Also Bitcoin Block Average size looks ok
https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/AVBLS-Bitcoin-Average-Block-Size
Normal days
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18429. (Read 26711650 times)
July 22, 2016, 01:23:47 AM
It has been a week BTC is trading in a 20$ spread range ($660/680) with several stops on the triple six number.
Also Bitcoin Block Average size looks ok
https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/AVBLS-Bitcoin-Average-Block-Size
Normal days
Also Bitcoin Block Average size looks ok
https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/AVBLS-Bitcoin-Average-Block-Size
Normal days
July 22, 2016, 12:41:22 AM
Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean for the bitcorn?
How can they calculate the odds of someone being president?
If I want to calculate the odds of a coin gives heads, I flip lots of times the coins and see the frequency of results, but how can I make the next presidential elections several times to see the frequency of Trump being elected?
Yes, the variables are more complicated with presidential elections as compared with coin tosses and the probabilities of events are more complicated than just yes or no (even though there are two most likely outcomes) because the actual outcome accounts for the choices of millions of person in 50 states, but it is the same idea as a coin toss to calculate all the variables and come up with a conclusion that may or may not be correct based on whether you gave sufficient weight to all the variables and properly identified material variables that would affect the outcome.
In this case, it is probably more than 95% likely that Chesthing is wrong in his exact calculation of the material events and actual probabilities, but he probably has at least a 50% chance in being correct in his final conclusion since there are two most likely outcomes (which is either Clinton or Trump), at least at the moment.
July 22, 2016, 12:08:48 AM
Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean for the bitcorn?
How can they calculate the odds of someone being president?
If I want to calculate the odds of a coin gives heads, I flip lots of times the coins and see the frequency of results, but how can I make the next presidential elections several times to see the frequency of Trump being elected?
July 21, 2016, 09:38:56 PM
The rest of it is interesting but not where I intended to go in a bitcoin trading thread.
FYI, I'm in the everett many worlds interpretation camp, if that helps ya.
Then surely you know of Sean Carroll
Of course!
he's one of my heroes, along with brian greene, greg maxwell, pieter wuille, peter todd ...
July 21, 2016, 08:43:47 PM
determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth
and so i say:
Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.
Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next closest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.
does it really make any difference if the next possible outcome is chosen by true randomness or a predetermined set of random?
the end result is the same, we get an immutable chain of events which no one can really control.
i guess your suggestion that the future cannot be predicted because of the true randomness factor.
it would be interesting to understand how they have determined that true randomness actually exists...
not sure what you mean by a 'predetermined set of random', but I'll assume you mean a fixed probability distribution .
Either way, the outcome is not as you said: 'for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.'
The rest of it is interesting but not where I intended to go in a bitcoin trading thread.
FYI, I'm in the everett many worlds interpretation camp, if that helps ya.
Then surely you know of Sean Carroll
July 21, 2016, 08:33:43 PM
Price seems to have lost a lot of steam. Sideways for months again maybe? Which wouldn't be bad thought if we can keep these levels without major dumping action.
At least from an investor point of view.
As a active trader this is horrible.
At least from an investor point of view.
As a active trader this is horrible.
Agreed, boring sideways action since the halving. A lot of people felt the halving was a big let down albeit the huge gains from the start of 2016. Kinda shows how people anticipate movement in bitcoin ya know?
"well geez it's bitcoin its gotta go up 10x!"
Having said that I will admit I am a hypocrite and I expect price to go up substantially in the coming months. Wasn't that the way the last halving went? Small gains around the actual halving followed by huge spikes later on?
July 21, 2016, 08:30:49 PM
Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean ... ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11679253 Buy a ticket to win an Island.?
July 21, 2016, 08:28:37 PM
Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean for the bitcorn?
July 21, 2016, 08:06:34 PM
You used the Molasses Disaster already. Like a year ago I think...
It should be used by everyone, at least once a year. 21 people died needlessly [and very slowly -ed]. Swept [very slowly -ed] beneath a [very slowly -ed] 40-foot wave of molasses.
The Great Molasses Disaster Memorial Day was a US national holiday, until the government renamed it Martin Luther King day as a part of a backroom deal with Equal Rights Agitators back in the 60s. That's a shame, because like Future President Trump once said, those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.
I like the way you work it. No diggity. I got to bag it up.
July 21, 2016, 07:59:01 PM
You used the Molasses Disaster already. Like a year ago I think...
It should be used by everyone, at least once a year. 21 people died needlessly [and very slowly -ed]. Swept [very slowly -ed] beneath a [very slow -ed] 40-foot wave of molasses.
