Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?
No
I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish.
Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history:
December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%
Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario.
Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question.
It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there.
But...
December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%
was the Top of the 2 previous bullmarket. So seem to be quite difficult to compare with the current situation. As we are still in bear/side way market since +/- 2 years.
It's a fair point. It's the Bakkt scenario I'm more concerned about, that was after a strong bear market relief rally and months of consolidation (that turned into distribution) in the exact same time frame as this bear market. I highly doubt price would fall further than 60%, because as you said this isn't the peak of a bull market, but who's to say there won't be a run to $50K soon because an ETF approval.
Overall price increasing on an approval is more or less a given I believe, unless something disastrous happens during that period. Look at what happened when Greyscale won against the SEC, that wasn't even an approval and price spiked up by 5% within an hour based on positive news. I therefore don't really see how an ETF could launch without price first dramatically increasing based on the approval news.
So for me the two scenarios go hand in hand. The reason price dumps after a product launch is because the price dramatically increased leading up to it.
Globally agree with you, but we can still say, concerning BAKKT timing (september 2019), we had a REAL bear market rally. We went almost back to 14K$ in summer 2019. In comparaison, it's the 'same' if we went to 50K$, but we just did x2 from the bottom to 31K (and in a "below 200WMA scenario" for months, below previous ATH etc.). In 2018-2019, in a 'less' negative price scenario, we did almost x5 (3K to 14K). Bigger correction at this time seem 'normal'.
Well, he did edit.. but apparently to make the twitter link better? smh.. you can't make this stuff up.
