Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1617. (Read 26713617 times)
October 06, 2023, 07:01:19 PM
October 06, 2023, 06:22:09 PM
Just having a good think, looking for opinions.
There is an having and above all, an ETF incoming.
Nobody is selling Bitcoin right now.
It is super resilient when compared to other asset classes like Bonds (ahah) stocks and...
As per recession, at the first sign of cracks, the FED will cut rates at a super fast speed.
October 06, 2023, 06:02:12 PM
Anybody still got significant fiat sitting on the sides, waiting?
I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.
I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?
Just having a good think, looking for opinions.
I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.
I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?
Just having a good think, looking for opinions.
Q1: A-yes, but not TOO significant.
Q2: plenty...and 2020 has shown that it could come from anywhere:
a. Some kind of financial accident. Long bonds bought in 2021 are down 45-55% in value. Sure, if someone sits on them 10-20 years, they would get the nominal $ back at maturity plus a coupon.
However, if they used those bonds value to leverage up (and they usually do), then some players might be in trouble already, we just don't know who, exactly, and to which degree.
b. People dismiss geopolitics, but with a smaller probability, things could go worse there yet. Who knows what is going on in the heads of the politicians in the opposite camps? Do you trust that everything would be quiet? I hope so, but I cannot be certain.
Personally, I am waiting for new funds deployment at least until April, maybe even longer, depending on the Fed.
I might not capture an additional alpha, but as Arthur Hays says: getting 5.5-6% right now in money market on those "stale" funds beats going all in prematurely.
October 06, 2023, 06:01:16 PM
October 06, 2023, 05:48:36 PM
Yeah Buddy, now stay on top of it 
#GN
#GN
October 06, 2023, 05:04:50 PM
October 06, 2023, 04:38:14 PM
October 06, 2023, 04:04:52 PM
October 06, 2023, 04:01:33 PM
Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...
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Ah, buddy it took me a while to reply because you have written a very long post
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You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge
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I know that Government isn't controlling Bitcoin and they won't be able to suppress
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Hard as you try, you can't win the long game with him. Honorable mention for trying though.
October 06, 2023, 03:12:50 PM
Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...
In my investment ideas thread, on December 16, 2021, I had already made a post in which I gave odds of about 0.5% that BTC would be more than $1.5 million in the last cycle.. which, as we know, did not end up happening... but I had already accounted for those kinds of supra $1 million prices as being possible in the last cycle.
And, I assigned $800k or above as having 2.5% odds...
So of course I admit that I hardly have any clue about where the BTC price is going to go, but if anyone is trying to predict both a date and a price, then they likely need to place it in terms of probabilities, and so sometimes, people will give a "base case" which they believe to be the most likely outcome, but even a base case might have the strongest odds, but it still might be only 30% or 40%, even though it is the base case and the scenario with the highest of odds in comparison to other possibilities still might have less than 50% odds.
Of course, most normal people do not either speak in terms of probabilities and even if they were to do that many people still would not even hear them in terms of what they had just said because people like to hear what is going to happen and what is predicted to happen, even though it may not even have high odds of happening.
Sure, there are people who actually believe their own predictions or they believe that various events provide a high level of likelihood or certainty to what they are predicting and people seem to prefer when people speak with conviction and confidence in regards to predictions. .especially if someone is holding themselves out as an expert or engaged in an interview... which the subject of price and predictions frequently comes up because people like to hear about those kinds of topics.
In my investment ideas thread, on December 16, 2021, I had already made a post in which I gave odds of about 0.5% that BTC would be more than $1.5 million in the last cycle.. which, as we know, did not end up happening... but I had already accounted for those kinds of supra $1 million prices as being possible in the last cycle.
And, I assigned $800k or above as having 2.5% odds...
So of course I admit that I hardly have any clue about where the BTC price is going to go, but if anyone is trying to predict both a date and a price, then they likely need to place it in terms of probabilities, and so sometimes, people will give a "base case" which they believe to be the most likely outcome, but even a base case might have the strongest odds, but it still might be only 30% or 40%, even though it is the base case and the scenario with the highest of odds in comparison to other possibilities still might have less than 50% odds.
Of course, most normal people do not either speak in terms of probabilities and even if they were to do that many people still would not even hear them in terms of what they had just said because people like to hear what is going to happen and what is predicted to happen, even though it may not even have high odds of happening.
Sure, there are people who actually believe their own predictions or they believe that various events provide a high level of likelihood or certainty to what they are predicting and people seem to prefer when people speak with conviction and confidence in regards to predictions. .especially if someone is holding themselves out as an expert or engaged in an interview... which the subject of price and predictions frequently comes up because people like to hear about those kinds of topics.
