August 09, 2018, 06:39:51 PM
I think that your memes made your point pretty well, even though I disagree with the concept of shorting bitcoin, especially after it already experienced nearly a 30% dip within about 2 weeks. It neither seems to be a good personal strategy nor good for bitcoin... yet I understand that personal strategy might be the only one that matters to a lot of people who just want to make money, but even on that basis, it seems a bit of a gamble to bet on DOWN after a relatively fast correction.
On the other hand, if someone had been betting on DOWN when the price went up 30% in almost the same amount of time, that would have seemed to like a more practical and realistic bet (even though I personally don't engage in any kind of margin trading of bitcoin).
We don't disagree about the likelihood that bitcoin is going up in the long term. I am just quibbling with any suggestions that it would be a good idea to short (or even sell bitcoin) after it has already made a nearly 30% correction. Such play might work, but the odds for success do not seem great.
Why ever see btc Going from 6200 to 8000 and sell.... only super fools would sell ..... to gain what ?
And @ what risk or am i wrong ?
There are a few categories of people who engage in that kind of conduct or advocate doing that 1) price manipulators, 2) people who are emotional and likely ill-informed about their investment, 3) people who like to gamble, 4) rare people who have some kind of insider information and 5) there might be some other categories that I am not considering, at the moment.
August 09, 2018, 06:37:08 PM
August 09, 2018, 05:51:37 PM
Where is V8 when you need him?
sorry busy studying bitcoin. it's quite the rabbit hole
Sounds suspiciously off topic... Are you feeling ok? What's bitcoin anyway?
August 09, 2018, 05:49:02 PM
OK, I was not hoping for less of a Walmart version, more of a... Harrod's version
Apologies to our homo brothers... I see no point in apologising to the ladies here - we probably scared them off years ago.
Apologies to our homo brothers... I see no point in apologising to the ladies here - we probably scared them off years ago.
August 09, 2018, 05:47:42 PM
CBOE RESPONDS: After Delay Is Announced, Sources Confirm Continued Bitcoin ETF Confidence
https://theicojournal.com/cboe-responds-after-delay-is-announced-sources-confirm-continued-bitcoin-etf-confidence/
If you knew an approval were imminent, and you had the means, wouldn't you strive to drive the price down as much as possible in the months preceding?
What effect might an ETF approval have on Bitcoin dominance? Legitimize the entire asset class or single out Bitcoin?
One coin to rule them all, one coin to find them,
One coin to bring them all and in the darkness bind them?
It's a shame this arcane ETF approval process has basically throttled speculation, but it has done wonders for separating innovation from chaff.
What might a post-ETF world look like?
https://theicojournal.com/cboe-responds-after-delay-is-announced-sources-confirm-continued-bitcoin-etf-confidence/
Quote from: CBOE Source
“Expected and the markets are acting irrationally to the announcement. Every single submission like this has gotten a delay. Again, expected. Still expect approval. 99% expectation. Print it, but as always, don’t use my name. ”
”Quote from: Van Eck Source
“Our team expected this delay, almost to the hour, and has been an expectation in our planning process. We won’t say when we expect an approval, but there has been specific speculation that we actually agree with and have incorporated into our timeline. We are in no way surprised by this. Most importantly, we believe our submission is the strongest yet to be put in front of US regulators, and believe that strength will be rewarded.”
Quote from: Recent SEC employee
“The four people I still talk to on the daily at the SEC are basically telling me this ‘it is going to get approved but we are going to make the markets understand that we dug really, really deep i.e. investor protection/transparency’. And that makes sense. The vast majority of the public still has no idea what ‘digital assets’ are or what it means. So when you do an approval like this, and the successive approvals that will follow in this asset class – think of the 3-5 year return number that will be associated with this market? And maybe that is the key to the Van Eck SolidX approval? It is set up as an accredited investor vehicle. That singular element is probably what gives so many of us a firm belief in its approval. And it is a stroke of genius by the Van Eck SolidX group.”
If you knew an approval were imminent, and you had the means, wouldn't you strive to drive the price down as much as possible in the months preceding?
What effect might an ETF approval have on Bitcoin dominance? Legitimize the entire asset class or single out Bitcoin?
One coin to rule them all, one coin to find them,
One coin to bring them all and in the darkness bind them?
It's a shame this arcane ETF approval process has basically throttled speculation, but it has done wonders for separating innovation from chaff.
What might a post-ETF world look like?
WEB 3.0 decentralization, the more it is used the more you dilute the centralization of everything
so many currencies, so many choices,
and bitcoin can regulate them all RSK
August 09, 2018, 05:46:47 PM
Where is V8 when you need him?
sorry busy studying bitcoin. it's quite the rabbit hole
August 09, 2018, 05:39:59 PM
Well, I guess in a bear market like this it's about all I could expect.
Blah blah... this thread isn't what it used to be... a double bottom used to be a thing... blah blah...
I think I will get my coat.
Blah blah... this thread isn't what it used to be... a double bottom used to be a thing... blah blah...
I think I will get my coat.
August 09, 2018, 05:30:54 PM
August 09, 2018, 05:15:56 PM
double bottom pics please
well... we're waiting.
Where is V8 when you need him?
August 09, 2018, 04:44:56 PM
Pump incoming?
Yup, it's here... bulls are trying to take the control back from bears.
I'm no chart expert but I've followed this thread long enough to know that a double bottom is a good thing.
So...
double bottom pics please
So...
double bottom pics please
That does look like a double bottom (specially if it continues to go upwards for another little while). However, one-month is a little bit too little time-frame for a double bottom, something like this generally gives the idea of short-term bounce and it shouldn't be taken into view when you're planning long-term.
Okay then, next two pages of this thread are gonna be total rubbish.
August 09, 2018, 04:33:15 PM
Last $5k buying opportunity coming in the next month.
Not long after will be the last 4 digit buy opportunity.
Not long after will be the last 4 digit buy opportunity.
Shame not gonna happen for many WEX customers, so many waiting for a pump
I suppose all they can do is hunt
go the bitcoin
August 09, 2018, 04:23:42 PM
I'm no chart expert but I've followed this thread long enough to know that a double bottom is a good thing.
So...
double bottom pics please
So...
double bottom pics please
August 09, 2018, 04:22:05 PM
glimmers?
August 09, 2018, 02:10:16 PM
August 09, 2018, 01:06:21 PM
Pump incoming?
August 09, 2018, 01:03:18 PM
Last $5k buying opportunity coming in the next month.
Not long after will be the last 4 digit buy opportunity.
Not long after will be the last 4 digit buy opportunity.
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