Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1527. (Read 26735433 times)
December 11, 2023, 10:01:18 PM
December 11, 2023, 09:56:48 PM
Even with your forum registration date, maybe we could consider you as being close to a full cycle kind of guy, but still even if you had been fairly aggressively accumulating BTC for the last 4 years at $100 per week, you would have invested right around $21k, and you would have gotten around 1.11 BTC ($48,840)- which still is ONLY around less then 2.5x rise in value. or around 150% profits.. and with an asset like bitcoin, I have my doubts about the extent that it would be worth it to be cashing out any BTC - unless maybe you had happened to front load your investment, like I already mentioned...
The country where I live (Pakistan), 100$ per week (or 400$ per month) is not a small amount. Here average income is around 300$ per month. I try my best to accumulate as much as I can but investing 100$ per week is not in my reach TBH. If you are from developed country like USA where average income is 8000$ for such people investing 100$ in Bitcoin or any other asset is not a big deal.
Rest I do agree that there can be resistance at 50 or 55k rather with current dip we can inferior that Bitcoin has its first resistance at 44/43k before it make its way to 50k.
December 11, 2023, 09:33:37 PM
You might consider my sustainable withdraw thread to be helpful in terms of the kinds of ideas regarding how to consider withdrawing bitcoin and valuing it, and my fuck you status thread for how many BTC you might need to have by certain points in your journey.
Of course, if you end up retiring 20-30 years prior to your normal retirement age, and maybe we can use 60 as that age (since that is what you mentioned), then surely you would have to have bitcoin retain you for the time that you stop working and the time that those other sources of income (cashflow) start to become available to you.
I personally attempt to consider that we should be attempting to value bitcoin in terms of today's dollar value, so we should be attempting to presume that any future projection of how much we need is accurate in terms of today's dollars, but at the same time, it is quite likely that the way that the dollar (and other fiat currencies) have been so heavily debased in the last several years, there are vary low odds that various kinds of hyper-inflation are not going to kick in at various times, so surely it may well be better to be earning money during those kinds of times rather than being stuck with cashflows that come from various kinds of fixed income sources.. and perhaps bitcoin might be one of the ONLY assets that have any kind of decently good chances of both being able to keep up with inflation (and the ongoing degradation of money) and being able to have some sort of price appreciation on top of it.
There have been many assessments of both stocks and property values that likely show that they have not really gone up in value over the past 20-30 years, but instead have merely been keeping pace with the ongoing degradation of the dollar, so it is kind of a misconception and even a lopsided way in which the ONLY people who have not lost as much are those who are invested, versus anyone who has been relying on cash and income and other ways of saving (not talking about bitcoin) have not really been able to keep up at all, and so bitcoin so far seems to be one of the ONLY ones that is regularly outpacing the degradation of the dollar.. and sure there are some stocks and properties that outperform the others, so there are some ways that you could have had selected stocks that generally outperform index funds and the rest of the market.. but we know that many times asset managers do not even have much luck in terms of just being able to out perform index funds.
I appreciate the feedback and insight. I did read through your posts that you mentioned and found some helpful information.Of course, if you end up retiring 20-30 years prior to your normal retirement age, and maybe we can use 60 as that age (since that is what you mentioned), then surely you would have to have bitcoin retain you for the time that you stop working and the time that those other sources of income (cashflow) start to become available to you.
I personally attempt to consider that we should be attempting to value bitcoin in terms of today's dollar value, so we should be attempting to presume that any future projection of how much we need is accurate in terms of today's dollars, but at the same time, it is quite likely that the way that the dollar (and other fiat currencies) have been so heavily debased in the last several years, there are vary low odds that various kinds of hyper-inflation are not going to kick in at various times, so surely it may well be better to be earning money during those kinds of times rather than being stuck with cashflows that come from various kinds of fixed income sources.. and perhaps bitcoin might be one of the ONLY assets that have any kind of decently good chances of both being able to keep up with inflation (and the ongoing degradation of money) and being able to have some sort of price appreciation on top of it.
