Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13245. (Read 26644501 times)

Hey... anything is possible.


I was thinking something more in the territory of a drop from $120k to $18k... ... but I don't have any kind of exact foundation either.

Before this long correction (our current correction) I was thinking that our current blow off top would have taken us into the $30k to $50k range, and then at that point, I would have considered a 85% or more correction over a few years to be perfectly reasonable  (so a drop to somewhere between $4k and $7,500 after going into the $30-$50k price range.. but that is not our scenario, no more.. because we already had a 70% price correction).

$20k just seems like too much in the middle.. so to me, just does not seem to be like a sufficiently eggregious "blow off top."

The highest growth comes from the smallest entities, true in business and very likely the best target for Bitcoin itself.    Thats why the high fees thing was really not good for the underlying prospects of BTC and the high price at that time so ironic.   
Markets move in mysterious ways, as BTC improved this year and developed better operation we see the lower price but thats how it goes with speculation.

 Price is sideways and good prospect of upwards till 7200 maybe 7320 before some challenge I reckon, minor movements

You are hardly convincing.

How could you be in a position to be making "decent profits" at any point in time if you are continuously  spewing bear scenarios?

If you attempt to live anywhere near your prophecies, then you are not going to have very much of your possible investment capital in bitcoin.  Therefore you are quite likely to be way under invested into bitcoin during times in which the exponential price increases take place.

As the old saying goes, "you gotta be in it to win it" and bitcoin has a relatively low number of real bull days during any particular calendar year.. even during bull years... so if you are nearly always preaching the bear scenario, then you are likely going to largely miss out on those bull days, when they do occur.

That's just liquid wealth (typically consisting of liquid assets not including main house equity) pyramid without taking income into consideration.
Source for the latest:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/articles/news-and-expertise/global-wealth-pyramid-decreased-base-201801.html

Me too  and if my girlfriend behave well she can come too 

I am not sure if I understand the pyramid.

The way that I see it is that there is actual accumulated wealth and there is annual income.

Of course, if you accumulate more wealth then the accumulated wealth can provide a higher income, otherwise you are dependent upon others for providing your annual income.

Also, the more that you are able to live on resources that are below your annual income, then the more that you will be able to accumulate wealth and to therefore aspire to accumulate enough wealth in order to be able to have your assets support your lifestyle (and likely retaining some additional cushion, too).

The pyramid does not seem to be complete, and it seems to be depicting accumulated wealth without juxtaposing that with annual income, right?  Or am I missing something?

I'm in

You are misreading the sentence, yefi.

somac is saying that the price went from $20 to $266 and then to $7k 5 years later - even though you could read the sentence another way to say that bitcoin went to $20 not long after it was at $266 - but that second reading is not what somac is saying.

Hm?  Maybe that is why we are so bullish about bitcoin?  It's a mirage.         

Personally, I accept that anyone who is in decent profits at $7k and perhaps bought under $1k would have the freedom to sell parts of his/her stash at any time.  Would have been better to sell at higher profits, but there is some flexibility there.

On the other hand, anyone who got into bitcoin after December 2017, might be a lot more distracted into the get rich quick scheme that is not coming out as plan.

Practically those folks should be HODLing through and having a plan to buy more coins as the price goes down (and if the price goes down).  There are ways to plan it out in a kind of systematic way to be able to ride out the wave and accumulate more coins and not to sell for lower than your purchase costs (plus fees and expenses).
 

You are correct that we are likely to continue to see a similar pattern into the future, and amazingly, we still seem to have well below 1% of world adoption into bitcoin.... whoaza!!!


2-3 years is a decently low period of time to wait for any investment (even though it can seem like a long time while you are going through it).   Actually there are some tech bubble stocks from the early 2000s that took more than 15 years to recover... wow...



Surely decent odds, and surely nothing is guaranteed.. however, I understand that your certainty comes from the fact that there are really decent odds of such price rise happening, and given the last several exponential price curves, it is starting to seem as if $50k would be conservative.

