I will admit that I am quite surprised by our current state of bitcoin.. because if you look back at my posts, I was continuing to say that I expected a pretty decent probabilistic chance of a price correction sometime after lower $600s either before reaching the mid $800s or even more probabilistically before reaching $900... and I will admit that I have been proven wrong, or at least BTC prices went into an area that I considered to be less probabilistic (more bullish).
I also said on several occasions, once we pass mid to upper $800s, that we are likely to go straight (more or less) into the $3k to $5k price territory. Since we got from lower $600 to lower $900s without any meaningful correction, I am now thinking that it is going to be a bit more difficult to get into the $3k to $5k price territory without a meaningful price correction. I am going to have to revise my thinking.. so at this time, I am thinking maybe tentatively that if we do not get a meaningful correction before passing old ATH ($1163), then probably our top for this run would be in the $1,900 to $3,500 arena)..
bitcoin doesnt like to do any serious retraces when its in bull mode.
IMO, crossing $940-960 this week would lead to an ATH, and perhaps a peak of 1300-2600. Its pretty bullish, and im not doing any leverage (just HODL), but i dont expect it to peak beyond $2600 (in this rally), and a rally to those levels would probably crash back down to the 900-1200 range for many more months of recovery and profit taking
im trying not to go full bull and leverage my holdings - weve seen in the past that it doesnt take much to make it rally or crash irrationally at the drop of a hat (or attack of the bearwhale)
The last week running up to the last ATH had irrational ups and downs that must have margin called some leveraged traders. HODLing is safer and less stressful.
I agree with at least three inferred statements from the two response posts: 1) a bitcoin bull run will likely have a lot of exponential upside without significant periods of correction (and any correction is not a necessary condition in order to experience additional exponential upside), 2) in any exponential upside trend, there could be some short periods of price correction, such as bear traps (accordingly we should prepare for such possibilities) and 3) it is not necessary to employ leveraging in order to make a lot of money with bitcoin as long as you maintain a kind of long term position to attempt to accumulate bitcoin and to HODL through various corrections (whether small, large, anticipated or not).