There have been many assessments of both stocks and property values that likely show that they have not really gone up in value over the past 20-30 years, but instead have merely been keeping pace with the ongoing degradation of the dollar, so it is kind of a misconception and even a lopsided way in which the ONLY people who have not lost as much are those who are invested, versus anyone who has been relying on cash and income and other ways of saving (not talking about bitcoin) have not really been able to keep up at all, and so bitcoin so far seems to be one of the ONLY ones that is regularly outpacing the degradation of the dollar.. and sure there are some stocks and properties that outperform the others, so there are some ways that you could have had selected stocks that generally outperform index funds and the rest of the market.. but we know that many times asset managers do not even have much luck in terms of just being able to out perform index funds.
Explaining to other people that keeping large sums of money in a "savings account" is actually resulting in them losing money over time is a struggle I run into. They ussually say something like but, "I get a 2.5% interest rate so I'm actually gaining money." They fail to understand inflation and its affects on their buying power.
Well yes. There is a difference between real and nominal, and so one of the incredibly deceptive aspects of money printing comes through when we see people who are actually believing that they are getting ahead because they are earning higher and higher interest rates, and we even had some of those same kinds of dynamics with member(s) trying to sell the idea of US Govt bonds merely because they are earning 5% or 6% annual interest, and so these are not even dumb people who are lured into these products because there can be a lot of uncertainties regarding where to put your money.. and surely those people who had been sucked into US Govt bonds in 2022 and even this year, while bitcoin prices were either in the low $20ks or in the sub $20ks can now see that they would have been way better off to put that same money into bitcoin.. and sure, no problem if you have a lot of money and you want to diversify into a variety of kinds of investments(savings), but some people do not have much or any bitcoin and they get lured into those kinds of inferior products that might not show themselves as inferior until way down the road..
Similar to much of 2020 when there were a lot of opportunities to get into bitcoin below $10k - and surely a lot of people could have still gotten into bitcoin below $8k, even if they might not have had been able to time some of the greater BTC crashes into the lower $6ks and even the March 2020 crash that got as low as $3,850... but even if we take $10k as an average price that someone might have had been able to get into bitcoin at various points in 2020 and perhaps even making several mistakes along the way, they still would have preserved a lot of purchasing power in BTC even if we are not going based on the higher spot price fluctuations that brought us up to $69k, but if we look at a more steady assessment of average BTC price, we still see that the 200-week moving average went up from around $5k in early 2020 and currently showing itself at $29,306.. and yeah, the 200-week moving average seems to be a decent way of valuating bitcoin in terms of bottom prices (even though it is not an absolute bottom)... right now it is going up at a rate of about $24 per day.
I got funny looks from the account manager at the bank the day I went in to close my savings account and withdraw all of it.
Personally, I believe it is better to try to keep some of those kinds of accounts open, as long as they are not costing you too much money in terms of minimum deposit sizes and/or fees for keeping them open... so what is the threshold? and are they more problems than they are worth? I am not sure..
She told me I have the highest interest rate possible because I was grandfathered into a high yield account. She said we dont even offer that high of a rate anymore so why would I want to lose that. I asked her what the rate was and she said 3%. I told her that's not enough please close the account. She was in disbelief.
Yes.. in real terms it is not likely earning any interest.. and may even be costing you, but many accounts do not offer any interest at all... and so in that sense either way it is costing you to keep very much value in those kinds of accounts.. so yeah, I am not sure of the balance, and I am not sure if it necessary to close those kinds of accounts, but maybe to be careful in how much value that we hold in those of accounts and recognizing that they are costing us money to maintain value in them.
