Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1879. (Read 26610941 times)
June 23, 2023, 02:01:19 PM
June 23, 2023, 01:59:33 PM
Please re-launch that chopper @vroom
what do you think about this version of the chopper until we reach a new ath?
edit: please note the incredible small file size, only 67kb
June 23, 2023, 01:09:46 PM
interesting video short:
this one is for JJG:
Nearly every bitcoin only daily DCA’er is now in profit, no matter when they first started dollar cost averaging.
https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1672245387183243264
Quote
Bitcoin has caught the attention and imagination of many people. They are fascinated and excited.
BlackRock CEOthis one is for JJG:
Nearly every bitcoin only daily DCA’er is now in profit, no matter when they first started dollar cost averaging.
https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1672245387183243264
June 23, 2023, 01:04:55 PM
June 23, 2023, 01:01:25 PM
Sure feels like we’re back to up only. With leveraged funds entering the mix now I expect a ton of volatility and there are lots of investors who will have reason to pump Bitcoin now. I wish we’d seen a spot ETF first and things like this a year from now, so we’ll have to see how it goes. It seems early for the market to be pumping BTC into a bubble.
I don't think this is the real "up only" bull market pump. This is probably a usual intermediary cycle pump with afterwards corrections.
We will probably stay around 25k-35k levels (with some wicks) for the next 1 - 1.5 years.
June 23, 2023, 01:00:52 PM
Never underestimate that the halving is coming.
June 23, 2023, 12:56:12 PM
........
Let's enjoy the "spoils" of a much appreciated strong bull run.
Let's enjoy the "spoils" of a much appreciated strong bull run.
Agreed!.. Lets enjoy the spoils!
June 23, 2023, 12:50:39 PM
Bitcoin is far from the bubble of any sort, but I am turning cautious on the rest of the market:
1. Speculative names had peaked, witnessed by ARKK showing a nice summit.
2. SC will render a decision on student loans on Tue. If they reject student loan forgiveness (as most expect), then the logical direction is down for a bit.
3. Fed reserve would not "like" to have a continuation of the bull into rising rates (which they will probably do in July). I expect a small bump in some inflation number, which would give them the "go ahead" signal for 0.25 or maybe even 0.5 ("one and done"). BOE went for a 0.5% increase recently.
Haven't decided if i want to actively "play" these developments or just stay put.
1. Speculative names had peaked, witnessed by ARKK showing a nice summit.
2. SC will render a decision on student loans on Tue. If they reject student loan forgiveness (as most expect), then the logical direction is down for a bit.
3. Fed reserve would not "like" to have a continuation of the bull into rising rates (which they will probably do in July). I expect a small bump in some inflation number, which would give them the "go ahead" signal for 0.25 or maybe even 0.5 ("one and done"). BOE went for a 0.5% increase recently.
Haven't decided if i want to actively "play" these developments or just stay put.
June 23, 2023, 12:42:08 PM
Sure feels like we’re back to up only. With leveraged funds entering the mix now I expect a ton of volatility and there are lots of investors who will have reason to pump Bitcoin now. I wish we’d seen a spot ETF first and things like this a year from now, so we’ll have to see how it goes. It seems early for the market to be pumping BTC into a bubble.
June 23, 2023, 12:26:34 PM
June 23, 2023, 12:18:29 PM
Bitcoin why you are pumping over $31k? Are you okay or is there something special that's making you to move higher than $31k? Ah, buddy I'm pumping because of the BlackRock EFT, and that thing has created huge amount of greed in the brains of the investors. I will pump more for sure, just wait and watch! 
June 23, 2023, 12:08:41 PM
Apparently, it's spot not futures.
Just one source here, the first I found.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-spot-bitcoin-etf-new-sec-filings-wisdomtree-invesco
Just one source here, the first I found.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-spot-bitcoin-etf-new-sec-filings-wisdomtree-invesco
I read that it is a leveraged futures fund, which is definitely not spot. The idea that the SEC is not approving a spot ETF to protect investors but just approved a leveraged futures fund is absolutely laughable. They’re literally doing the exact opposite. I don’t even know what to say anymore. It’s all manipulated at the highest levels to take ordinary people’s money.
I'm not very well versed with that topic, but since Coinbase is said to serve as their custodian, there are at least real Bitcoins in storage involved in that ETF / trust, no?