Ah, buddy it took me a while to reply because you have written a very long post and comprehending that one takes some time
. I have gone through your prediction thread before but today I saw that one and I must say that you had the probablity of Bitcoin going to $1.5M at 0.5% which any good thinker and investors might predict as that's less than 1% chance to achieve that level. Of course you're more serious with your predictions and you didn't claimed that it will go to $1.5 in 2021 or 2022 because those were the times of the intense bull run. Many of us have predicted that Bitcoin can go $1 million sometime and still a lot of us believe that it will go above $1 million but putting exact year might not be accurate. Yes, you're right in saying that people are always curious to know that what's going to happen next with Bitcoin and they really want to hear something positive about it. Ah, that's also true that there are some people who don't listen to others predictions and follow their own predictions. The ones who participate in interviews often share their opinion about the upcoming price of the Bitcoin and their claims are mostly for showing purpose because they want to get attention of the audience only. I won't say that they aren't Bitcoin enthusiasts but they somehow show off to get some publicity.
You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge (or the appearance of being in charge). I doubt that the government has as much control over the bitcoin price as you are making them out to be able to have in terms of their likely lame responses. and various problems that they have created for themselves over many decades. It's not like they can fix the problem that they even put themselves into without somehow teaming up with bitcoin rather than fighting it.. but hey, they likely are going to have various battles and hopefully not too many of us bitcoin HODLers and/or activists end up becoming casualties of whatever bullshit hostilities that they choose to direct towards bitcoin.
I am not even anti-government, but I still can appreciate that dumb policies sometimes will come out from folks who do not really understand and when there are various kinds of desperation in society and in various governmental, societal and business systems that largely revolve around various historical abuses of fiat money systems... and yeah a CBDC would likely be another form of abuse, but not even necessarily working in their favor since bitcoin is already hear as a life boat and they might end up incentivizing more and more people to get on the bitcoin life boat if they take too draconian of measures... but yeah we will see.. I am not necessarily disagreeing that various CBDCs are going to be tried to attempt to rescue various sinking ships, but its not likely to even be close enough to either save them or that there is not even any strong evidence that bitcoin will end up being hindered (rather than accelerated by some of their possible draconian efforts which is likely going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction even if more world emergencies also are implemented. shutting down of the internet, aliens, more viruses, etc.
I am not even anti-government, but I still can appreciate that dumb policies sometimes will come out from folks who do not really understand and when there are various kinds of desperation in society and in various governmental, societal and business systems that largely revolve around various historical abuses of fiat money systems... and yeah a CBDC would likely be another form of abuse, but not even necessarily working in their favor since bitcoin is already hear as a life boat and they might end up incentivizing more and more people to get on the bitcoin life boat if they take too draconian of measures... but yeah we will see.. I am not necessarily disagreeing that various CBDCs are going to be tried to attempt to rescue various sinking ships, but its not likely to even be close enough to either save them or that there is not even any strong evidence that bitcoin will end up being hindered (rather than accelerated by some of their possible draconian efforts which is likely going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction even if more world emergencies also are implemented. shutting down of the internet, aliens, more viruses, etc.
I know that Government isn't controlling Bitcoin and they won't be able to suppress its growth but they're making those CBDCs as competitors to Bitcoin and I believe that those CBDCs might play positive role for Bitcoin instead of suppressing it. Same like you I'm not against government or any centralized authorities, but still I guess that Sec and other authorities are trying their best to limit the growth of Bitcoin and that's a reason they're delaying the ETFs. The ETF's will surely play a better role in this coming cycle and they won't be able to delay those for much longer durations.
You're really right the CBDC will surely be another form of abuse like the fiat but I believe that CBDCs may work in favor of Bitcoin even if the government is making them as Bitcoin competitors. However, I still believe that the CBDCs are intended to suppress the growth of Bitcoin and they'll more likely play their role to promote CBDCs as safe back by Government and may promote fake lies against Bitcoin or ban it in many regions to suppress its growth. The Bitcoin is active and working only because of the community and the believers and if the started putting restrictions on citizens of their countries one-by-one then that might affect Bitcoin to some extent.
