Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18529.

shmadz

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Activity: 1512

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@theshmadz

Quote from: dumbfbrankings on June 22, 2016, 10:43:58 PM

Quote from: BitUsher on June 22, 2016, 09:54:36 PM

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming ~~april~~ july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

So you don't attribute any weight to the fact that bitcoin was trading at double the cost of production? It's all about blocksize debate?

shmadz

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Activity: 1512

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@theshmadz

Quote from: Wladestaucs on June 22, 2016, 10:33:03 PM

Quote from: shmadz on June 22, 2016, 10:08:57 PM

Quote from: Wladestaucs on June 22, 2016, 10:00:39 PM

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

Thanks for the hook-up on the calculator and the new info on the AntMiner.

I like "as low as possible for as long as possible." When it got to $700 I felt some FOMO kicking in, but wisely didn't buy in then, or at all.

After playing around with the calculators, after the Halvening drops the reward to 12.5, it looks like one could be reasonably satisfied mining 0.5 BTC per month with one of those AntMiners. They're sold out, but w/e, this is all just speculation anyway.

If I was hooked up to a pool and paid a 4% fee, then after paying power costs I'd be looking at around 0.33 BTC per month in profit. That's about 4 BTC per year for one machine. With the cost of a machine ATM being 4.218 BTC, it looks like it'd take about 13 months to ROI into the black. But then that doesn't take into account what happens to the difficulty over time, so...hmm.

My approximation then is that for BTC to be even remotely profitable, my thinking is that BTC's price needs to be higher than $100. Much higher. Even 5x higher. Am I mistaken? Maybe I don't have enough insight.

you can't place any confidence in those long-term predictions. anything more than a couple months out is worse than speculation, that's just dreaming. if there is profit to be had, then the hash rate will increase up until the point where it wipes out those profits. also if you're consistently pulling 1500 W from a 15 amp 110 V plug you will burn out more than just your miner, you'll have sockets overheating and melting down, circuit breakers will be breaking, etc...

I guess the real point I'm trying to make is that if there is profit to be made
then that profit margin will be filled by increased competition and your profits will disappear, eventually. if you can get your hands on that latest gear you might do okay for about six months but you better make enough during that time to pay off your expenditure PLUS enough profit to outlay the risk and your own time, not to mention the extreme heat and noise...

dumbfbrankings

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: BitUsher on June 22, 2016, 09:54:36 PM

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming ~~april~~ july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

spooderman

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1029

in case anyone is looking for a reason

BREXIT

my conclusion is that if brexit happens, resources for things like bitcoin will dry up.

an ill wind blows nobody any good.

DaRude

legendary

Activity: 2833

Merit: 1851

In order to dump coins one must have coins

Quote from: bitjanja on June 22, 2016, 10:04:08 PM

all these speculation, eth being a cause, conspiranoia, cia, illuminati... so lol.

i like a lot btc, but from reading this forum i realize most ppl here are real fanatics on a promised winning lottery ticket. (scary shit)

i dont know if this huge ath will happen before halving, or in 5 years 30k, or never, but seems to me the ones reallly making profit are the ones doubling their money from pump to dump. and this is the reason behind this volatility, not complicated theories about 3 guys on ether and secret illuminati agendas. just profit, a huge power indeed!

and those with the "btc will save us all" thing... nah i dont buy it, seems to me u are just for the lottery big price thing too (just not realizing)

meantime, ill be sure not to get hypnotized with this folks btc church and quickly pump n dump like the smart ones.. at least il try. On the other side, after i do that ill be buying in again, for now. Wink

There's a lot of fanaticism around BTC, but beyond that, the pump was lead by China and so was the dump. If anyone can explain how buying a bunch of coins in $700+ range and dumping them under $600 can get you rich i'm all ears. From what i've seen it didn't cause havoc and there was no chance to rebuy lower, a basic factor for profitable pump and dump

Wladestaucs

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Quote from: shmadz on June 22, 2016, 10:08:57 PM

Quote from: Wladestaucs on June 22, 2016, 10:00:39 PM

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

Thanks for the hook-up on the calculator and the new info on the AntMiner.