I have several bank accounts and most of them don't earn any interest, but sometimes it is going to be difficult to do certain things without some of those kinds of accounts, and it can be problematic to lose your banking history or your credit, and sure some people cannot even get credit and we are likely transitioning away from credit systems, yet it could take 50-200 years to really get into a bitcoin standard, and even in the next 10 to 30 years, it is likely going to remain valuable to have some abilities to transact within traditional systems.. and some systems are not going to allow or recognize bitcoin transactions.. and if those are the kinds of limitations that you want, then that's your choice.. There are bitcoin pioneers who want to push limits and ONLY have their value in bitcoin (or mostly), but I have my doubts about the practicality of that way of living especially for the vast majority of normies.. unless you really are able to do it without suffering too much.
By the way, the vast majority of normies know fuck all about bitcoin, even if they might have had heard the word, and even a lot of bitcoin HODLers do not know very much about bitcoin... so it seems way better to try to get more and more people holding bitcoin and even to transact directly in bitcoin. I have a system in which I have been giving quite a bit of bitcoin away even in recent times (to friends and relatives), so one of the requirements is just to have a bitcoin address.. and at the same time, I talk about the power of having your own wallet .. and so many people gravitate towards various custodial services. and opt for the easy way out.. so it can be difficult to interact with these kinds of people and even some people refuse to get a bitcoin address.
I had a friend contact me recently. He is in his late 40s.. perhaps close to 50, and he has a family and likely terminal or close to terminal illness.. even though he has quite a bit of hope and surely is not a dumb person in terms of his education level and abilities to understand complicated topics (and nuances), and so much back and forth with him about my willingness to send him way more money if he gives me a bitcoin address, and so far he has refused and I am getting ready to give up.. but there still is some value in going back and forth and never really giving up completely, but maybe from time to time pausing in the intensity of the back and forth communications.. I even told him that I give no fucks about if he even holds onto the bitcoin, he can cash it out right away, but I am ONLY going to send him higher amounts of value (I already sent some value in dollars) if he gives me a bitcoin address.
Cost of living is another factor that varies greatly and is impacted by inflation. That is part of the reason why I mention becoming an unofficial expat. I do not have some sort of great patriotism that ties me to any one country. I am perfectly happy hopping around to what ever country fits my wants or needs at any point in my life once retired. There are obviously factors such as standard of living, cost of living, political climate, and Healthcare system that must be taken into account though.
I can relate. I do those kinds of travels myself, and sometimes it can become quite challenging.. so surely if you are not yet up in age, then you might be imaging some of the matters in terms of age, but there surely can be some challenges when moving from place to place.
The value of my "over 60 assets" and its buying power is definitely something that concerns me as they are tied to the US economy and USD strength. The world is an unpredictable place and the only thing certain is change. Sometimes I wonder if I made the right decision not to empty those accounts, take the early withdraw fee, and buy BTC with it. I have a friend that did this in 2017 and it obviously worked out for him so far.
I was very tempted in 2014 to the same thing, and surely I would have had done way better with my bitcoin investment had I cashed out some of my dollar based funds and put them into bitcoin, yet in the end, I suppose i am glad that I did not do it, even though they would have had been way more valuable.. and I think that there is some value in keeping some of those accounts active, even though they are largely melting icecubes... and they are not appreciating even close to as much as bitcoin.
Largely I like to suggest that I was already financially independent by the time that I came to bitcoin in late 2013, and so part of my motivation in getting into bitcoin was to be able to hedge my various dollar based investments, so I considered that it could take me close to 15 or 20 years to be able to get my bitcoin side of my investment to be somewhere near the same size as my dollar based investments, but largely it seems to have had ONLY taken around 3-4 years.. and sure I tell variations of this story, but if you take all of my dollar based investments and you might see that they grew around 80% or so over the past 10 years, but my bitcoin investment grew more than 40x (depending on how you calculate the matter), and I say that I could completely live off my various fiat based investments if bitcoin were to go to zero, so that is part of the rationale to just keep the fiat based investments in place, and at the same time, maybe we could say that if bitcoin is valued around $3k to $4k, then my bitcoin investments are valued about equally to my various fiat investments..