October 06, 2023, 03:01:16 PM
October 06, 2023, 02:50:01 PM
I don't Believe these things, they could be other reasons, article writers sometimes give a reason like the truth will follow , I don't see Investors saying , like this about the jobs Data for Increasing the FED rates I'm going to sell BTC:
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dives-us-jobs-data-fed-rate-hike
Let BTC fall? 2% is normal, everyone is buying, selling, you don't know the natural trend, the trend is bullish, sometimes when you start moving forward you will gain some momentum, and it doesn't mean that the price has to fall, There could be many reasons. To have Bitcoin you have to have decision, people with insecurity cannot achieve anything, they would always be the weak hands.
Quote
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price action as the largest cryptocurrency lost 2.1% in a single hourly candle.
A subsequent rebound saw bulls recover those losses, with $27,700 — the area of interest from before the data release — now back in focus.
The volatility came thanks to U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) jumping to almost double the number expected for September — 336,000 versus 170,000.
Demonstrating the labor market’s ongoing resilience to the Federal Reserve’s counterinflation measures in the form of interest rate hikes, the implications of the September result were nonetheless viewed as bad for risk assets — including crypto.
A subsequent rebound saw bulls recover those losses, with $27,700 — the area of interest from before the data release — now back in focus.
The volatility came thanks to U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) jumping to almost double the number expected for September — 336,000 versus 170,000.
Demonstrating the labor market’s ongoing resilience to the Federal Reserve’s counterinflation measures in the form of interest rate hikes, the implications of the September result were nonetheless viewed as bad for risk assets — including crypto.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dives-us-jobs-data-fed-rate-hike
Let BTC fall? 2% is normal, everyone is buying, selling, you don't know the natural trend, the trend is bullish, sometimes when you start moving forward you will gain some momentum, and it doesn't mean that the price has to fall, There could be many reasons. To have Bitcoin you have to have decision, people with insecurity cannot achieve anything, they would always be the weak hands.
October 06, 2023, 02:33:24 PM
.....
trigger alert...
...oh look ...it worked. (hardly surprising in this here famous thread)
October 06, 2023, 02:01:16 PM
October 06, 2023, 01:24:30 PM
Anybody still got significant fiat sitting on the sides, waiting?
I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.
I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?
Just having a good think, looking for opinions.
I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.
I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?
Just having a good think, looking for opinions.
Hmm for recession I think we are gonna experience it after halving ATH, for now, the recession is not a big deal as it will take its time to bring its impacts, a big move can be played by SEC only to bring us that low unless SEC doesn't consider any action I think we are on a smooth highway.
People aren't stupid (Only those who consider facts) but influencers are stupid as for newbies they are showing them green gardens of another dump to $22k to $19k again, as they were expecting from the $30k to $25k more falling season in JUl 2021...
October 06, 2023, 01:13:29 PM
14 years ago Bitcoin exchange rate.
source
Shit, I was only 5 years old and don't know what is Bitcoin..
October 06, 2023, 01:07:56 PM
I got a strong feeling for page parity very soon maybe by Oct 23rd my demented bro-in-law's birthday. soon very soon. BTC is aching for a huge explosive blast upwards. @no homo
October 06, 2023, 01:04:53 PM
October 06, 2023, 01:02:15 PM
Nearly half of crypto users invest to boost living standards: Report
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitget-survey-nearly-half-crypto-users-invest-boost-personal-living-standards
How has cryptocurrency investing changed?
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitget-survey-nearly-half-crypto-users-invest-boost-personal-living-standards
How has cryptocurrency investing changed?
Cryptocurrency, you mean those shitcoins where most people invest on a friend's suggestion and get trapped, I'm not sure but here in Bitcoin I'm sure 50% of the people come with this mindset, whereas from reaming 50%, we can consider 20% are those who are investing to secure their value (to avoid inflation and get some extra bonus returns) and from remaining 30% most of them call themselves Bitcoiners, most f them are trying their luck, for other you can say Strong hands and 1% to 5% are generation conscious. That's it but anyway, these are not any authentic figures just my assumptions.
But I think it will fall quite nearly.. For the shit coins, I can't be specific in anything and here we don't consider shito-coins.
October 06, 2023, 12:56:46 PM
Anybody still got significant fiat sitting on the sides, waiting?
I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.
I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?
Just having a good think, looking for opinions.
I am mostly done buying with funds that I set aside selling some in 2021. I do have a fiat nest that I could plough back in, if there was something akin to the COVID mindrust event but that will only be used in an extreme dump.
I’ve been wondering for a while what, if anything, could cause a bad dump now with the halving so close. People aren’t stupid, they know bitcoin moons after each halving. Would a recession send us that low? How likely do you guys think a recession is now?
Just having a good think, looking for opinions.
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