Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13881. (Read 26723750 times)

I think scenario 2 can only last until the people who bought-in early have sold their volume. The demand is increasing faster than the supply so scenario 2 seems highly-unlikely.

Very stressed here because I am buying large (0.8btc) amounts above market price.

It's too early to panic or decide either way toxic, because what we are seeing at the moment is no more than a reasonable correction on the weekly chart that's been expected for a while since we've been going up more or less non-stop (on the weekly) from 6500 to nearly 10k.

I see 2 possible scenarios playing out here.

We've now retraced around 50% of that recovery and the weekly RSI is starting to approach the oversold region (7% to go conventionally). So it could either recover somewhere in the 7k to 8k area and we'd be ok to continue a healthy growth (scenario 1) - or it could continue straight down to the main support level at 6500. In the latter case the pattern would seriously start to look like scenario 2, i.e. a descending triangle pattern hammering onto that 6500 support. If it breaks it then we're looking at the next support levels being 5800 and 4500.

(The two graphics below are exactly the same chart just looked at 2 different ways).

The bottom chart is painted slightly more bearish than it is in reality. The triangles actually have slightly ascending bottoms which indicates a reluctance to penetrate that support. Looks more like consecutive retests to me. Lets see what it does from here.

Basically, you cant dig tunnels that only hit the highest grade ore and then go back later and dig new tunnels that only hit the more marginal ores because engineers have to plan how to build a construct a mine. As an analogy, imagine if you build a sky scraper and then go to your architect after it's all said and done and say "I want to add 5000 additional square feet to the 32nd floor", that would be crazy, if you wanted 5000 additional feet it would need to be incorporated into the design before the building was built. It's not an adhock go where every you want at any given time sort of thing.

R0ach? That you under there?

Yes, I have been wrong at a couple key times in the past. Once recently when i predicted a change in price for March 5 2018, and again in February 2017. Prior to that I had some good buying predictions September 27, 2015  and again for September 25 2016


Like I said before, I am correct about 53% of the time. Bitcoin does what it wants. TA only shows the past, and will give the analyst only educated guesses of the future.

That chart is just a paste from 2014-2015, I annexed zeros to the numbers and changed 2015 to 2019. Bitcoin works in ~4 year periods all centered around the halvening.

it would be weird if someone would be lucky out of 50 people throwing their predictions
I think long term predictions are all....well you cant predict some very bad news and then its behaviour on bitcoin.

You scared me a bit 1st lol. But i see you overshoot by a mile (lower) already in start of may
dude dont scare me like this

BitMex resurrection in 10 mins

Well everything is going to shitter again

This follows the same level of thinking I have here. If i post anything about Bitcoin not going up or sideways-- These people here shit on me. Note the dates I posted in this post. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.33563137

Edit: Here is the post of JJG quoting it, just so you know I didn't change it after the fact.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.33569831

Good evening Bitcoinland. My condolences.

Please stop quoting that ass-hat. You won't be changing his mind on any subject related to Bitcoin. (No one has in the last 5+ years)

If you seek to have a conversation with him, do it privately.

Thanks

Umm... why?

Thanks for the charts, Toxic. I am less pessimistic due to the course of events since the recent market peak. Too much bullishness from my perspective to go down to $3,xxx but for the same reason, this could also mean that your scenario will materialise. I would say: the better. The more pain, the more impressive the ensuing rally. Since I take the long view, I am by no means fazed or offended by a bearish point of view.

Yes.  I hope some of Her Majesty's people take a gander at it.

Great read

I am pretty much in the same boat as you. I also started to collect last year in May/June which was way before the $20k pump but obviously I didn't buy enough. I became serious after this February...

You should know however, being serious this time won't guarantee you another 10x pump. Well it will happen eventually but might not happen in the time frame you are (we are) expecting. Most people here expect another 10x in the next 2 years which might be too optimistic.

We may have to wait at least 5 years to get our lambo's and I am actually OK with this.

Let´s assume that your theory is correct for a second. What exactly is the argument why silver will have higher gains than Gold
in this scenario? The industrial usage?

Where exactly is the counterparty risk in Bitcoin? Of course theoretically the big miners could collude to blacklist
your coins or try to double-spend, but in reality the incentive structure of the system disincentivizes fraudulent behavior.
If a miner would actually perform a fraudulent act like that the whole trust in Bitcoin would be gone and they would
be sitting on hardware and other infrastructure that is now worthless instead of making a fortune by continuing to play by
the network´s rules (and they obviously would have to write off hundreds of million of $ in investment).

This is one of the ingenious elements in Bitcoin´s design. The incentive structure ensures that
the only powers that could theoretically cheat the system stay honest.

The only counterparty risk I see is if you store your coins with an exchange or some other kind of service. But
everyone here heavily dissuades newcomers from doing this with the common slogans like "Not your private keys,
not your coins" and similar stuff. Of course some people choose to ignore this advice, but they get
Bitfinex´ed or Gox´ed sooner or later.

Trying to pull a MasterLuc I see??

If that's the definition of cryptocurrencies, I wonder how the definition of fiat will look like in your dictionary.