Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1326. (Read 26729019 times)

"in"? A strange remainder...how it got there?  

On a more 'serious' note.

The universe inflated in a fraction of a second, then expanded more slowly.
Bitcoin had a hot inflation phase until maybe 2017.
Now, it is in a slowly expanding phase.

I am sorry, but drip-dripping at some small $ value per month will not make you rich if you start now, but it would, hopefully, preserve or even enhance your savings among the sea of inflationary fiat systems. That's the ticket.

Of course, some oil sheik can drop a couple of bil in bitcoin any time and make a positive disturbance or, conversely, MtGox or US Gov can sell a large chunk and cause the opposite move.

I compared a "wimpy" investor choices with an "aggressive" one because both of them have had OTHER possibilities to invest, even among the mainstream investment vehicles.
You cannot just say that someone was wimpy because he/she bought bitcoin once and allocated less because you don't know what else they have done.
For the sake of the argument, they might have outperformed the "aggressive" bitcoin investor as i have shown in at least two common stock occasions during the last 10 years (NVDA and MSFT; AAPL was essentially even).

That is an interesting and even fair counter-proposal for such a bet, and it does bring out the idea of "are you bearish?" or "are you bullish?" perspective and even to add a bit of a need persistency below $40k rather than a kind of transitory touching upon sub $40k.  

I would assess that so far, we have had 5 days in 2024 that have gone below $40k, so if there were to be 45 more days, then you (Dude) would lose such bet as you proposed.  I like it.  

I think that it is not obviously a bet in your favor, but personally, I would take your side of the bet, while at the same time, there are going to be some more bearish (or downside-inclined) folks who would be willing to take the other side of that kind of a bet.

And, then on the question of size of such bet, you personally, would not be opposed to the proposed bet quantity of 0.1 BTC?  I personally think that it is too much, but I can see where some folks would reasonably differ on that part of it, yet I am still thinking that personally in these times, I would not bet more than 0.001BTC in most of the forum situations, but it could be possible to convince me to go a wee bit higher if there were the right kind of circumstances or if there might be the combinining of sub-bets.... ..


To me it seems that it is not really "inflation," but instead, it is the debasement of the dollar (and other fiat currencies) that is creating influences upon bitcoin.


The author of your cited article is describing bitcoin as a solution.. not anyone who is pushing the US economy or whatever other vague reference that you are making to possible government statements.


I don't know.  We had a rise in bitcoin's price from sub $10k levels relative to various dollar-related prices that largely started in around July 2020 and went into 2021, and even the correction back down to $15,479 did not cause bitcoin prices to go back down to the pre-July 2020 levels.. if we might consider a jumping off point to be around $10k.. and even when we are currently going up since November 2022.. we are experiencing ups and downs, but still, even if we might consider our lowest point of $15,479 as our jumping of point, we have another 3x increase in the BTC prices, and I doubt that BTC is even unstable at these prices, even though we are currently right around 38% above the 200-WMA.


For sure, we need guys like this and it would be interesting to see if they would be willing to take the other side of the Dude's bet, and in the meantime, I hope that they do believe in the power of shorts because that would actually be putting their money where their mouth is, but I doubt those kinds of dweebs are even shorting, but instead trying to get others to short. .and good luck with that,^** they are going to need it.

**By the way, I don't really mean "good luck" to anyone shorting or selling bitcoin at these prices, and I surely would prefer that those kinds of folks either get reckt or at least experience a decently sized loss in their funds do to their betting against my lil precious in times like these.


Regarding the first part of the above-cited article:
It is difficult to assess current BTC price dynamics as anything but bullish, even if we have been experiencing some slowing down of the overall upward momentum and upward trend.. and so folks who are failing/refusing to accumulate bitcoin may well be wishing that they had been.. especially the low coiners and no coiners.  

Those of us who have coins on the other hand or who are stacking as best as we can, are likely going to be in a better position as long as we are mostly holding onto our coins.. and surely I have a system that I buy on the way down and sell on the way up so I don't really change any of my behaviors, and even within my system, I can tweak it a bit in order to lean more towards buying more than I am selling, which largely has been my own situation since June of 2023.. but part of my own bias comes from my having had suffered a bit of a windfall in cash that might be partly to blame for my mostly accumulating bias in the last 7-ish months.

Maybe I was a bit more neutral in the earlier part of 2023, and I surely I was also forced into a bit of extra accumulation in the second half of 2022 that might have gone a bit into the earlier part of 2023, so maybe right before my June 2023 cash windfall accident I was more starting to border on neutral, but then got pushed into an accumulating bias.. and maybe based on my latest changes in my buy/sell orders I am getting a wee bit back to bordering on neutral again.

Regarding the article's pointing out of the drop below $39k:
That is hardly even interesting.  We might call it a 21% correction so far after right around an 81% increase in price, if we use $27k-ish (from October) as our jumping off point.. so who gives any ratts' asses about an early December parallel in prices.

Regarding several analysts proclaiming that BTC prices could drop to lower $30ks.

Yes.. of course.. could is always part of any assessment, but still hardly interesting, even though we always have folks selling on the way down and planning to buy back lower.. and that does NOT always work out as well as it had been hoped.


It is difficult to say how long it might take to get out of the don't wake me up zone ($35k-$55k).. and I suppose that I am cheating to consider such zone to have decently large parameters. but it is not like I am just making this shit up.. king daddy seems to have had put itself into such a posture based on it's bouncing out of the old "don't wake me up zone" of $25k to $35k, and so once we had gotten convincingly into the $40ks, it seems that we had entered into a new "don't wake me up zone" that just happened to have broader parameters.

