Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17024. (Read 26589537 times)

We need wage cucks too.

I need a big supply of REGRETAMINE. Most of the people that didn't give a shit about my bitcoin speeches throughout the years are now aware that bitcoin's value has skyrocketed by 15x.

Ooops, it turns out that ignorance is expensive. On the other hand, we can't all do the same thing. We need wage cucks too. I still remember how you were all laughing at me.

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My grandmother is using Zcash to purchase her knitting supplies. The whole system is out of order.

This talk of doubling times is my cue to weigh in with an update, calling it as I sees it.

The bull mode begun mid-2015 is clearly in full flight, we crossed $1500 conclusively around May 1 and now it seems like $3000 will form a base soon enough. So doubling period is currently ~6 weeks. Given that, the blow-off of this adoption wave likely has 2~3 doublings left, final top still targetting around 10-12k near end of July.

I refuse to call these bull runs "bubbles" as that is incorrect. Bubbles form once and then the speculative asset is sold down to worthlessness. After each major pullback the bitcoin market capitalisation (total float value) has never dropped below it's previous top in major fiat denominations. I just cannot believe how even respected Elliot wave analysts have fallen into the mind-trap of incorrectly referring to these bitcoin adoption waves as "bubbles".

Not pulled, bought...

Just got pulled.

Meanwhile, polo has 7500btc sell order of eth at 0.114 and it's not getting pulled...
Lets see what will happen.

This talk of doubling times is my cue to weigh in with an update, calling it as I sees it.

The bull mode begun mid-2015 is clearly in full flight, we crossed $1500 conclusively around May 1 and now it seems like $3000 will form a base soon enough. So doubling period is currently ~6 weeks. Given that, the blow-off of this adoption wave is likely has 2~3 doublings left, final top still targetting around 10-12k near end of July.

I refuse to call these bull runs "bubbles" as that is incorrect. Bubbles form once and then the speculative asset is sold down to worthlessness. After each major pullback the bitcoin market capitalisation (total float value) has never dropped below it's previous top in major fiat denominations. I just cannot believe how even respected Elliot wave analysts have fallen into the mind-trap of incorrectly referring to these bitcoin adoption waves as "bubbles".

One interesting thing about the chart of bitcoin is that it has a text-book Elliott wave shape (we have not labeled the chart, but it seems obvious to us that it lends itself to such labeling). This applies to the weekly chart shown further below as well and also to other time frames. Regardless of what one thinks of Elliott wave theory, price trends in financial markets definitely have fractal characteristics.

Empirically they consist of sequences of patterns that are recurring over and over again in every conceivable time frame, i.e., the same patterns (or rather, very similar patterns, such as for instance triangles) that form on daily, weekly or monthly charts, also form on one minute, ten minute and hourly charts. These patterns appear to reflect various stages in the evolution of market psychology within the time frames captured by these charts.

R.N. Elliott cataloged such recurring patterns in the stock market and tried to find out if they followed rules that could be defined and used for forecasts. Obviously such an endeavor is fraught with many difficulties. Particularly the validity of the theoretical framework that was created after the empirical identification of said patterns and the promulgation of the technical rules governing the Elliott wave principle seems questionable.

But that is not really what we want to discuss here. One doesn’t necessarily have to believe that the Elliott wave principle is valid or useful for making accurate market forecasts in order to recognize that its leading practitioners have gathered a number of useful empirical insights.

In this particular case we mention it mainly because typically, “textbook” Elliott wave patterns only emerge in markets with broad participation. Since these patterns reflect the predominant mood of market participants, or if you will, the “market mind”, recognizable shapes only tend to form in liquid markets with a large number of participants. While we cannot say what precisely the threshold is, i.e., at what point pure randomness is replaced with something that resembles a more orderly arrangement, the price chart itself conveys the information that the threshold has been crossed.

The bid/ask spread of bitcoin is usually quite tight as well, although it has tended to widen amid the recent increase in volatility. We observed trading activity at one of the larger exchanges while it traded around $2,400 and a the time the bid/ask spread fluctuated from as little as 30 cents to short term wides of up to $7 when short term volatility spiked. Even at its widest the spread was therefore just ~0.2%, which also shows that this is market with broad participation. Keep in mind that we just observed the spread over a limited time window, it is therefore possible that it will occasionally be wider, but probably not by much.

In 2013 it went like this.

First bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Double in half a week
Up a bit then crash

Second bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Up a bit then crash

Recently we doubled in a month (1250 to 2500) but then it flattened out. That's a good thing.

So we'd have to be at 6k in a week at this point for it to be a bubble? 

How long did the doublings in a week continue for in 2013? I missed the run up back then, this time round will be my first experience of a massive run up.

I will not be satisfied until I can buy 10k pizzas with 1 bitcoin.