Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 15316. (Read 26717953 times)

What are the holidays without drugs and washing them down with holiday spirits.

Regarding the blow-off, I highly guess we've achieved it with the latest bull run FOR NOW. For sure it will occur once and twice in the parabolic trend we are in. And what is happening in terms of the correction, is extremely healthy to continue our bull-run in healthy manners as well.

JJG, are you on drugs during the holidays? Or just drunk?

I like this guy already

in other news, Bitcoin; slow, expensive, and annoying...just the way I like it

https://tomluongo.me/2017/11/16/the-foundation-of-the-next-cryptocurrency-bull-market/

I had not noticed.  I was mostly reading for substantive points, anyhow.




I'm sorry, I made a typo there.  I had meant to refer back to your 20x assertion, and I accidentally typed 2x.  I went back and fixed that in my original post because I had really meant to say 20x.  I am glad that you caught that.   



I agree with both of those assertions.  Yes....

So in essence you are admitting, if we did happen to do another 20x, that would likely be a kind of "blow off" top that would likely end up in a kind of prolonged period of correction... Maybe we are kind of on a similar page, here, but I am kind of thinking that anywhere between another 4x and 7x price appreciation within the next year would be a "blow-off" top too, and anything beyond 7x would be beyond any kind of reasonable expectations that I could conceive.




I hope that he is not referring to a 1 or 2 year scenario because 2.4m in that kind of timeframe would be in the territory of absolute insanity, and personally, I would think that a 2.4m scenario would be quite difficult to achieve before 2024-ish.... not impossible, but quite a bit in the "slim chance" arena.



O.k.  Perhaps, I read too much zealousness in your earlier response, and sorry that was my wrong interpretation.  I do think that $100k is more possible in 2018 - but even that seems a bit on the difficult to achieve scenarios.. probably less than 25%, but surely much more achievable than $400k.

Also, yeah, we already know that bitcoin has tendencies to outperform expectations, so surely I doubt that either of us are locked into our current prognosis, because, for example, if, in the next six months, events unravel in one direction or another that is outside of expectations, then those events could also cause a need to tweak price predictions for the subsequent six months or so.



EXACTLY!!!!!   Those are two factors that remain BIG in this whole influential formula... Let's continue to monitor these factors, and I surely find these two factors to be quite exciting and also ongoingly difficult to quantify with any kind of precision.

Perhaps 38.6317928%-ish?  hahahahaha.... more conservative charlie from me?

At first I'm sorry for my broken English in my last reply, when I read it, I sounded like a drunk guy  

Over time the market will decide how much of a true free-market economy should hold as its reserves a pool of real savings versus at-risk liquid capital.

We don’t have this now in the ‘real world’ because central banks distort risk assessment through the manipulation of interest rates, the cost of money.  They do this to minimize the amount of savings to promote money velocity versus wealth creation.

At first I'm sorry for my broken English in my last reply, when I read it, I sounded like a drunk guy  

I will call you a contradictory Charile, why ? Read those two sentences from your reply

"however, I still think that another 2x is a bit much to expect in the coming year or so."
"so yeah, I can see another 65% to 7x price increase in the coming year (I mean beyond our current ATH of $19666)"

I don't prefer we do another 20x as I will really be afraid from a serious bubble and NO, we are not in a bubble now, we are in a S-adoption curve as well as S-price curve.

There was an simple analysis made by a friend of mine on twitter talked about topping the S-curve at $2.4m which makes sense although it can go beyond that figure when we go past that point, why would it stop there ?

What you didn't get from me is that in 2017 we made nearly 20x, and IF we make another 20x we will be at $400K and my predication is at $100K which is simply 5x, can't we do ONLY 5x next year ?

Don't underestimate the power of the institutional money and still the mainstream is far away from Bitcoin, yes they are hearing about it, but not acting towards it yet.

Good for you! But I don't think it will be that late.

I based my prediction on a new global financial crisis... And I'm still thinking I made a bearish prediction.

When something is possible to go wrong, then something will go wrong!!!

So, I got a lot of transactions through quickly at 120-131 Sat / byte, many around $4.35. Not cheap by 2014 standards, but not too bad, I guess. I am leaving my legacy paper wallets alone for the moment.

I suppose that if your self-assessment of your perspective and methodology seem to be working out pretty good for you overall, then it would be difficult to change, and as you suggest, there would likely not be any need to change a system that is working and does not seem to be broken.