43K in one hour blatantly

Explanation
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hello gentlemen...i hope your enjoying your weekend
challenging span A s/r on the daily @42073
have a pleasant caturday night!

dyor

4h


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stronghands

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You seem to be getting away from the hypothetical because there are all kinds of investments that whimpy investor could have had done besides bitcoin, and if you just happen to pick some that out performed bitcoin, then you are not really engaging with the hypothetical.  

We are not talking about a bunch of various possible investments in this thread besides talking about the dollar versus bitcoin trade... or maybe we could talk about various averages like average stocks, bonds, properties or commodities, but that also seems like a distraction, because generally bitcoin has outperformed all of those by a long shot, yet if you focus on some specific stock or some specific property, there may well be cases in which BTC did not outperform the comparative, as you selectively picked out some possible stocks that an investor in this thread may or may not have had been able to get into, during the whole time that bitocin was available.. whether lump summing, buying on dips or DCA investing.



I think that we are trying to talk about situations that regular investors (or normies) might have gotten themselves into in 2013/2014 rather than just making up a bunch of after the fact scenarios.  One BIG Lump sum would have outperformed various forms of DCA and smaller lump sums that were spread out, especially if the one BIG lump sum is picked at a time in which the BTC price was regularly low, but hardly any of us talk about lump sum because it does not tend to be as practical for many folks, even if a person might have a $1 million portfolio, if he is aiming to get 10% into bitcoin (which would be $100k), he might not want to pull it all out of one of his already existing assets in one go, but he might still be able to be somewhat aggressive and get into his new investment allocation in several chunks that might be take 6 to 12 months to execute...

...but sure there might be some occasions, in which the guy with the relatively decently-sized investment portfolio might be in a situation in which he feels that he has to liquidate one or another asset, so he is in a position to lump sum into some kind of investment(s).. so even though those kinds of situations can happen, they are not usual, especially for normies... and I would presume that we would be in a thread that is attempting to appeal to a broader segment of the population rather than more well-to-do folks who are less typical and who may even be more financially sophisticated.

I, personally, am a bit leary of lump sum investment that does not at least attempt to do some preparations for either buying on dips or even some DCA that might be especially applicable if the BTC price had moved against the person.... so let's say for example, the lump summer had held off investing into bitcoin through the whole of late 2013 and through most of 2014, but when the BTC prices started to reach the lower to mid-$400s in late 2014, he could not resist anymore, and so he did his lump sum into bitcoin at that time, but then we know what happened in 2015, is that the BTC price dipped down to about $155.. but at the same time it got stuck in the mid-200s for most of 2015, so there may have had been some utility to be able to buy more during late 2014 and through most of 2015, and there can be many examples of such.. so maybe the guy had around $100k that he could invest at $450, which would have gotten him around 222 BTC, but then instead of investing all of it, maybe he invests 1/2 or 3/4s and then saves the other portion for the possibility of buying on dips and/or DCA in the event that the BTC price moved against him.  Guys are going to come to differing decisions regarding how to play such matters and how much to hold in reserves versus how much to invest right away.


I personally am not looking forward to cashing out large portions of my stash, and I think that part of the point of my earlier response is that if any of us might have started to buy at or near the earlier top and then maybe even bought through the top, then it can take a while to either get into profits or to start to feel that you are not spending so much time in the red.. but then another advantage of holding over a decently long period of time is the power of compounding and the ability to have options.. so the 200-week moving average has moved up plenty in the last 2.5 cycles, and it has even moved up quite bit since mid-2017.. so there should be some confidence, and I would not see any reason to cash out large amounts, even if the BTC price does end up hitting $100k or higher prices this year or next year.

Hopefully you have some kind of plan that goes beyond mere thoughts of withdrawing large portions of your cornz when there likely are not any better places to keep you value... unless you are at or near the end of your life.

Explanation
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Let’s not.

Bitcoin price is 42k. 

Explanation
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Thanks for sharing the calculations. Pakistan is agriculture country that's why prices of agriculture related products lower here but as you wrote they must be seen from purchasing power parity.
On same ground, during my visit to Saudia Arabia last year I found eatable products expensive their when I compare them with prices in Pakistan. People who live and earn in Saudia Rayal don't find things as much expensive as visitors find them.


As Biodom calculated, there is not much difference in Potato price between Pakistan and USA.
I loved baked potato too. I have to cut down my potato consumption to almost zero since I was diagnosed with Diabetics 

I would think the mtgox coins would push the market down at least that low, but the markets dive since the latest news that they’re getting close to BTC distributions didn’t last long or go very deep. I hope there’s still some big money on the sidelines to scoop up those gox coins or there could be some pain coming.

Or not...it's not like you are guaranteeing 37K, or do you?

Explanation
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Let's see what happens under $ 37K.

$ 34K would liquidate and stoploss many traders so it seems likely we'll go there in the short term.

Explanation
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X

The good news is that Grayscale outflows are slowing down. The bad is that the net balance is negative 4 days in a row (although we don't know iShares inflows for 26th). More importantly, 18K bitcoins have beed added to the total of 637K BTC (to all companies inc. Grayscale), compared to the start of the ETF's when Grayscale had 619K BTC. This is for 2 weeks. In comparison, after the halving 450x14=6300BTC will be removed in sell pressure each 2 weeks.  Of course, there are no guarantees that this trend will be kept for long, especially once the price starts to climb up. But if it is kept long enough, then the supply shock will be spectacular.  

Explanation
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 Those are really cheap potatoes!
Best I can find here this week is $2.96 for a 10lb bag of Russet potatoes.  I only like those baked over coals in foil wrap though so I don't usually get them this time of year.