Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17425. (Read 26709893 times)

The way I see the price movement now is that there is an underlying upward trend line that has a much lower price but due to the price having gone up for so long people are expecting that the price will continue rising at a good pace and are more willing to invest. If the price had been going down for the past year the current price would be down below that trend line by quite a bit.

With enough FUD to manage the expectations the price should continue going up at a reasonable pace no matter the news because the performance of the investment is so good.

If irrational exuberance kicked in and everyone thought that the new dawn of cryptocurrency across the world was about to occur with exponential price rises then we would definitely crash down and head into a downward cycle where people are dropping out just because of the direction of the price.

Having said that, my price point without the investment frenzy due to our current track record is about $900 currently. With that going up about $20 per month. I am not too hopeful that the price will go back down to there because by the time we get to another downward track record the underlying value (+$20 per month) would put us at current prices.

I think that you are missing some points, possibly.

BTC constitutes less than 30% of all of my quasi-liquid investments, and within my BTC portfolio, I buy BTC on the way down and I sell BTC on the way up, and currently within my BTC portfolio I have about 90% in BTC and 10% in dollars.   That can still add up to a lot of funds in dollars.

If BTC prices go down 50%, I will still probably have nearly 98% of my funds in BTC, and I try to never run out of dollars in order to buy BTC on the way down (so I allocate small portions to continue to have dollars and kind of anticipate up and down volatility, rather than straight down).  Further, if BTC goes up 4x, I will still likely have more than 85% in BTC.. It is like raking off the profits, but still having lots of BTC and end up having lots of dollars too.

 Funny how it works like that.  I don't think you can accomplish anything similar with your investment by having 100% in dollars?   makes no sense to me.

Sure, I could allocate in different proportions, but my system seems to work pretty good, and it was even working good when my BTC balance was floating between 93% and 98% - however, recently, I had some of my own issues that caused me to have my current 90% allocation, which is a bit more lopsided towards dollars than my overall preference.  I am constantly selling on the way up and constantly buying on the way down and reconsidering - which direction to tweak - but I do not take radical moves such as selling anymore than 5% at a time, even though I could foresee maybe selling a bit higher of a proportion if the market might seem to call for such.

Can someone here suggest the reasons why the price suddenly reach to 1209+$ in few 7-8 hours? Is there chances that it will touch 1400$ in the continuing streak? I have few orders to put on some Altcoins, if the bitcoin is suggested to rise then i will cut down my buy orders for altcoin. Any suggestions?

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previously when Bitcoins went to 1229$ I bought some altcoin @0.00009BTC , Just previous week i sold those altcoins @0.00031 , so it gave me a ~3.3 X profit.

Next twelve days 1100$ that's a lower support line ranging back almost 180 days ago. 800$ would rediscover a support line that began 9/2015 but got invalid around 10/17/16 a date when something fundamentally changed.

Are you aware that you are trying to rationalise against something that you are ALMOST doing? (there's not much difference between 90% and 100%).

I don't know if the price will go up or down.... just making a point about something I find a bit incoherent.

If you stay at these levels this month, I think there may be a rise in next May. But I think if I tell it from my own perspective, it can not protect this level much. It seems like we can see levels like $ 900 in a short while.

There could be some ways to rationally set up trades that bet 100% of your holdings, but to me, I am having difficulties imagining such, even in the hypothetical.

Sounds like a bit crazy kind of rationality to bet all in one direction that does not prepare for the possibility of the other direction in a system that is far from having probabilities of anywhere near 100% in either direction at any given time.

If you, or anyone else is able to explain a rational approach for such betting, the I would surely like to attempt to receive such edumacation.

Not even close 

Don't judge my rationality, bro.

$ 1200 was a pretty sale, soon it'll be time to rebuy

What do you mean by decent?

I am of the same conclusion regarding the performance being quite a bit greater than I had expected... but I am too chicken shit to sell any kind of "decent" amounts. 

Right now, I feel a little bit oversold because I have about 10% of my BTC allocated funds in cash.. I would feel a little bit better at 8% cash - however, I understand the feeling, and if the price suddenly goes down, then I wished I would have had 12% or greater in cash in order to be able to buy back.

what do people make of this?

https://twitter.com/lightningasic/status/850351212536803328

it's saying the chinese national grid is now inspecting people who buy power direct from power plants which is illegal and not the national grid, which is.

i dunno if this is huge or nothing or another government assertion of control. it seems a bit strange that power plants would be able to siphon stuff off on the side but i've long given up trying to figure out chinese practices.

I don't regret selling out a decent portion of my stack given the problems I foresee ahead, but I'll admit the Old Man is exceeding my expectations.

I'd be happy with a bit of sideways action in the 1200's too. Consolidation is a good thing.

The price pumped over $100 after last weekend, and if that pattern holds it could pump up to over $1300 by the end of next weekend. I'll be happy even if it goes sideways.

I agree with you overall in terms of the likely failure of the alt coins, and that they are largely used as pump and dumps.  I suppose I am just quibbling in regards to your dramatic presentation - and probably such quibbling is done in vain, since I cannot really have too much of an effect on that.

As you were, soldier.    

Just further proof that the economies of *all* these cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin included, are still insignificantly small. But hopefully one day that won't be the case as things before more distributed over time.

and mr wu our mining friend doesn't? they were on the verge of hitting 75% until he showed up once again. and the key words are user activated.

If one guy thinks he has that much pull in a crypto community (or tries to have), then it still is truly a small and insignificant economic market.

For the record, I don't have anything against coblee.

But coblee <> Litecoin (and yes I know who he is).

And they won't crash, not like that. It'll be a slow, painful, 'down, back up, and then more down' degradation road that will last for 6-12 months, maybe longer.  But the end result is the same.  Check back on them at the end of the year, people will be amazed how far down they can fall.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin stays honey badger. I still predict a ~1600 target by years end.  I guess we shall see.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/851135138876473344

Charlie Lee decides mining assholes have had enough fun. Possible uasf ahoy.

It'll be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Bitcoin could learn alot, even if it's a shocking mess.