The price is climbing quite fast now, presumably because lots of people are buying while the price is low. But do we really think that's the end of it, a quick dip in price, fast recovery and job done? I hope I'm not being silly by waiting to see what Binfinex say about their plans for going forward before I jump on the buy-in bandwagon. If I've missed the chance to buy at $550 I'll kick myself. But I can't help feeling there's another drop ahead. Such a shock to the markets surely can't be recovered from so quickly, can it?
Why not? Past events have shown that exchange hacks bigger than this didn't kill bitcoin. Why should there be a prolonged downtrend? I don't think the stolen coins will be sold on other exchanges (that matter in terms of volume) due to chain-analysis and blacklisting. The hackers may be satisfied with the profit they made due to market manipulation.
Let's see, it may be just a dead cat bounce, but I guess it may be the start of a new uptrend unfolding. Rising above 600 in the next few days(or weeks) could give the people a lot of confidence in the resilience of bitcoin, which may spark the next big rally.
I never suggested the hack would "kill bitcoin". i have no doubt that Bitcoin will quickly recover to at least where it was before. I just mean that this seems too fast, like in the movies when a character thinks the bad guy's dead so they turn their back, and then the bad guy comes at them with another attack. I think it's too early to be sighing with relief just yet.
The reason I stated the fact that bitcoin didn't get killed(at least yet) due to large hacks in the past was to make my point about why there may not be a need for prolonged downtrend. See, after the goxxing nobody knew how the market would react to a hack of this magnitude, there was a feeling of doom hanging over bitcoin, so the possibility of bitcoin slowly dying was very prevalent . I think this uncertainty was a large reason for the long bearmarket that followed. It took a long time for confidence to come back, but I think it's reasonable to say, that bitcoin recovered from that blow.
Now with the bitfinex hack, the market already had experienced such a scenario from which it recovered. There is much more confidence in the resilience of bitcoin now than it was in the past. That's why I think this time around, the downtrend may only be short in comparison to the last time.
Why do you think it could be happing too fast? Is it just a feeling you have or does it also have a rational basis?
Just for clarification, I am not recommending to buy into it right now, but wouldn't sell either. I am in this for the long term and don't actively trade.