The Great Molasses Disaster Memorial Day used to be a US national holiday, until the government renamed it Martin Luther King day as a part of a backroom deal with Equal Rights Agitators back in the 60s. That's a shame, because like Future President Trump once said, those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.
July 21, 2016, 07:49:57 PM
The next President, Trump, is about to speak. Bitcoin will explode upward during/after his speech! ;-)
July 21, 2016, 07:47:56 PM
July 21, 2016, 07:40:02 PM
Hahaha... and China proves again.. they don't give a F'ak about any damn Westerosi shills... 
*Edit:
*Edit:
July 21, 2016, 07:38:34 PM
determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth
and so i say:
Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.
Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next closest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.
does it really make any difference if the next possible outcome is chosen by true randomness or a predetermined set of random?
the end result is the same, we get an immutable chain of events which no one can really control.
i guess your suggestion that the future cannot be predicted because of the true randomness factor.
it would be interesting to understand how they have determined that true randomness actually exists...
not sure what you mean by a 'predetermined set of random', but I'll assume you mean a fixed probability distribution .
Either way, the outcome is not as you said: 'for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.'
The rest of it is interesting but not where I intended to go in a bitcoin trading thread.
FYI, I'm in the everett many worlds interpretation camp, if that helps ya.
July 21, 2016, 07:34:19 PM
^Worst Statue of Liberty cosplay ever.
and this is the slowest, weakest drop ever.
"Molasses, waist deep, covered the street and [very slowly -ed] swirled and bubbled about the wreckage ... Here and there [very slowly -ed] struggled a form—whether it was animal or human being was impossible to tell. Only an upheaval, a [very slowly -ed] thrashing about in the [very slow -ed] sticky mass, showed where any life was ... Horses [very slowly -ed] died like so many flies on sticky fly-paper. The more they struggled [very slowly -ed], the deeper in the mess they were [very slowly -ed] ensnared. Human beings—men and women—suffered likewise [very slowly -ed]."--wikipedia
and this is the slowest, weakest drop ever.
"Molasses, waist deep, covered the street and [very slowly -ed] swirled and bubbled about the wreckage ... Here and there [very slowly -ed] struggled a form—whether it was animal or human being was impossible to tell. Only an upheaval, a [very slowly -ed] thrashing about in the [very slow -ed] sticky mass, showed where any life was ... Horses [very slowly -ed] died like so many flies on sticky fly-paper. The more they struggled [very slowly -ed], the deeper in the mess they were [very slowly -ed] ensnared. Human beings—men and women—suffered likewise [very slowly -ed]."--wikipedia
You used the Molasses Disaster already. Like a year ago I think...
Edit: you and your personal automobiles. Learn to ankle it like the rest of us
July 21, 2016, 07:32:57 PM
Price seems to have lost a lot of steam. Sideways for months again maybe? Which wouldn't be bad thought if we can keep these levels without major dumping action.
At least from an investor point of view.
As a active trader this is horrible.
At least from an investor point of view.
As a active trader this is horrible.
July 21, 2016, 07:12:07 PM
^Worst Statue of Liberty cosplay ever.
and this is the slowest, weakest drop ever.
"Molasses, waist deep, covered the street and [very slowly -ed] swirled and bubbled about the wreckage ... Here and there [very slowly -ed] struggled a form—whether it was animal or human being was impossible to tell. Only an upheaval, a [very slowly -ed] thrashing about in the [very slow -ed] sticky mass, showed where any life was ... Horses [very slowly -ed] died like so many flies on sticky fly-paper. The more they struggled [very slowly -ed], the deeper in the mess they were [very slowly -ed] ensnared. Human beings—men and women—suffered likewise [very slowly -ed]."--wikipedia
and this is the slowest, weakest drop ever.
"Molasses, waist deep, covered the street and [very slowly -ed] swirled and bubbled about the wreckage ... Here and there [very slowly -ed] struggled a form—whether it was animal or human being was impossible to tell. Only an upheaval, a [very slowly -ed] thrashing about in the [very slow -ed] sticky mass, showed where any life was ... Horses [very slowly -ed] died like so many flies on sticky fly-paper. The more they struggled [very slowly -ed], the deeper in the mess they were [very slowly -ed] ensnared. Human beings—men and women—suffered likewise [very slowly -ed]."--wikipedia
July 21, 2016, 07:06:27 PM
Or is he?
What hast thou done, with thy huddled masses? Oh! Tender cousins.
July 21, 2016, 06:45:17 PM
Fair is foul, and foul is fair.
Here... I have a pilot’s thumb... Got it ... right here. 
Or is he?
(It's not the price, it's the volume...)
July 21, 2016, 06:16:58 PM
its always the same, exactly in that moment that you think you could die out of boredom something is brewing
Fair is foul, and foul is fair.
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