so either one could go to zero (and maybe we have to use the 200-week moving average as our way of valuating the bitcoin investment), but if we also look at bitcoin from a $3k to $4k valuation, then if the 200-week moving average is getting close to 10x that size, and so there is almost like a 10x (or would it be 9x?) cushion?.. and so is that too much value to have into bitcoin as compared to the fiat side? I am not sure, but it still seems that I could completely live off the fiat side of my investment if bitcoin were to go to zero, but there still could be various points in which some additional shaving off of the bitcoin side could be considered as prudent practices to make sure that not too many eggs are in one basket.. even though the fiat side is not really doing that great in terms of holding its value relative to bitcoin and even relative to maintaining purchasing power, so it seems that putting bitcoin value into some of the fiat side is like throwing that value into a bit of a dark hole in which the bitcoin side bails out the fiat side.. just to maintain the fiat side as a kind of functional system.. just in case the bitcoin side might not hold up.. Seems like low odds of such, but it is not non-zero odds.
December 11, 2023, 09:01:16 PM
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December 11, 2023, 08:54:52 PM
Bitcoin weekly candle shows it closed eight green weekly candles in a row, and we started a new week with a red candle! But shouldn't we wait till the weekend before we judge? I feel it's just a chance for you guys to buy more who missed the 15K, 20K, 25K, 30K and waited for more dip. We were at 44K, which allows you to acquire a little more at 40K.
But hey, did you miss that again?
Some short-time traders cashed out, and I am glad you guys got a chance to buy at a little cheap.
But hey, did you miss that again?
Some short-time traders cashed out, and I am glad you guys got a chance to buy at a little cheap.
December 11, 2023, 08:17:28 PM
BTC can go up or down
[...]
[...]
Most accurate prediction ever!
nope. he forgot sideways
just sayingI wanted to bring this up. It is on my difficulty thread.
Quote
Latest Block: 820777 (8 minutes ago)
Previous Retarget: last Sunday at 5:31 AM (-0.9592%)
Previous Retarget: last Sunday at 5:31 AM (-0.9592%)
I was surprised that no one else celebrated the difficult drop, seems like only Phill is following
. finally, after 6 consecutive epochs (roughly 3 months) or since (2023-09-06 epoch to be exact), we got a small -1% drop which isn't all that great but better than 5%+.Fees are down to 30 sat/Vbyte, price is stabilizing at around 41k, so 1PH earns roughly $95 / 0.00229 BTC which isn't bad considering the difficulty, the climb from mid-30s to 40k really helped a lot of miners, 5 months for the halving -- things are about to heat.
yeah large farms will practice the cheapest method to keeps fees at at least 30 sats.
from blockchain.com
1.11
0.34
0.37
0.43
0.63
0.56
0.37
0.30
0.44
0.57
last ten blocks were between 0.30-1.11 in fees
pretend that averages to 0.7
so 6.25 + 0.7 = 6.95 0.7/6.95 = 10 percent of earnings.
but in April 2024
3.125 + 0.7 = 3.825 this is 0.7/3.825 = 18 percent of the earnings.
So driving up fees will be a large miner desires more than ever.
look at 2028
1.5625 + 0.7 = 2.2625 means 0.7/1.5625 = 31% of the earnings are fees.
and in 2032
0.78125 + 0.7 = 1.48125 means 0.7/1.48125 = 47% of the earnings are fees.
it is pretty certain that 30 sats can be done by big pools for long maybe forever time periods.
So here's the the next ½ ing
So basically I remember JJG fucking around and saying there is no 4 year cycle (at least 2 years ago)
When I look at the reward to fee next 3 ½ ings if miners keep force fees to stay at 30 stats
10 percent fee per block now
18 percent fee per block 2024
31 percent fee per block. 2028
47 percent fee per block 2032
what does all of the above mean for supply shock?
say
6.95000 now
3.82500 2024
2.26250 2028
1.48125 2032
if fees flatten out at .7 btc per block. the ½ effect ends by 2036 or sooner if fees go to a steady 1 btc a block
December 11, 2023, 08:01:15 PM
December 11, 2023, 07:28:46 PM
WHAT IS THIS?!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
At 10% and still going I’d call it a legitimate correction on its way to possibly being a major correction. Given the timing of it, I would say that this has perhaps been caused by the mtgox email that went out around the time of the dip. It appears that things are in place to begin distributing the gox coins and I think people are getting ahead of it.