Even though I also have decent certainty of another price rise, my approach remains fairly conservative, and I remain happy with our current price, or even going up slightly from here.  And, even $20k would be quite amazing for an appreciation of my already good lifestyle with current prices.  I do understand that some folks who bought in at higher prices cannot live so sanguinely, but like you said, the odds seem pretty favorable to continue to invest into bitcoin (at least don't be leveraging or taking your living expenses and invest only what you can afford to lose, and you will still be doing pretty great with bitcoin outperforming a large majority of any other place that you could put your extra money.  Oh, by the way, there is nothing wrong with living and eating kind of frugal during a relatively short investment period of 3-5 years, and in bitcoin (and some other investments) that can be considered delayed gratification that is likely to pay off handsomely down the road as long as you don't get too excited to cash out grandly and way too early). 

Can you make it accessible only by helicopter? I'm sure there are some nice spots here in Colorado where you can make it a fabulous glamping trip. Or you could do it either early 2022 or late 2022 and make it a fantastic ski holiday.

I will take the 85% drop from 250k to 37.5k like a man. No whining, I promise!

I don't understand what joy can be gotten by a bull to go through additional downward price movement after we already experienced 70% downward BTC price correction from $19,666 to $5,777?  The only way that it could be pleasurable to experience more correction is if you sold some already in preparation for the downward or you short... otherwise it is a bit torturous to watch the price go down.

I am not against considering that the BTC price could go down another 50% or more from our current price to bring our current BTC price correction over 85% from the top, but it is not necessary this time around.  Not only is such an extreme price correction not necessary, the current market may not be ready for such additional correction - despite the many bear proclamations that may merely be attempting to shake you from your coins. 

We can experience our 85% and greater correction at a later date.  There is no problem with that, and no reason that such further and additional correction might not take place at a later date.

Maybe Microsoft will get into a partnership with John McAfee and create a brainwallet app for Windows. It will use the same password to generate your private keys that you use to log into Microsoft. They will make sure to make it more secure by sending you an email to the same account, with a code, so that you can sign your transactions.   Then, when you try to use any other wallet app besides Microsoft's groovy brainwallet,(including your hardware wallet), it will pop up a notice to upgrade. Until you have the time to figure out how to shut off the notice.  

everyone is drawing lines on charts and sooner or later some will be right and be hero's of the moment ..... and will be totally wrong on the next line drawings they make   

let me just HODL and when there are oppertunitie's increase the BTC stack size , nothing more nothing less

offcourse be involved in a few shit coins but thats a part of the game 

prognostications with such certainty is becoming more and more bold... scaring away all the hodlers into our cupboards... 

Even if you show similar lines on charts, that does not mean similar things are going to happen.  Amirite?  Amirite?

Granted, Microsoft has been able to "embrace and extend" (corrupt) several things in the past, but I think this time is different. It's not bloated/dangerous HTML mail, or an inferior browser, or a nosy operating system. It's something that looks very much like money. The user's own money. As long as bitcoin works as money, the users will be able to see through all the corporate nonsense - in the worst case, via some smarter friend's eyes.

- So you can't spend your Starbucks bitcoins at Amazon? Ah, it's your Microsoft wallet that won't let you. You know, I always instantly redeem all my credit through my own LN node, directly connected to Starbucks. Not my keys, not my money, that's what the geeks taught me...

How long before this awareness invades mainstream channels such as Facebook, and everyone and their dogs can see the light? How long can such a scam survive? The hypothetic MS/Starbucks/whatever cartel had better compete by adding real value to their service, like an advantage on exchange rate for funds kept/spent with them, or some kind of fidelity bonus for people who comply with their centralized agenda. That's why I think they could ultimately help more than hinder.

Go on then, you fill in the blanks.  have your best guess.

So, the basic question again : Is BTC in an uptrend or a downtrend ?

Answer is simple :  Medium term (year or two) Downtrend  

Longterm  : Uptrend.  Support line here (open to interpretation) is around $2-3k


Trends *always* continue until the relevant support/resistance line is broken .


Probably any other analysis becomes over-complicated, unless you want to trade frequently, which is usually a sure way to lose.