Help me with your thoughts on bitcoin futures.
In February I started to think if they are bad for bitcoin (because bitcoin remain bearish since introduction of futures).
Now i think they are bad, but probably not on extremely long turn. On extremely long term they are probably good (in years 2019, 2020)
But on short term (this year) i think bitcoin futures are bad. Why bad?
Because all the sudden people with a lot more money then those in crpyto can draw and earn money with hedging and drawing money from "little people with less experience". They wont take money from true hodlers who just hold, but bitcoin need new people in order to go up and up and crazy up, and experienced hedging companies could for quite some time draw price down and they have more knowledge whats and how much is needed to cause spikes down with help of futures.
Can someone help me dig out how much money is now in futures?
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_quotes_globex.htmlFor may its i think 3000 contacts? now i wonder how much money is in that
If 1 contract 100 bitcoins? 900k USD? and there was i think today 3000 buy/sell (or with other words 3000 combined going long + going short)
So 3000 times 900k usd = 2,7 billion USD in one day
Am i gettting this right ? i think not
I didnt get any repond so kindly if someone can answer me this please
I would also add I am assuming (perhaps I am wrong?) bitcoin futures are direclty tied to bitcoin. So I am under assumtion if someone opens large volume of shorts for bitcoin futures, they go down, or if someone opens large volume of longs they go up ?
I believe that the main point is that futures brings credibility to the bitcoin market and allows additional tools for BiG and Traditional money to get in through investment vehicles that are comfortable to them. I doubt that there is any necessity to go through all of the numbers in order to understand the overall bullish effect of having traditional financial vehicles in bitcoin - even if those vehicles allow for the shorting of bitcoin. Ultimately, bitcoin has it's own supply limitations, so any pressures to buy bitcoin is going to cause upwards price pressures until bitcoins reach a certain level of saturation, and even if peeps are willing to pay premiums on being able to use some of the traditional investment vehicles, the direct ownership of bitcoin is likely going to be more valuable and empowering - especially for regular Joes who are willing to learn about bitcoin and learn how to safeguard their own personal direct holdings of bitcoin.
So, from my perspective, you can come up with all kinds of formulations and theories about how you might believe that the ability to short bitcoin is going to cause downward price pressures on bitcoin, but I am not going to buy those theories because with bitcoin, you have to buy it first before you can really cause the price to go down by selling it, and it seems that bitcoin markets are going to recognize some of the concrete value in holding actual and verifiable bitcoins.