However the gox distribution will manipulate the price, Bitcoin's future is more or less mainly dependent on 1) time and 2) fundamentals.
I may quote: "Anything else is just noise".
EDIT: Seems like the Email is noise as well: https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/18fngkx/new_email_mtgoxnotice_concerning_launch_of/
EDIT2:
Quote
In a separate document sent to creditors today, Kobayashi said that on Nov. 17, the rehabilitation trustee received the redemption of 7 billion yen ($46.9 million) from the trust assets to fund the repayment. The remaining amount of the trust assets following such redemption was 8.8 billion yen, according to the notice.
Repayments in cash? But not for all of the creditors, right? I think i remember some survey about how creditors want their refunds, either $BTC or $USD.
So, does that mean that the trustee/trust already sold almost half of the gox coins? And the rest is going to creditor wallets "soon, too"?
I never have been so much into that mtGox refunding story, so please forgive if i sound clueless
I didn’t request a fiat payout so I can’t really comment on the progress of that. All I know is that my understanding of the gox email is that it is likely I will receive payment before another email, so I wouldn’t say it’s nothing. It could be the last gox email. The timing is mostly what makes me believe it had an effect on the market.
December 11, 2023, 07:03:25 PM
December 11, 2023, 06:27:00 PM
...Just so many more reasons to go up…
Most
@AlcoHoDL
ftfy
December 11, 2023, 06:03:23 PM
December 11, 2023, 05:15:10 PM
BTC can go up or down
[...]
[...]
Most accurate prediction ever!
December 11, 2023, 05:13:34 PM
BTC can go up or down
Just so many more reasons to go up…
Goodnight 💤
Just so many more reasons to go up…
Goodnight 💤
December 11, 2023, 05:01:16 PM
December 11, 2023, 04:40:31 PM
Renting can be nice. It only takes one bad renter or squatters to give you a really bad time though.
Been there, done that. I was a landlord back in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Had one tenant for whom I did a favor because she came recommended by someone who had lent me $40k interest-free toward the down payment on the house. I let her move in without paying the last-month's rent, two weeks early rent-free while I finished papering and painting upstairs because I heard she was couch surfing with her young child.
What a mistake. The bitch never gave me another penny, vandalized the place, called the building inspectors, health department and anyone else she thought could give me a hard time and demanded I pay her $10k to move out. That was a third of a century ago and was a lot of money. I went to the local small landlord self-help center to get free advice on the proper legal eviction procedure because I found out that she was connected to a radical left-wing community legal clinic with a reputation for screwing landlords. They supplied me with the eviction forms but I had to do everything myself... serving the papers, filing affidavits of service, booking the court dates, etc.
It took me almost 6 months and several court appearances to finally get her out. Meanwhile I had to keep paying the mortgage, taxes and utilities. The night before the final court date, neighbors called me to tell me she was moving out in the middle of the night. The next day I finally got the eviction order and was awarded over $9k but of course I never saw a dime of it. You can't get blood from a stone.
When I bought our house last year, we inherited a basement tenant who has been there for over 8 years, always pays his rent on time, is a workaholic who's seldom home and makes no noise. He also has a cat, which helps keep rodents away. I met him before closing by chance in a local bar when he overheard me describing our upcoming purchase to the bar owner. He mentioned the address and asked if that was the place. He said he lived there, loved it and hoped he wouldn't have to move. I assured him we had no intention of evicting him or even raising his rent and that he would barely even notice the change in ownership.
Best thing we've done. A few hundred dollars less revenues per month is a small price to pay for the peace of mind of having a tenant who is almost like a partner. He watches over the property while we're in Mexico during the winter and will take care of any crises that may occur.