On the other hand it wouldn't surprise me a bit that US regulators continue to oppose the mass buying of Bitcoin by institutions via an ETF.
Within two days $35000
mmh somehow I feel you are not very confident with your predictions.
50k end of June.
Could it be that you are making bullish comments to gain merits?
if you are confident about your predictions, would you be willing to put your money (BTC) where your mouth is?
Would you bet on your "50k end of June" prediction ?
Here we go again... escrow anyone?
99% sure he won't bet any significant amount anyways...
June 23, 2023, 12:04:31 PM
So first etf futures ?
First leveraged futures etf. Which is hillarious.---
Ok so Gary is letting retail get leveraged exposure to derivatives contracts but not access to spot.
The protectoor
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1672284547466051595
-----------
June 23, 2023, 12:03:25 PM
June 23, 2023, 11:50:17 AM
Within two days $35000
mmh somehow I feel you are not very confident with your predictions.
50k end of June.
Could it be that you are making bullish comments to gain merits?
if you are confident about your predictions, would you be willing to put your money (BTC) where your mouth is?
Would you bet on your "50k end of June" prediction ?
Here we go again... escrow anyone?
June 23, 2023, 11:50:08 AM
[edited out]
@JJG...sooner or later...developers would have to address concerns like mine.
Some others state that the loss rate is maybe even 4% a year now, which is kind of high (https://blog.trezor.io/what-happens-to-lost-bitcoin-71eb5a80cc74).
I think that it is inevitable that some solution would be advanced (once we find out the actual rate of loss).
Could some solutions cause a fork? Hopefully not, but we shall see.
However I see most of bitcoiners solidly supporting the idea of no more than 21 mil btc, but maybe not the idea of a constant decrease in that number (or what is actually available).
To me, personally, the idea of supply shriveling to a few bitcoins and then dealing with fractions of satoshi to buy houses sounds positively Kafkaesque.
EDIT: btw, that hisslyness post you fondly refer to does not 'work' if we lose a set number of bitcoins per year (around 286K or 1.36% of the whole supply). He actually made a distinction between 75 years (in his calculation) counting as a fixed number lost/year OR 1231 years if a fixed % of current supply is lost for a year. I was talking about the former, but it flew over your head somehow. Sometimes you just need to read stuff more carefully.
I doubt that the specifics of the calculation really matter very much, and you may well be correct that I did not get too much into the details of your bad maths and your bad sciences because even if hissleness might not have said it very well, if there is anything like a 1% to 4% per year shrinkage in the bitcoin supply, then that is going to cause upwards price pressures that are higher than what we might have already considered - absent some of the effects of the various paper bitcoin.. .. and surely in the end, he also made the point that if there is high loss of bitcoin, then likely people are going to become more inspired to take more careful precautions not to be losing their cornz. .since they are likely going to be going up in value at a higher rate based on the combination of lowering of the new issued supplies (with the reduction of the halvenings shrinking the new issuance to zero) combined with ongoing losses of coins that could be of varying rates, and even if we might get down to having ONLY 1 coin in a few hundred years, then the BTC price will likely adapt to such a shortage of the supply, and whether there are more actions needed beyond merely going down to lower and lower decimal places might be a question of conjecture.. because surely satoshis could end up getting divided into 8 digits or even an infinite number of digits -
to quote a famous government/banking official.
There are an infinite number of digits within a satoshi... problem solved, no?
You will (or you should) thank me later, once you go back and study your maths and your sciences.
Also Protip: make sure to guard your cornz because they are going to be worth more and more and more, and even more than you previously thought that they were going to be worth between 2014 and 2019 when you were whimpily stacking them (or failing/refusing to stack them - relatively speaking) ...
I consider myself open minded and always try to look at both sides of the argument. I spent most the day trying to agree with you, Biodom, and find reasons that may support your theory of the evaporation of all Bitcoins within 50 or so years.
I tried to imagine different scenarios of how this could play out, how we could lose 250k+ bitcoin every single year. Maybe all the heads of Binance takes a deep sea dive to look at the Mariana Trench and something catastrophic happens, without leaving their privkey behind. Maybe the Gemini Twins goes climbing Everest and don’t make it back down.
Maybe a hidden malware/bug in the Trezor hardware wallet locks all Trezor out after a certain date. Rendering all Trezor wallets inaccessible. Maybe Saylor decides to take control of his own keys and sends to an incorrect address.
