[edited out]
spot on
one caveat: fundamentally we don't know what will be the catalyst exactly, but any sort of conclusion of the "scaling" debate will do. Might even be a - lo and behold - successfull hardfork to unlimited
That's nonsense. There's not going to be any hardfork to unlimited or any kind of hard blocksize limit increase in the near future.
The blocksize limit scaling debate is going to go on and on and on, but at the moment, it is essentially addressed with seg wit and some other changes that are in bitcoin's immediate pipeline. In other words, we are likely to get exponential increases in price without any kind of hard increase in the blocksize because that is just a largely fictional problem that folks are largely coming to realize as the fiction that it is.