Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18276. (Read 26609126 times)

monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly.  also bearish through at least mid-September.  supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224

assuming the Bitfinex debacle is over is mistake in my opinion.

Your monkey would do better trades if you blindfolded it, and got it to throw darts at a newspaper stock listing. Buy the stocks the darts hit and you will outperform both amateur and professional traders.

A Princeton University economist (Burton Malkiel) developed a theory that a blindfolded monkey throwing random darts could outperform professional traders. Forbes tested the theory every two months, and the monkey won.

Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks

Yeah, the monkey underperforms in BTC relative to other instruments, but he still outperforms me, if I interpret him correctly, and does represent a slight edge.  I don't have enough data (or time) to quantify the edge, but I guess its about 5-8%.  Consequently my sizing is small in BTC.  In SPX, UST, GLD, OIL, JPY, EUR, he does much better (or my interpretive skills are better, mutatis mutandis) -- about a 15-20% edge.  I have enough data to quantify that, but haven't bothered.

You will notice that I said I was not going to trade with the monkey in January.  It turns out that was the right call.  This time I am trading with the monkey, and time will tell.  So far he has me up about 4% since Saturday, on that small position.  XMR on the other hand has been a rocketsled up the mountain.

Consider Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel's "efficient markets theory." In his 1973 book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," Mr. Malkiel argued that if the market is truly efficient and a share price reflects all factors immediately as soon as they're made public, a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper stock listing should do as well as any investment professional.

Every two months we test this theory. Four amateurs, four professionals and the monkey go up against the market, as measured by the Morgan Stanley Capital Index for Europe.

Amateurs, professionals and the monkey have now completed three rounds of competition from July 2000 through May 2001. If percentage gains are converted into dartboard points, the monkey has moved into the lead with 13.3 points, followed by the professionals with 4.4 points, and the amateurs with -81.22.

Your monkey was bearish last January, but the price had doubled within six months. Your monkey is a crap trader and needs sacking. If he says sell it's probably best to buy. If the price doubles again within six months will you permanently sack your monkey?

I preferred the high 700 eurphoria.

This is pretty shitty and I'm usually bullish but getting a bit pissed off. I will as usual keep hodling but halving done and not much coming up isn't looking that great. I wouldn't write off seeing the 400s again between now and Christmas.

Someone tell otherwise.

This bull isn't overly bullish at this moment in time.

Based on your own feelings (described as fear at this point), it seems that you are attempting to mock some common points of wisdom, specifically to attempt to not become too emotional regarding either your investment or your investment choices.

Do you really believe that advice, regarding keeping emotions out of your trades to be bad advice?

Yes, I will concede that humans have emotions, and even if you program some bot trading, you are still emotionally attached to your investment in some degree, otherwise you would not have spent time considering it and making such investments.

I doubt that anyone is really suggesting that you should be a bot or have no human emotions in respect to your investment, but over time, you should be able to establish systems (whether it is buy/ HODLing or trading) in which you have a general plan for no matter which direction the market goes.  Maybe you do not know every single specific of your plan because sometimes the plan may be that you need to review your plan and to reconsider your plan at various points and upon the triggering of certain events.

Anyhow, part of my point is that you can establish ways to attempt to minimize emotions..

I only use myself as an example because I am able to talk about my own situation, and surely from time to time, I feel emotions when the price moves against me and when it is very volatile, because a person cannot really know when it is going to stop in one direction or another, and even with myself, my built in assumption over time is that bitcoin prices are going to go up.  Therefore, I structure my strategy in such a way that my whole portfolio does better when prices go up, so yeah, my portfolio was doing fucking great all the way up to $779, and it is not in as great of shape at $566 as it was at $779.

Anyhow, I do have to reconfigure from time to time, and I attempt to be prepared for the price to go down in considerable ways, even if it were to return to the $200s.. though of course, matters are much better going up rather than down, and less down is better than a lot down.. yet  overall staying above the mid-$00s is good, too.   

I guess my main points is to prepare mentally and to prepare with your portfolio with a plan that is suitable for you, and if you are becoming extremely emotional, that is likely a sign that you have over invested either in one direction or another.. so you may need to tweak your holdings in order to remove some of the anxiety that is being evoked by the then current situation.

Got ~23 bux already. Just $562,999,977 to go :\

This is pretty shitty and I'm usually bullish but getting a bit pissed off. I will as usual keep hodling but halving done and not much coming up isn't looking that great. I wouldn't write off seeing the 400s again between now and Christmas.

Someone tell otherwise.

monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly.  also bearish through at least mid-September.  supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224

FYI monkey now thinks BTC is broken. Short for 1 month, at least.  I am not trading this (except to rotate into XMR), but neither do I accumulate.

miners are like the honey-badger... they don't give a shit:

One likely caused the other...

but which?   

I preferred the high 700 eurphoria.

This is pretty shitty and I'm usually bullish but getting a bit pissed off. I will as usual keep hodling but halving done and not much coming up isn't looking that great. I wouldn't write off seeing the 400s again between now and Christmas.

Someone tell otherwise.

This bull isn't overly bullish at this moment in time.

I'm not so convinved that we've seen the last dip.
Sure we've bounced back pretty nice,but the downwards trend still is active.
The next days could be quite volatile.Traders will have fun.

Any minute now the NSA will be market buying a million bitcoins. Any minute now...
 
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/hackers-hack-nsa-linked-equation-group