Then I started to think, why am I talking about just these big names with big wallets? Am I just looking for scenarios to fit the narrative…
Then it clicked to me…. The one thing you have forgotten to take into consideration, the one most import aspect.
VALUE!
You’re looking at past historical numbers to derive an average of what you perceive to be a norm moving forward. However, you haven’t taken VALUE into consideration.
Losing 100k Bitcoins ($425K) in 2011 is different to losing 100k bitcoin ($3B) in 2023 and 100k Bitcoins in 2040 (~$35B). Market participants and adoption rates were different, the appreciation and valuation of Bitcoin was lower, hence minimal security and blasé in handling/storing and transmitting Bitcoin was all too common. How many times have we read about the guy who threw away a computer holding 8,000 Bitcoins or similar stories early on…
I am not saying access to bitcoins will never be lost. There always going to be errors made in handling/storing and transmitting Bitcoin, but with the VALUE of bitcoin appreciating everyday and more and more participants enter, better education, easier access, different custody options. You will not see the same number of losses we have seen in the past. The VALUE of the losses may well be same, year on year, but the amount of Bitcoin will not! Hence there will never be an evaporation of ALL Bitcoins.
Very well may be, but you are making an unproven conjecture.
In the best case scenario you would be dealing with progressively declining volume of available bitcoin. Granted, each unit can 'blow up" and each satoshi can be worth $1000 many years from now, but to me, it would be a gross distortion of a fixed supply idea.
Personally, I would be much more content if bitcoin can actually maintain the total available btc at 21 mil (or whatever current issued number beforehand).
I don't know what could be the mechanism, but progressive and large shrinkage of supply is unattractive to me.
It turns out, Satoshi had an omission in his code (that allowed for cycles to restart in 256 years), but who knows, maybe it was something subconscious on his part. It is in a way quite similar to Einstein's cosmological constant. Einstein introduced it to make the Universe stationary (in simple terms, introducing something that prevents collapse of the Universe into a singularity via gravity), next he set the value of it to zero because of Hubble, but it turned out that the value of that constant is a positive number (albeit a very small one), resulting in the acceleration of expansion of the Universe.
My analogy is that we need to find/encode a 'residual' bitcoin add-on after all bitcoin is issued, perhaps, or maybe even earlier (if the loss is linear and and not decreasing as value increases) to maintain btc volume close to or exactly at 21 mil. Mathematically, if bitcoin loss is a certain number of coins per year (and not a % loss of the current), then, with no issuance after 2140, the total number of available bitcoin will be trending to an inevitable zero.
Additionally, I was struck by the fact that P. Wuille felt that it was important to institute BIP-42, even though, Satoshi's "omission" would not come to play until year 2265, yet, the large apparent loss of bitcoin and, especially, a complete lack of knowledge as to what the current rate of the loss is, did not elicit any response so far.
Btw, this is all long term stuff, we all would probably be gone when it comes to play, totally irrelevant to the current vigorous bull market.
I just thought that, intellectually, it is an interesting area to talk about, but I am pretty much done talking about it.
Let's enjoy the "spoils" of a much appreciated strong bull run.
June 23, 2023, 11:48:30 AM
Within two days $35000
mmh somehow I feel you are not very confident with your predictions.
50k end of June.
Could it be that you are making bullish comments to gain merits?
if you are confident about your predictions, would you be willing to put your money (BTC) where your mouth is?
Would you bet on your "50k end of June" prediction ?
June 23, 2023, 11:47:52 AM
There are a few leveraged futures based ETFs already, I think. The recent hype always had the "spot" word in it. It might have been just hype though. The matter can't be too hard to settle, however. Isn't the application publicly available? I think it should be, since I remember the dark wording about forks.
June 23, 2023, 11:44:27 AM
Apparently, it's spot not futures.
Just one source here, the first I found.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-spot-bitcoin-etf-new-sec-filings-wisdomtree-invesco
Just one source here, the first I found.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-spot-bitcoin-etf-new-sec-filings-wisdomtree-invesco
I read that it is a leveraged futures fund, which is definitely not spot. The idea that the SEC is not approving a spot ETF to protect investors but just approved a leveraged futures fund is absolutely laughable. They’re literally doing the exact opposite. I don’t even know what to say anymore. It’s all manipulated at the highest levels to take ordinary people’s money.
June 23, 2023, 11:41:38 AM
Welcome to 2023 ATH
Jump to: