even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount
Let me see if I understand you. You seem to be saying that, should you inform others as to your envisioned strategy, others will use this knowledge to trade against you, thereby affecting the actual market price, and dooming your strategy to failure. Is that what I am reading?
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I believe that you are reading the subject matter of my post incorrectly. I have attached the full context of the text (my earlier post) below for ease of referrenc.
In the past, sometimes I said that I don't want to say too much about some specific little trading strategy secrets based on a rationale similar to what you are outlining, but largely I am considerably transparent with the amount of specifics that I give, especially about the broad parameters of my trading strategy and many of the details of what I do and how I play my trades. Ultimately, there is going to be some flexibility in any trading methodology that is going to be left to individuals to tweak based on their own circumstances, including their timeline, amount of time they can dedicate to the project, risk tolerance, financial circumstances, previous positions taken, etc. etc..
In this particular instance (your selection of quoted text from me), I was not referring to trading strategy, but instead, I was referring to predicting the price. If I attempt to predict BTC prices one or two legs out, then there might be circumstances that I will assign decent probabilities to one or two legs, and I will be willing to express my level of confidence, but if I am attempting to predict further out (or more legs) then probabilities that I might assign will likely become so tentative and speculative that it is not really worth expressing what I think might happen. So I am not really trying to be secretive, even though I have a tentative view in my head that I believe is the most probable of outcomes - yet even with that longer vision that is several legs out, as soon as one of the earlier legs play out a bit differently than expected, then it could screw up my earlier view on the later legs.
So I am really not withholding information out of any kind of deviant or conspiracy thoughts, but instead that I don't believe that it is very important to share my thoughts on BTC price movements several legs out because those kind of views are frequently changing, but the one or two legs out might not be changing as much and the overall bullish long term view is not really changing too much, either.
Hopefully that clarifies, somewhat, what I meant by the text that you quoted.
I don't have any issue with what you are saying, and it comes off as reasonable; however, I also have difficulties attempting to assign any kind of level of certainty to anything beyond one leg. Or maybe I could reasonably assert something like, there is a decently sized possibility that prices will break above $10k in the coming day (perhaps 63%), and once prices break above $10k, if they do, then the odds are greater than 75% that they are going to appreciate at least 10% above $10k.. the odds of those two together seem to be .63 x .75, which is only 47.25%, so once you start to add up events, the probabilities begin to trickle way below 50%, and maybe I am even assigning too high of percentages to the preceding events, so I start to worry that I am speculating way too much if I try to string along too many events at once - even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount, even though I view my scenario as the most likely of scenarios, it begins to trickle down to the 1/3 or below territory, so it becomes more likely that I am wrong, even if I am picking the most likely of the then available options. I hope that makes sense.