A new ATH this month is maybe to much to expect (but I wouldnt be surprised at all). Thinking long term it would be better is this month would be just a consolidation of around $2500.
Yes, we need to have another retest of ATH, unless it breaks out decisively we are looking at couple more weeks of consolidation. However, even then I more positive then ever, that we are not going to see sub-1500 anytime soon. This bull trend is incredibly strong and once we retest lows one more time, we can resume the growth.
We could eventually even reach 5k USD/per bitcoin this year, who knows?
It is quite possible that the testing of the lows are done.
Even though there are attempts to keep the price down and even get below $2k, we keep trickling back up... up and up and up.
Might not be another down test until somewhere between $4k and $6k?
Perhaps you are right
I was merely stating an alternative scenario, and surely various scenarios (whether up or down) are a series of probabilities. So in that regard, I am just trying to say that your assertion of the down scenario that retests the previous lows (currently around $1,850 in the latest wave) seemed to be giving such retest of low scenario probabilities that were quite high from my perspective.
I mean, you in essence suggested that another test of the low was likely necessary before proceeding up, and gosh, we have already been testing lows and such further test does not seem like it has to take place in order to have enough UP fuel.
By the way, regarding the assertion of my response saying that we could be heading to the $4k to $6k arena before we get another correction, I am not very wedded to my assertion, but I am getting the sense that up is a bit more probable than down, and that down is not necessary in order to go up. Nonetheless, I also understand that anything can happen and we are a long way from $4k. In that regard, we still need to break through resistances that exist at $2,400 and at $2,600 and then at the ATH level of $2,760 and then in the $3,600 region in order to then get ourselves into the $4k to $6k price arena.
however, winter... weekend is coming. And we all know what happens during weekends... unless, some great info emerges, that would break back of bear whales.
There may be a tiny bit of a correlation of dumps on the weekend - but that kind of pattern is far from certain. We have also experienced pumps on weekend, especially during bull markets or bull trends. Do you recall in May of 2016, there were weekend pumps on 3 or 4 weekends in a row... by the time the fourth weekend came, people were starting to expect a weekend pump and then we got a dump instead.. hahahaha... So, again you seem to be assigning a quite high probability that a dump is going to occur soon and is necessary before proceeding up and that such a dump is likely for this weekend... maybe? maybe not.
I also find it very bullish, that predictions about resolution of bitcoin withdrawals in China proved to be correct. Before PBOC intervention, China was the market leader pushing the price up and being ahead of west by 5% on average. We should see that now again.
Previously China had received way too much credit for BTC price movements, and even with their previous exaggerated credit, they are not going to be returning to their old glory days any time soon because the various PBOC interventions of late 2016 that have been lasting until today, have shed considerable light on the fakery of the Chines BTC trade volume and the margin trading practices that exacerbated Chinese BTC trade volume fakery.
So you seem to be giving too much weight to a fantasy that did not really exist previously yet is even less likely to exist in the near future, due to some of the recent PBOC interventions.
This summer will be quite eventful.
There is no way that I can disagree with you. I believe in the past, summers had a tendency to become boring. A kind of pattern; however, currently with so much attention to alts and even the simultaneous bullish behavior of BTC prices, there is almost no way that the excitement level is going to drop off any time in the near future. We have so much activity and craziness going on right now in BTClandia and in Altcoinlandia that it is going to take several months to simmer down the amazing and exciting dynamics of this current situation.
