Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17929. (Read 26709135 times)

The best bet in the long run is determined by whatever you believe makes up the base of Exter's pyramid:



I personally don't see bitcoin occupying the same bottom slot as monetary metals so it would have to be one higher on the same level as fiat.  We live in a closed ecosystem and the blockchain for metals was created by two neutron stars colliding, so unless you can replicate that, it's not very easy to tamper with the metals blockchain.  People spam the word "anti-fragile" for Bitcoin, but it's just not in the same category of security as requiring two neutron stars to alter.  As you can see, Exter's pyramid is mostly a scale of real anti-fragility.

People like Bitcoin because they look at it as a free money tree of upward growth.  Assuming the market cap had topped out on both metals and bitcoin and you were forced to go all-in on one, which one are you going to pick?  The aggregate market will likely gravitate towards the most anti-fragile solution in that case if the upside is tapped out.  The only reason people hold Bitcoin instead is because they believe it can have higher yield in the short term as a speculative instrument.

Since less than 1% of people own metals, and even less own Bitcoin, they both have a lot of speculative upside.  It's all about measuring the risk and upside vs one another.  Metals do have huge upside of probably around $5000-$20,000 for an ounce of gold and $166-$1333 for an ounce of silver in current purchasing power.  This would be an average of a +10.6x for gold and +45x for silver.  This means Bitcoin needs to have greater than a 10-45x upside ($8840 - $39,600 per coin) for you to consider it since the risk is higher.

To flatten out some of the noise here, let's assume partipants are 50/50 gold silver split and give you a +27.5x gain.  In that case, Bitcoin would need to have upside potential of $24,200 per coin to be worth holding as a long term investment and not day trading (as of market prices today).  Without Lightning network or a block size increase, I think Bitcoin might get stuck in the $10k-20k range.  So you have these two variables in bitcoin throwing a big monkey wrench into what potential price can be.

Anyway, as you can see from my numbers, it is difficult to advocate a 100% all-in position on Bitcoin with 0 metals even if you are a crazed gambler seeking maximum yield.  If you fall in that category of seeking max yield while still having some type of safety, you would likely be something like 50% metals 50% bitcoin at most, or even 70% metals 30% bitcoin due to the risks involved.  (Notice I did say you need to be a crazed gambler to have 30-50% of your money in Bitcoin).

Sometimes it is difficult to determine if it is going to stop or if the friggen bears still have moar coins to dump.

In the first leg of the dump from $1090 to $890, I bought some at $900 and some at $925.  I had some technical difficulties that is why I had the second purchase at $925. 

Then I sold all of the $900 coins and some of the $925 coins above $1000 - before we got the second dump, which I bought at $880, and I thought it was over..  but then we got the third dump from $880 to $812 and then I was getting a bit nervous about buying at that level because I had blown quite a bit of my wadd at $880 without selling them back... and I also wanted to be prepared, just in case we go below $780 or lower (who knows).    In the last couple of days, at least I was able to sell all of the $880 coins... but I still have some of my $925 ones that I have not yet been able to sell... not really a big deal because the $925 coins is only the equivalent of about 1% of my total stash, and I did sell quite a few of the other coins above $925, so it may not really be a big deal if I sell some above $880 and below $925 and still be profitable... if needed.. which I probably will just wait it out, even if we were to get stuck in some kind of sub $800 price scenario for a while, it will likely all get worked out with some additional trades in the future.

At some point, if I am not able to sell my $925 coins above $925, then it may just be administratively easier to just remove those calculations from my figuring of future actions and just fold them into my holdings and restructure my future trades without accounting for whether some coins were bought higher.. blah blah blah... In the end, I know how many coins that I have at any given time and how much fiat I have put into the system and therefore I know the average costs per BTC according to those numbers and my spreadsheet adjusts accordingly, even if every single trade was not as profitable as it could have been. 

quite frankly i was just starting to get used to that nice steady sideways thing.
now these damn speed bumps are killin me...

It was only a month ago I was advising someone to close his sell order at $780. A month later and its crashed to $880. If this is the bottom it's up $100 from a month ago.

I'm not sure about the time frame might take a couple of weeks maybe of not much movement. But I'm feeling comfortable about the bottom too. Looking forward to next week.

cover your sells.

yes i was canceling orders, hitting market, and cashing price like a mad fool too... was fun.


dang there goes 880

I'm working with the assumption that it wasn't a correction, more like a unavoidable bear trap, i expect a pretty fast recovery back over 1000$ ( within a week ) and continue to rally toward 1337 ( in a couple weeks ) and beyond ( moon ).

Are you currently referring to covering shorts or longs?

I just buy as the price goes down.. unless it looks like it is going down in extreme fashion, then I attempt to cancel as many of my buy orders as I can and then maybe buy some of those at a lower price, if I am able to get to a computer while such a thing is happening, which happened when the price dropped from the $1090s arena down to $890 within about an hour. 

Luckily I was alerted early during the $1090 to $890 drop because the extremity of the drop became apparent in less than 10 minutes into it.  But if you cannot get to a computer, then you just gotta live with whatever you have preset... and maybe attempt to regroup afterwards.

I don't see too much going wrong, probably more sideways consolidation? We've already had our major correction / dump a couple of days ago.

if you aren't done covering in the next few minutes you're fucked.

check this thread periodically while trading to incress your stress levels

Probably the terminology does not matter too much is we are understanding what we are talking about.

I think that part of the point that I was attempting to make is that I just stagger or step my trades all along the spectrum and all the way up the ladder and then generally all the way back down, as compared with what you were saying that you pulled out your wallet of bitcoin's and began to enter a few staggerings in the $1,100s, which ended up being a decent strategy and may have even been better if the price had gone high enough in order to execute all of your sell orders - then pretty much you got a pretty decent interim play very near the top of this particular cycle.



Even though we may have some tendencies to feel some regrets about we could have played a bit higher stakes, to me, I don't really want to try that kind of bigger stakes strategy because it really does not seem to work too well for my stress levels.

On the other hand, I do attempt to learn from what I could have maybe done a little bit better in order to increase some of my comfort levels.  For this particular correction (that may not be over yet), I went through my various BTC trading accounts, and I restructured a large number of my orders under a new tweaked framework that pretty much caused the spreads to be considerably larger.... and yeah, I will probably tweak those spreads a bit more in the future, but it seems that this new tweaked strategy should at least last me for several months into the future - absent some other erratic  BTC price movements that don't end up being captured in the parameters of expectations that allowed by my new set-up.

this doesn't look good

everytime i think it can fly away market pisses on my dreams 

What attribute do you believe monetary metals possess that is not possessed by cryptocurrencies? From my understanding, crypto is the better bet. After all, we can hide an unlimited amount of it in secure fashion.

In understand your assertions. I certainly acknowledge the desire of TPTB to control it all. I just don't think they will be successful. A decade ago, discussing the true nature of partial reserve banking had one labeled as a loon. Now there is a portion of the population that understands. The tighter the grip, the more the resistance.

You mean presaging the runup to $266? OK, then. Mea culpa.

Yes. Likely similar to what I refer to above as 'laddered day trading'. (I'm likely not conversant with trading vernacular - that's just my term).


Well, of course selling only at the top would be a better strategy ... if only there were some way to make this strategy realizable. But there ain't. C'est la guerre.

Already up to my eyeballs in coins.  I just think the danger of a digital only currency is higher than possible benefits, so if playing god, I would likely just destroy it and institute physical silver and gold as the currency.  It seems people want to go through the motions and see what happens with this digital currency thing even though it's pretty obvious what's going to happen.  The only way it's not going to happen is if the government magically ceases to exist before they co-opt it, which is possible but not very likely.  The legal system and men with guns always trumps whatever you're doing with this stuff.  

So you then need to examine the applicability of utilizing Bitcoin only in a black market context compared to using metals in the same situation.  It did work on the silk road in the past, but that did not afford it a high market cap and the government would likely clamp down on it at the ISP level or something to prevent it from being anything more.  Meanwhile, it's very difficult for them to stop use of metals no matter what the law is.  So, as I was saying, the easiest way for you to maximize profit in Bitcoin is to hope that it is a government trojan horse, otherwise it will be a rough trip and no "guaranteed moonshot".