I will admit that the BTC price performance of about the past 4 months has been about 3x to 4x more bullish than amongst my most bullish of perspectives, in the early to mid part of 2017 and previously.  Accordingly, such bullish performance has caused me to tweak my BTC expectations even further upwards. 

Personally, I don't think that my tweaking of my BTC price expectations further upwards is some kind of pie in the sky getting caught up in hoopla, but instead is based on a kind of solid evidence based reassessment of the situation based on such evidence.  I surely doubt that we are at the top of the current trend, and we will be testing the resistance of ATH price points in the near future (within 1 week to 3 months); however, I still think that another 2x is a bit much to expect in the coming year or so. 

Think about it Fakhoury, we should not be measuring BTC performance merely within the bounds of our current calendar year, but we should be considering the whole upwards price performance, which is largely a more than two year phenomenon and a bouncing off of support that was largely in the mid $200s from 2015.  So, o.k.  If we look at $250-ish as the start off point, then we have a bit more than a 78x price increase from $250 to $19666.  Furthermore, we have a bit of an increasing exponential curve, especially since about August 2017, yet at the same time, we have a lot of bullish fundamentals, including Segwit and including increased financialization and including increasing world adoption, so much better liquidity, but even with all of these positive things going on in bitcoin, buying pressure still has to keep up with the exponential increases in price, so yeah, I can see another 65% to 7x price increase in the coming year (I mean beyond our current ATH of $19666); however, I have a bit more difficult time appreciating any kind of meaningful likelihood of another 20x within about the next year.  That would be fucking amazing, and not completely impossible from my perspective, but surely on the low end of probabilities, perhaps less than 2% in my current thinking... but hey, call me a conservative charlie.       

09/03/2018

Thanks!   

I am still waiting for the Bitcoin price to really fall, so I can buy some more..

                                                                                       -Roombot                !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You should actually try to use Bitcoin and make your own decision.

I have always presumed jbreher is probably at least in the 4 digits BTC, maybe even in the (low) 5's.... Which is one of the reasons I have always wondered and tried to understand why he decided to go the "wrong way" (Jihan/Ver/Bcash) with so much at stake.

JJG is most probably in the (low) three digits.

... Of course that are just my estimations I take out my ass. Might perfectly be wrong.

And anyone can do whatever he feels like with his stuff!

I didn't make any Tether calls. I might have joked "tether to the moon" but I'm scared to death having to hold tethers instead of fiat.

 Awww come on JJG lighten up.  The man can do what he wants with his Bitcoin and it's family for crying out loud!
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that jbreher doesn't fall into the financially normal category anyway.

edit: to correct grammatical error

I'm going to take a stab at explaining why bigger blocks are a bad solution to the vending machine problem.

Eventually ( and SOON(tm)) the demands on the worlds premier blockchain will cause it to be impossible to run fully L1 transactions on pedestrian hardware.  And the more demands we make on the hardware that run full nodes (users and miners), the more we shift that job to the hands of the powerful and rich (mostly the miners).  They will be incentivized to build cartels as the validation of transactions on the network become more and more centralized.  



This recent twitter conversation should give a big blocker pause.  Let's just say Microsoft decides to use the BITCOIN blockchain to handle decentralized identity validation.  If this were to happen we would see possibly tens of MILLIONS of transactions a second.  And this kind of stuff WILL happen.  If the blockchain is to remain uncensored it HAS to.

Anyone care to do the math to see how big the BCH block size would have to be to handle this increase?  Suffice it to say nothing close to 8MB will cut it.  And this smashes Moore's law.  Instantly we need drive space, network bandwidth, and computational power to handle MUCH bigger block sizes.  And the time constant stays the same.  We have to be able to do this in 10 minutes for each block.

Instantly we have a small number of people controlling the Bitcoin network.  Will make a 51% attack a piece of cake among other things.

Making Bitcoin blocks 8MB so you can buy a bag of weed with it (why the HELL are you buying weed using a transparent blockchain by the way?  Use Monero for this?) is like putting a bandaid on a bullet wound.

Sidechains are needed, powerful, and INEVITABLE.  The use of sidechains will not preclude transaction made directly on the base chain.  The real Bitcoin will have all this power soon.  Soon enough, believe it or not...  This is why people are saying to use Litecoin, or Monero until the mempool cools down.

BCASH is part of an planned and orchestrated power grabbing attack on Bitcoin.

There is only one Bitcoin.