-snip-
what do you think about this:
- bitfinex fiat withdrawals are disabled
- people fear Gox specially with everyone repeating it online
- so they cancel fiat withdrawal and buy up bitcoin on bitfinex (price goes up)
- they withdraw bitcoin to other places (mostly bitstamp) and dump there (price goes down there)
- they withdraw their fiat out of fear.
this is more buy pressure on bitfinex and more sell pressure on stamp.
Those factors make sense in terms of current and recent development in market dynamics.
Bitfinex withdrawals are not completely disabled, merely the ones that were processed through Wellsfargo services, and it seems that this is actually legitimate, and not made up by bitfinex and something that they are working on fixing.
Sure some of your description of relevant additional factors even undermines my bitstamp whale theory (I mean the theory that no one is following the supposed bitstamp whale).
With these dynamics, we may need a few more days to see how these matters play out.
Sure sometimes there can be nepharious going on and sometimes there can be factors that are merely being attempted to be figured out.. and those factors affect price dynamics and some folks know about those price factors before other folks who are still trying to figure out dynamics.
But people get scared to do any withdraw on Bitfinex because they fear they might be other withdraws may be stopped too, and buy and transfer their Bitcoins to Bitstamp.
You know, fear is more powerful than facts sometimes and the financial markets are a little over reactive at times
It makes sense to pull out of any exchange with 'problems'. In a bank run (whether justified or not) only the first people in the queue get paid.
I've pulled out what I had on there already - I am sure they might well fix it, but I don't trust exchanges and it's probably wise not to.
You may be correct about some of this, including the incentive to pull out first and to pull out often.
However, these kinds of supposed "pull out" behaviors are not closely reflecte in the data... unless we really do see that bitfinex's overall trade volume begins to dry up.
At this point, they are supposedly converting their cash to bitcoins and transferring the bitcoins - yet, there still continues to be pretty decent sized trade volume on bitfinex.
Maybe that trade volume will dry up, and maybe not.. maybe some people (the braver ones) just end up advantaging from these arbitrage opportunities... because they are doing the opposite of what other folks are doing?
But people get scared to do any withdraw on Bitfinex because they fear they might be other withdraws may be stopped too, and buy and transfer their Bitcoins to Bitstamp.
You know, fear is more powerful than facts sometimes and the financial markets are a little over reactive at times
So why send their BTC on the exchange with the lowest bitcoin price ?
That is merely called panic, which is what happens when a large number of people act upon FUD
But people get scared to do any withdraw on Bitfinex because they fear they might be other withdraws may be stopped too, and buy and transfer their Bitcoins to Bitstamp.
You know, fear is more powerful than facts sometimes and the financial markets are a little over reactive at times
So why send their BTC on the exchange with the lowest bitcoin price ?
Exactly!!! Exchanges are like a necessary evil - until we get something else (maybe even better? who knows?).
Maybe we are stating the obvious, but sometimes it gets to be a bit irritating when posters suggest that all money should be removed from exchanges, and on a personal level those kinds of decisions can be all fine and dandy, but we would have a whole-hell-of-a-lot different bitcoin (and other crytpo currencies) market place if we had a world without exchanges....
Exchanges serve various functions and so in that sense, we have to deal with what is the actual dynamics (and that is exchanges) rather than wishing that they did not exist or some other fantasy world that does not currently exist.
Whats wrong with all those exchanges, they all have something nowadays. Strange prices, stucked coins, bank problems and lots of other strange things like whale manipulation and fake volume 