Landlords and tenants should be partners, not adversaries.
December 11, 2023, 04:04:07 PM
WHAT IS THIS?!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
At 10% and still going I’d call it a legitimate correction on its way to possibly being a major correction. Given the timing of it, I would say that this has perhaps been caused by the mtgox email that went out around the time of the dip. It appears that things are in place to begin distributing the gox coins and I think people are getting ahead of it.
Soon to be a nothingburger.
I hope
December 11, 2023, 04:01:19 PM
December 11, 2023, 03:53:01 PM
As discussed, everybody's investment/living style is different. I hear from people who have rental properties that it is very bothersome because of the need to provide the upkeep (albeit you can hire a company that would "eat" into your income). That said, right now it is not very economical as well because income from rentals is roughly equal to what you get from a money market fund, while doing absolutely nothing and having virtually no risk. Canadian real estate has been appreciating for decades, though, so maybe this is a plus in your particular case. However, my personal opinion is that RE is vastly overpriced around here, so I cannot take this risk. I routinely see $$1.5-2 mil houses which I think should be more like $500-700K in value at most.
Renting can be nice. It only takes one bad renter or squatters to give you a really bad time though.
Exactly …
For in Belgium it’s almost impossible to get that renter out of the place as well…
With renting out a place it only becomes a good thing when the place appreciates in value overtime.
Otherwise with a good renter and no broken things you can have an extra income but still there are plenty of downsides as well… most of the time when the place appreciates in value and the renter is a good one then it’s a good thing.
Very true.
Renting out property can be a very bad experience, often leading to court cases, lawyers, and lots of wasted time and money.
A colleague of mine rented a 3-bedroom apartment to a family. They paid 3-4 months rent and then stopped, and refused to leave. The police could not do anything--the case had to go to court, which would have taken a long time. Eventually, my colleague resorted to using the services of a local mafia ring! He paid them to go and beat the shit out of the tenants, threatening to break arms/legs and worse. The tenants got scared and left the place, after completely destroying it. The place was like a war zone, all electronics/appliances destroyed, taps/pipes bent, graffiti all over the walls. They even spread excrement on the walls.
I own a second house, and was tempted to rent it out. After hearing this story, I decided not to. Not worth it. I'm OK financially, don't need the extra money, and certainly don't need to add worries and troubles to my life.
December 11, 2023, 03:23:57 PM
WHAT IS THIS?!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
At 10% and still going I’d call it a legitimate correction on its way to possibly being a major correction. Given the timing of it, I would say that this has perhaps been caused by the mtgox email that went out around the time of the dip. It appears that things are in place to begin distributing the gox coins and I think people are getting ahead of it.
However the gox distribution will manipulate the price, Bitcoin's future is more or less mainly dependent on 1) time and 2) fundamentals.
I may quote: "Anything else is just noise".
EDIT: Seems like the Email is noise as well: https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/18fngkx/new_email_mtgoxnotice_concerning_launch_of/
EDIT2:
Quote
In a separate document sent to creditors today, Kobayashi said that on Nov. 17, the rehabilitation trustee received the redemption of 7 billion yen ($46.9 million) from the trust assets to fund the repayment. The remaining amount of the trust assets following such redemption was 8.8 billion yen, according to the notice.
Repayments in cash? But not for all of the creditors, right? I think i remember some survey about how creditors want their refunds, either $BTC or $USD.
So, does that mean that the trustee/trust already sold almost half of the gox coins? And the rest is going to creditor wallets "soon, too"?
I never have been so much into that mtGox refunding story, so please forgive if i sound clueless
December 11, 2023, 03:13:41 PM
WHAT IS THIS?!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
A DIP FOR ANTS???!!
At 10% and still going I’d call it a legitimate correction on its way to possibly being a major correction. Given the timing of it, I would say that this has perhaps been caused by the mtgox email that went out around the time of the dip. It appears that things are in place to begin distributing the gox coins and I think people are getting ahead of it.
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