And the price dip after the Winklevoss ETF denial was much more brief and more shallow than most ppl expected (unless I misremember), so yeah I suppose it would count.
I bought the top. $1200 by that time. Was one of my first big moves in Bitcoin. Had to wait 2 months to believe in it again. An eternity for someone who came from ForEx.
I bought at the top too in late November 2013. $1,200 off of local bitcoins 1.24 BTC for $1,500. I was not disgruntled by that event because I continued to buy about .1BTC per week for the next year or two, and by the the time, I began to sell(really trade) I had brought my average price per BTC down to $500-ish - and I was selling (trading) at $250 and higher from a conceptual BTC stash that I had acquired at a price that was below $250 for that portion of the stash.
Sure, I was disappointed by the nearly two year downtrend in BTC prices - however, such downtrend should not have been completely unexpected, especially since at the end of 2013, bitcoin had already gone through 2 exponential price curves - and through the combination of those two price explosions, it had gone up more than 100x... so it would be silly to be disgruntled by the downturn, or even to buy a whole bunch at the top and then not have a plan in order to attempt to bring down your cost per BTC or have some other reasonable strategy.
So could this be the same thing leading up to Aug 21? Yeah, I suppose it could. Although it doesn't seem to me that Aug 21 will be as big an event from a trading perspective as bip141 lock-in. The former is guaranteed (now), the latter was not until shortly before it happened.
It's not much revealing. BIP141 lock-in means nothing if a big mess occurs around 8 days from here and the real Bitcoin supported by Core gets the lesser share of hashrate.
What are the odds of hashpower not going towards segwit mining? You really believe that miners want to kill the golden goose and take chances on some kind of pie in the sky unproven approach of attempting some renegade fork of mining power? Could happen, sure.. lot's of speculation about this, but what are the odds? would such 51% attack be sustainable - especially if only coming from miners and no one follow their dumbasses?