I like "as low as possible for as long as possible." When it got to $700 I felt some FOMO kicking in, but wisely didn't buy in then, or at all.

After playing around with the calculators, after the Halvening drops the reward to 12.5, it looks like one could be reasonably satisfied mining 0.5 BTC per month with one of those AntMiners. They're sold out, but w/e, this is all just speculation anyway.

If I was hooked up to a pool and paid a 4% fee, then after paying power costs I'd be looking at around 0.33 BTC per month in profit. That's about 4 BTC per year for one machine. With the cost of a machine ATM being 4.218 BTC, it looks like it'd take about 13 months to ROI into the black. But then that doesn't take into account what happens to the difficulty over time, so...hmm.

My approximation then is that for BTC to be even remotely profitable, my thinking is that BTC's price needs to be higher than $100. Much higher. Even 5x higher. Am I mistaken? Maybe I don't have enough insight.

SheHadMANHands

legendary

Activity: 1168

Merit: 1000

Maybe this is just a second "slap in the face" for the market, similar to the mini-bubble up to ~$500 and consolidation that followed. Market is expecting sharp, rapid rises that can sustain for some time (like on two occasions in 2013). But there's far more volume traded today, and avenues to profit from a short position, even indirectly (eth/btc). Invisible hand keeps telling market it's too anxious, as it widely over and undershoots the "true" price. Cheesy

glendall

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1018

Buzz App - Spin wheel, farm rewards

A 540 bottom would be fine Mr Bitcoin. Just keep on headed in the right direction, that's good now, keep goin' Mr Bitcoin...

shmadz

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

@theshmadz

Quote from: Wladestaucs on June 22, 2016, 10:00:39 PM

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

bitjanja

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

all these speculation, eth being a cause, conspiranoia, cia, illuminati... so lol.

i like a lot btc, but from reading this forum i realize most ppl here are real fanatics on a promised winning lottery ticket. (scary shit)

i dont know if this huge ath will happen before halving, or in 5 years 30k, or never, but seems to me the ones reallly making profit are the ones doubling their money from pump to dump. and this is the reason behind this volatility, not complicated theories about 3 guys on ether and secret illuminati agendas. just profit, a huge power indeed!

and those with the "btc will save us all" thing... nah i dont buy it, seems to me u are just for the lottery big price thing too (just not realizing)

meantime, ill be sure not to get hypnotized with this folks btc church and quickly pump n dump like the smart ones.. at least il try. On the other side, after i do that ill be buying in again, for now. Wink

Wladestaucs

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

BitUsher

legendary

Activity: 994

Merit: 1035

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

RGR991

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Squeeze the hell out of it, My 560 purchase doesn't look so bad after all Tongue

Wyld

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

oh ~~god~~ China let it be over

RGR991

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

A factor may have been ETH soaring the past few days right after everyone shorted it because of the "hack attack"..people may have been forced to sell BTC to cover their margin calls on short positions on ETH, coupled with the fact that the BTC price was sky high with no real support levels / Bitfinex was acting like Mt.Gox and there was a massive 20k coin "auction"

Maybe Roll Eyes

SheHadMANHands

legendary

Activity: 1168

Merit: 1000

this seems rational if someone discovered some incredible exploit. otherwise... nah

Bitcoin's value prop was always tied more to the application of "money", the strongest of network effects, than Solidity like smart contracts. Reputation damage by association? Arguably... but Bitcoin market has never appeared to give any shits about Bitcoin's reputation, whether that be a consensus portrayed in mainstream media or elsewhere.

jojo69

legendary

Activity: 3374

Merit: 4738

diamond-handed zealot

DaRude

legendary

Activity: 2833

Merit: 1851

In order to dump coins one must have coins

Quote from: Ted E. Bare on June 22, 2016, 09:01:57 PM

I don't see how the shorters can profit much from this. They have to buy back in, to close their positions, and there are not too many coins for sale.

Yeah can't imagine anyone profiting much here. Unless we hear that China banning BTC tomorrow, i'm a bit baffled by this move

arklan

legendary

Activity: 1778

Merit: 1008

*looks out window* huh... the sky is falling...

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

This b better go back up right above 700 soon enough.

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